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2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

At least we will still get a descent soaking. I just installed 40k worth of plants on campus and haven’t turned on the irrigation yet

Yup.  Had light rain.  Turned to moderate for a bit now.  Nothing extreme.  Downpour right now but much more tame overall than what was shown over the ocean.  

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2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Yup.  Had light rain.  Turned to moderate for a bit now.  Nothing extreme.  Downpour right now but much more tame overall than what was shown over the ocean.  

For some reason that has been the theme lately. It’s like a boost from the Gulf Stream and then fizzle. 50/60 degree water temps are very stable. Once you get into the 70/80 range convection fires 

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Clouds broke in parts of the New York City area sending temperatures into the 70s. Islip reached 76°. A few showers overspread the region from south to north during the late afternoon and evening. Up north, temperatures rose into the 80s and even 90s. High temperatures included:

Albany: 84°
Bangor: 91° (old record: 87°, 1961)
Boston: 86° (tied record set in 1879)
Burlington: 88° (old record: 86°, 1961)
Caribou: 82° (old record: 81°, 1961) ***4th consecutive record high***
Concord: 89°
Hartford: 84°
Manchester, NH: 91° (old record: 81°, 2004 and 2018)
Montreal: 87° (old record: 85°, 2004)
Portland: 84° (old record: 81°, 1961)

Tomorrow will see more sunshine with readings rising into the middle and perhaps upper 70s. Monday will be very warm, but there will be the risk of strong thunderstorms as a cold front crosses the region. After a slight cooldown during the middle of next week, the warmest weather of the year so far is possible next weekend.

Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around April 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +19.25 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.432 today.

On May 12 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.621 (RMM). The May 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.372 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.6° (0.4° above normal).

 

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10 hours ago, bluewave said:

I wonder if this is the first time that the same cutoff low caused rain on two consecutive Saturdays?

May 7th

6A4ADC9D-9935-48EC-AB9B-898B85C9F6BF.thumb.png.b0d86ff2a104fcf528d630709e0bced5.png

May 14th
 

E3048E42-74C1-4DAC-864B-D6545350FE4F.thumb.png.d4532aac573a1266f5681a2b24fffd90.png

how long does it take for a cutoff low to disintegrate on its own if it doesn't go anywhere?

It has to sometime right-- eventually high pressure will fill up the low and it will dissipate.

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

how long does it take for a cutoff low to disintegrate on its own if it doesn't go anywhere?

It has to sometime right-- eventually high pressure will fill up the low and it will dissipate.

It’s theoretically possible given the right circumstances for one to last forever. Lows do not just “fill” as long as there is moisture transport from the ocean. 

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The next 8 days are averaging  73degs.(62/84) or +9.

Over the next 10 days the highest T is 99 on the GFS, 84 on the CMC, and just 80 on the EURO again.     GFS has been the star here for a week.       The projection below is always based on the GFS so it could be wack-a-doo.

1653156000-0Gnba4Gq5sw.png

Month to date is  59.0[-2.0].     Should be near  64.0[+2.0] by the 23rd.

Reached 67 yesterday.

Today: 68-75, wind w.-n.w., breaks in clouds by 1pm, 64 tomorrow AM.

58*(99%RH) here at 7am FOG <0.10mi.{was 57-60 overnight}     62* at 9am, still foggy.       68* at 11am and still foggy, but lifted some.     69* at Noon, fog mostly gone, some clouds,  but   66* at 1pm.      65*-67* during last 3 hours, with good sun-but continually varying fog, 4pm.

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s theoretically possible given the right circumstances for one to last forever. Lows do not just “fill” as long as there is moisture transport from the ocean. 

That makes me wonder are there actually storms that just keep circling the earth over and over again?

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