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May 2022


bluewave
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It continues to looks like the period around or just after the 20th will feature the first 90s potential of the season for the local warm spots. It’s impressive how the first 90° day of the year has been steady around May 20th since 1981 at Newark. But the first 70° has moved up a month from March 27th in 1981 to near March 1st in 2021. The first 70° in late February and the early bloom this year fit the pattern also. So an earlier start to spring while summer hasn’t moved up in time. This pattern is reversed in the fall with the last 90° occurring later creating the endless summer pattern.

E98E3591-150F-46D8-BD1F-10BB63709328.thumb.jpeg.9756e99d84852fde95f8078cdc8c0818.jpeg

CEDA46BC-9187-4B81-B194-CEF06681F70F.thumb.jpeg.731fb68616949f6ea0d6421045467607.jpeg

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The New York City area saw mainly cloudy conditions with a few breaks in the clouds. Temperatures reached the lower 70s. Yet again, record high temperatures fell from the Midwest to Canada. Records included:

Buffalo: 85° (tied record set in 2004 and tied in 2011 and 2014)
Burlington: 88° (old record: 84°, 1985)
Caribou: 90° (old record: 78°, 1992) ***2nd earliest 90° temperature***
Chicago: 89° (tied record set in 1956 and tied in 1991)
Fredericton, NB: 85° (old record: 81°, 1969)
La Tuque, QC: 91° (old record: 88°, 1977)
Madison: 92° (old record: 88°, 1977) ***Earliest 4-day heatwave by 16 days***
Manchester, NH: 88° (old record: 84°, 2012)
Moline, IL: 94° (old record: 91°, 1915)
Montreal: 87° (old record: 83°, 1992)
Ottawa: 86° (old record: 83°, 1985)
Quebec City: 88° (old record: 74°, 1998)
Rivière-du-Loup, QC: 80° (old record: 69°, 1998)
Rockford, IL: 92° (old record: 88°, 1940 and 1991)
Sherbrooke, QC: 86° (old record: 70°, 2008)
Trois-Rivières, QC: 88° (old record: 72°, 2016)

Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with perhaps another shower or two. Temperatures will top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Sunday will see more sunshine with readings rising into the middle and perhaps upper 70s.

Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around April 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +24.45 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.304 today. That surpassed the old daily record +2.708 from 1992.

On May 11 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.364 (RMM). The May 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.048 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.3° (0.1° above normal).

 

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10 hours ago, bluewave said:

It continues to looks like the period around or just after the 20th will feature the first 90s potential of the season for the local warm spots. It’s impressive how the first 90° day of the year has been steady around May 20th since 1981 at Newark. But the first 70° has moved up a month from March 27th in 1981 to near March 1st in 2021. The first 70° in late February and the early bloom this year fit the pattern also. So an earlier start to spring while summer hasn’t moved up in time. This pattern is reversed in the fall with the last 90° occurring later creating the endless summer pattern.

E98E3591-150F-46D8-BD1F-10BB63709328.thumb.jpeg.9756e99d84852fde95f8078cdc8c0818.jpeg

CEDA46BC-9187-4B81-B194-CEF06681F70F.thumb.jpeg.731fb68616949f6ea0d6421045467607.jpeg

Looks like the highest positive anomalies will be near the coast?  Maybe we can get close to 90 here too.

 

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The next 8 days are averaging  69degs.(59/78) or +5.

Month to date is  58.5[-2.3].       Should be 62.5[+0.5] by the 21st.

Reached 69 here yesterday.

Today:  64-69, wind s.e., cloudy, fog, rain after 3pm.

GFS,EURO have the 90's next weekend.    CMC just 80.      GFS has the most rain through Tues. now at about 1".      It had the least formerly.                                     JWB, April 26, 1865...... ......."USELESS, USELESS".

59*(99%RH) here at 7am, FOG <0.2mi.     65* at 10am.     67* at 11am.  Fog variable.     59* at 8pm.

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Morning thoughts…

Today could be a near carbon copy of yesterday. It will be mostly cloudy and mild. There could be some fog and also some showers. Most of the day will be dry. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 72°

Newark: 74°

Philadelphia: 73°

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and warmer.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 71.0°; 15-Year: 71.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 72.1°; 15-Year: 73.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 73.9°; 15-Year: 74.5°

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59 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The latest Euro has mid 90s for the usual warm spots from NJ to the Long Island North Shore. Not sure if JFK can reach 90° since the model is showing a SW flow. But maybe JFK can pull it off if the winds are a bit more WSW than forecast. It does look like the first 70° dewpoint potential of the season for JFK. It will be interesting to see if Newark can beat the 96° high for May last year. That was good enough for the 4th warmest in the month of May. But May 1996 remains the hottest at 99°.

 

36FC1C8C-E49C-41BB-ACBE-C582064D8EE8.thumb.png.767108a4ebd3ec62aa4010d7db1e7a00.png


39061F8B-89FC-4437-9582-D1FB9B50FA17.thumb.png.c6b211e8532934791b896b9887f1a072.png

 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1996 99 0
2 1992 98 0
- 1987 98 0
- 1962 98 0
3 1965 97 0
4 2021 96 0
- 2016 96 0
- 1969 96 0
- 1964 96 0

 

 

I remember that-- it turned out to be the hottest day of the entire year and it only hit 90 once more that year after May, and that was on the last day of August!  We went through almost the entirety of summer without a single 90 degree day!  It was very humid too!  I remember one day was overcast with a temp of 80 and humidity of 100%!

I believe Islip hit 98 or 99 too.

 

Question-- why is it that none of the local forecasts have this kind of heat predicted-- they all say we're going to be in the 70s next Saturday?

I see 1992 up there too!  I don't remember that heat at all!  Wasn't 1992 the year without a summer-- Pinatubo made that summer very cold-- it was another one without any 90s!

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

You know it’s an over the top warm up when Caribou gets to 90° before Newark. 
 

 

We really lucked out that we're not seeing 80s and 90s however it seems the over the top ridging is gonna be a mainstay during spring/summer. 

This means a lot of cloudier onshore spring days and very wet/humid weather during the summer. 

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