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I wonder what our record is for consecutive days with an easterly component to the wind? The easterlies began back on Friday. The models all continue the easterly flow into next weekend as the cutoff gets stuck under the near record 588 dm block over New England. 


1F01F1C1-8E74-4277-8D73-4F3E411C2D21.png.d34e0100a36a48c61e8631442d70f5ec.png

 

 

A6E5271A-C06A-45A3-92EC-DCAD9D6B5962.thumb.png.d5e24216924068632200e82e0fbcf5ec.png
 

 

9A02F08B-059C-4F51-8493-D838ABECD7EF.thumb.png.cc752ca98eb52efb9956a744a7253b5c.png

 

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15 hours ago, bluewave said:

Temperatures finally getting back closer to normal this week into next weekend. Looks like a mix of 60s some days and 70s on the warmer days around NYC . The cutoff low stalling to our south will maintain the onshore flow. 
 

1A6127B1-129A-4F14-BC61-2D9D6D366157.thumb.png.65a00e449b15ec471d5c01a72a0ed763.png

19388C28-94A2-4C2A-9A09-6D883B1AF019.thumb.png.cddc4b5b0904dfb4374d4f289f8e2223.png

3B93574A-5603-4BD3-85A0-2F2CB9905B88.thumb.png.17b6fc2db1303743310a32c25621210b.png

 

How long does it take a storm to "die" or dissipate if it doesn't move at all?  10 days?

 

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How long does it take a storm to "die" or dissipate if it doesn't move at all?  10 days?

 

It’s going to come back north next weekend into the following week  with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. So it eventually weakens the block to the north. This allows another trough to park over the Northeast by day 8-10. 
 

DC85D0DF-D7F9-4B51-8C39-235FFF0FD2D0.thumb.png.8d2be5bdba4abacd015d163a3c3b3d9e.png

77DC859F-4143-4167-8597-973C2586E156.thumb.png.44ba4361fbbb58eebaed9d9079aea9b7.png

 

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It’s going to come back north next weekend into the following week  with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. So it eventually weakens the block to the north. This allows another trough to park over the Northeast by day 8-10. 
 
DC85D0DF-D7F9-4B51-8C39-235FFF0FD2D0.thumb.png.8d2be5bdba4abacd015d163a3c3b3d9e.png
77DC859F-4143-4167-8597-973C2586E156.thumb.png.44ba4361fbbb58eebaed9d9079aea9b7.png
 
What a surprise

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It’s going to come back north next weekend into the following week  with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. So it eventually weakens the block to the north. This allows another trough to park over the Northeast by day 8-10. 
 

DC85D0DF-D7F9-4B51-8C39-235FFF0FD2D0.thumb.png.8d2be5bdba4abacd015d163a3c3b3d9e.png

77DC859F-4143-4167-8597-973C2586E156.thumb.png.44ba4361fbbb58eebaed9d9079aea9b7.png

 

That's bad for the eclipse!  And it sounds like the month will end up below normal.

Is this how nature balances the scales after we get a mild winter?  Seems to happen quite often.

Also, how is it this kind of thing almost never happens in winter? At least I don't ever remember this ever happening in winter.

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s going to come back north next weekend into the following week  with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. So it eventually weakens the block to the north. This allows another trough to park over the Northeast by day 8-10. 
 

DC85D0DF-D7F9-4B51-8C39-235FFF0FD2D0.thumb.png.8d2be5bdba4abacd015d163a3c3b3d9e.png

77DC859F-4143-4167-8597-973C2586E156.thumb.png.44ba4361fbbb58eebaed9d9079aea9b7.png

 

:thumbsdown:  Personally, I'm so done with this pattern.  Bring back the cool weather in the Fall and send us into the deep freezer during the winter, but give it a rest until then!

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5 hours ago, tek1972 said:

What a surprise emoji849.png

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Temperatures will still likely end up a tad AN during next couple weeks so mid to upper 70s.

Perfectly beautiful mid-late May weather. The summer heat can wait till it's actually summer. 

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Very comfortable spring temperatures for our area the next few weeks. The record breaking heat stays to our north and west this week. Then the trough returns next week with cooler to near seasonable temperatures. 

EPS

May 9-16

20F4044D-CD00-4B66-8B21-4E45F3C30343.thumb.png.35a496d8fbae399cbc463170853b6aca.png


0D21ADA9-F796-4737-BD1F-DE02340EEC84.thumb.png.21e3ff58aff3ae7fd85ee9211eb0435b.png


May 16-23

66C7038C-EE38-4E2E-8A49-05BE9E44545E.thumb.png.ef39d7e56523996c38d17b1ec1a9f33e.png

1760A7E8-14A0-4C83-8495-83E3E196AE69.thumb.png.a210d616b7c5aab566362a228aa989ed.png

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Very comfortable spring temperatures for our area the next few weeks. The record breaking heat stays to our north and west this week. Then the trough returns next week with cooler to near seasonable temperatures.

That's actually not as bad as I thought it would be.  I'd be happy with some sunny skies and seasonable May temps.  Keep a lid on the cold, damp, stuff until autumn though haha.

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47 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

That's actually not as bad as I thought it would be.  I'd be happy with some sunny skies and seasonable May temps.  Keep a lid on the cold, damp, stuff until autumn though haha.

The wildcard this summer may be how the rare continuation of the La Niña into a 3rd year plays out. We already had 4 consecutive above normal summers for warmth since 2018. Maybe we can catch a break on the heat relative to the last several years. But cooler summers have been tough to come by since 2010. Even less warm would feel cool compared to all the record summer heat since 2010.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The wildcard this summer may be how the rare continuation of the La Niña into a 3rd year plays out. We already had 4 consecutive above normal summers for warmth since 2018. Maybe we can catch a break on the heat relative to the last several years. But cooler summers have been tough to come by since 2010. Even less warm would feel cool compared to all the record summer heat since 2010.

the summer of 2000 was the last third consecutive la nina summer...1975, 1956 and 1910 were others...not one of them were hot...

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90 degree days for Newark NJ since 1933...for recent years 2014 and 2017 had less than average 90 degree days...

year.....total...cons...max...total 100 days...

1933.....18.....….5.....101.....1

1934.....18...…...5.....100.....1

1935.....14...…...3...….96

1936.....22...…...5.....104.....2

1937.....22...…...5.....100.....1

1938.....18...…...3...….95

1939.....24...…...3......95

 

1940.....15...…...5......99

1941.....27...…...4......97

1942.....15...…...2......98

1943.....31...…...4.....102.....2

1944.....39...…...8.....102.....4

1945.....24...…...5...….99

1946.....11...…...3......95

1947.....22...…...4......99

1948.....26...…...6.....103.....2

1949.....36...…...8.....105.....8

 

1950.....18...…...4...….98

1951.....18...…...3...….96

1952.....31...…...6.....102.....1

1953.....32...….11.....105.....6

1954.....18...…...3.....103.....2

1955.....32...…...6.....101.....4

1956.....14...…...5...….99

1957.....28...…...5.....101.....1

1958.....21...…...3...….96

1959.....40...…...5.....100.....1

 

1960.....13...…...4...….94

1961.....34...…...4...….98

1962.....14...…...4...….98

1963.....20...…...6.....100.....1

1964.....26...…...4...….99

1965.....26...…...4...….97

1966.....33...…...5.....105.....5

1967...….7...…...3...….95

1968.....23...…...4...….98

1969.....15...…...3...….96

 

1970.....22...…...5...….94

1971.....22...…...5...….96

1972.....21...….12...….96

1973.....31...….11.....100.....1

1974.....18...…...4...….98

1975.....12...…...4...….98

1976.....14...…...3...….93

1977.....26...…...9.....102.....2

1978.....16...…...5...….98

1979.....20...…...5...….96

 

1980.....27...…...4.....101.....2

1981.....21...…...8...….98

1982.....12...…...4.....100.....1

1983.....40...…...7...….99

1984.....22...…...5...….97

1985.....11...…...3...….97

1986.....22...…...5.....100.....1

1987.....37...…...8...….98

1988.....43...….20.....101.....5

1989.....27...…...6...….99

 

1990.....26...…...4...….98

1991.....41...…...7.....102.....2

1992.....22...…...3...….98

1993.....49...….10.....105.....9

1994.....39...…...5.....102.....2

1995.....33...….12.....104.....1

1996...….9...…...3...….99

1997.....20...…...6.....101.....2

1998.....21...…...4...….98

1999.....33...…...8.....103.....3

 

2000.....16...…...4...….96

2001.....22...…...5.....105.....3

2002.....41...….10.....100.....2

2003.....20...…...5...….95

2004.....13...…...2...….97

2005.....37...…...5.....102.....3

2006.....31...….10.....101.....3

2007.....21...…...4...….97

2008.....22...…...7...….99

2009.....11...…...7...….95

 

2010.....54...….14.....103.....4

2011.....31...…...5.....108.....4

2012.....33...….11.....104.....3

2013.....25...…...7.....101.....2

2014.....15...…...3...….96

2015.....35...…...9...….98

2016.....40...…...8...….99

2017.....22...…...4...….99

2018.....36...…...6...….98

2019.....27...…...4...….99...

 

2020.....31.........6......96...

2021.....45.........5....103.....2

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Readings will again rise into the 60s tomorrow and then mainly in the 70s through the remainder of the week.

Northern New England, including Burlington, could ultimately see near record to record warm temperatures Thursday through Saturday. There, temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 80s.

Overall, the first 10 days of the month will probably feature a cool anomaly with temperatures averaging 3°-5° below normal with a few colder spots. The second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around April 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +34.57 today. That was the highest reading since December 26, 2021 when the SOI was +46.71. It was the highest May figure since May 16, 2013 when the SOI reached +35.64.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.265 today.

On May 7 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.478 (RMM). The May 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.570 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 49% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.1° (0.1° below normal).

 

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2 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

jesus it’s dry i need chapstick for this shit

Good evening Will. I’ll wait for your lips to heal; I should, by that time, work up enough courage to ask about the 2 for 1 special. Stay well and hydrated, as always ….

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1 hour ago, uncle W said:

90 degree days for Newark NJ since 1933...for recent years 2014 and 2017 had less than average 90 degree days...

year.....total...cons...max...total 100 days...

1933.....18.....….5.....101.....1

1934.....18...…...5.....100.....1

1935.....14...…...3...….96

1936.....22...…...5.....104.....2

1937.....22...…...5.....100.....1

1938.....18...…...3...….95

1939.....24...…...3......95

 

1940.....15...…...5......99

1941.....27...…...4......97

1942.....15...…...2......98

1943.....31...…...4.....102.....2

1944.....39...…...8.....102.....4

1945.....24...…...5...….99

1946.....11...…...3......95

1947.....22...…...4......99

1948.....26...…...6.....103.....2

1949.....36...…...8.....105.....8

 

1950.....18...…...4...….98

1951.....18...…...3...….96

1952.....31...…...6.....102.....1

1953.....32...….11.....105.....6

1954.....18...…...3.....103.....2

1955.....32...…...6.....101.....4

1956.....14...…...5...….99

1957.....28...…...5.....101.....1

1958.....21...…...3...….96

1959.....40...…...5.....100.....1

 

1960.....13...…...4...….94

1961.....34...…...4...….98

1962.....14...…...4...….98

1963.....20...…...6.....100.....1

1964.....26...…...4...….99

1965.....26...…...4...….97

1966.....33...…...5.....105.....5

1967...….7...…...3...….95

1968.....23...…...4...….98

1969.....15...…...3...….96

 

1970.....22...…...5...….94

1971.....22...…...5...….96

1972.....21...….12...….96

1973.....31...….11.....100.....1

1974.....18...…...4...….98

1975.....12...…...4...….98

1976.....14...…...3...….93

1977.....26...…...9.....102.....2

1978.....16...…...5...….98

1979.....20...…...5...….96

 

1980.....27...…...4.....101.....2

1981.....21...…...8...….98

1982.....12...…...4.....100.....1

1983.....40...…...7...….99

1984.....22...…...5...….97

1985.....11...…...3...….97

1986.....22...…...5.....100.....1

1987.....37...…...8...….98

1988.....43...….20.....101.....5

1989.....27...…...6...….99

 

1990.....26...…...4...….98

1991.....41...…...7.....102.....2

1992.....22...…...3...….98

1993.....49...….10.....105.....9

1994.....39...…...5.....102.....2

1995.....33...….12.....104.....1

1996...….9...…...3...….99

1997.....20...…...6.....101.....2

1998.....21...…...4...….98

1999.....33...…...8.....103.....3

 

2000.....16...…...4...….96

2001.....22...…...5.....105.....3

2002.....41...….10.....100.....2

2003.....20...…...5...….95

2004.....13...…...2...….97

2005.....37...…...5.....102.....3

2006.....31...….10.....101.....3

2007.....21...…...4...….97

2008.....22...…...7...….99

2009.....11...…...7...….95

 

2010.....54...….14.....103.....4

2011.....31...…...5.....108.....4

2012.....33...….11.....104.....3

2013.....25...…...7.....101.....2

2014.....15...…...3...….96

2015.....35...…...9...….98

2016.....40...…...8...….99

2017.....22...…...4...….99

2018.....36...…...6...….98

2019.....27...…...4...….99...

 

2020.....31.........6......96...

2021.....45.........5....103.....2

I love this!  Can you do one just like this for JFK please with the same 4 columns included?  How far back does their temperature record go?

 

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6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Very comfortable spring temperatures for our area the next few weeks. The record breaking heat stays to our north and west this week. Then the trough returns next week with cooler to near seasonable temperatures. 

EPS

May 9-16

20F4044D-CD00-4B66-8B21-4E45F3C30343.thumb.png.35a496d8fbae399cbc463170853b6aca.png


0D21ADA9-F796-4737-BD1F-DE02340EEC84.thumb.png.21e3ff58aff3ae7fd85ee9211eb0435b.png


May 16-23

66C7038C-EE38-4E2E-8A49-05BE9E44545E.thumb.png.ef39d7e56523996c38d17b1ec1a9f33e.png

1760A7E8-14A0-4C83-8495-83E3E196AE69.thumb.png.a210d616b7c5aab566362a228aa989ed.png

 

 

 

 

record breaking heat in Texas too

 

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