May 2022 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1991-2020 averages for

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Contest deadline for on-time entries 06z Sunday May 1st. Late penalties apply thereafter. 

There will be a summer seaonal max contest added to the June contest thread. 

Good luck. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

DCA +2.0 NYC +1.5 BOS +1.5 ORD +3.0 ATL +2.0 IAH +2.0 DEN +2.5 PHX +2.5 SEA +1.5

[hardypalmguy]

19 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

DCA +2.0 NYC +1.5 BOS +1.5 ORD +3.0 ATL +2.0 IAH +2.0 DEN +2.5 PHX +2.5 SEA +1.5

How are you seeing a ridge in the Great Lakes but NWS is showing a trough?

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA +1.1

NYC +1.1

BOS +1.1

ORD  -1.1

ATL  +1.7

IAH  +1.4

DEN  +0.2

PHX  +0.6

SEA  -0.2

[wxdude64]

DCA:  +0.8

NYC:  +0.6

BOS:  +0.6

ORD:  -0.8

ATL:  +0.8

IAH:  +1.2

DEN:  +1.4

PHX:  +1.8

SEA:  +0.4

[wxallannj]

DCA:  -1.6

NYC:  -1.8

BOS:  -2.0

ORD:  -2.0

ATL:  -0.5

IAH:  +0.3

DEN:  -0.5

PHX:  +2.5

SEA:  -0.5

 

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.6      1.4        1.4       0.8      1.2     1.0         0.4      0.9     -2.0

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

0.2      -0.1     -0.5     -2.8     1.8      2.1       -0.5     1.0      -0.8     

[bkviking]

DCA:  +0.5

NYC:  +0.5

BOS:  +0.2

ORD:  -0.2

ATL:  +1.0

IAH:  +1.3

DEN:  +0.8

PHX:  +1.2

SEA:  +0.2

i don’t have a good feel. April turned our colder than I thought . A bit gun shy now. Cool start NE with warmer finish ? 

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0       1.0       0.5       0.5      1.5     1.5        0.5      1.5     1.0

[Roger Smith]

-1.5 __ -1.5 __ -1.7 __ -2.2 __ -1.2 __ -0.5 __ +3.5 __ +4.0 __ -1.5

[so_whats_happening]

DCA +1.6

NYC +1.5

BOS +1.3

ORD  -0.5

ATL  +1.3

IAH  +1.8

DEN  +1.2

PHX  +2.2

SEA  -0.5

[Tom]

DCA +0.8

NYC +0.9

BOS +1.1

ORD  -0.6

ATL  +1.2

IAH  +1.1

DEN  -0.2

PHX  +0.9

SEA  -0.6

[Rjay]

DCA:  +1.5

NYC:  +1.5

BOS:  +1.5

ORD:  +1.5

ATL:  +1.5

IAH:  +2 0

DEN:  +1.5

PHX:  +1.5

SEA:  -1.0

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts for May 2022

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Stormchaser Chuck ________+2.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +3.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5

so_whats_happening _______+1.6 _ +1.5 _ +1.3 _ -0.5 __ +1.3 _ +1.8 _ +1.2 _ +2.2 _ -0.5

RJay ____ (-1%) ____________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +1.5 _ +2.0 __+1.5 _ +1.5 _ -1.0

hudsonvalley21 ____________ +1.1 _ +1.1 __ +1.1 __ -1.1 __ +1.7 _ +1.4 __ +0.2 _ +0.6 _ -0.2

Scotty Lightning ___________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.0

Tom _____ (-1%) _____________+0.8 _ +0.9 _ +1.1 _ -0.6 _ +1.2 __ +1.1 _ -0.2 _ +0.9 _ -0.6

___ Consensus ______________+0.8 _ +1.0 _ +0.6 _ -0.5 _ +1.3 _ +1.4 _ +0.7 _ +1.5 _ -0.5

DonSutherland1 ____________ +0.8 _ +1.4 _ +1.4 _ +0.8 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 _ +0.4 _ +0.9 _ -2.0

wxdude64 __________________+0.8 _ +0.6 _ +0.6 _ -0.8 _ +0.8 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 _ +1.8 _ +0.4

BKViking ____________________+0.5 _ +0.5 _ +0.2 _ -0.2 _ +1.0 _ +1.3 _ +0.8 _ +1.2 _ +0.2

RodneyS ____________________+0.2 _ +0.1 __ -0.5 _ -2.8 _ +1.8 _ +2.1 _ -0.5 _ +1.0 _ -0.8

___ Normal __________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

Roger Smith ________________ -1.5 _ -1.5 __ -1.7 _ -2.2 __ -1.2 _ -0.5 __ +3.5 _ +4.0 _ -1.5

wxallannj ___________________ -1.6 _ -1.8 __ -2.0 _ -2.0 __ -0.5 _ +0.3 __-0.5 _ +2.5 _ -0.5

___________________________________

Consensus for 12 forecasts is mean of 6th and 7th ranked (median). 

Color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts. 

 

[Roger Smith]

Day late getting to this ... anomalies and projections ...

 

___________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

12th ___ (11d anom) ______ -4.3 _-3.5 _-3.9e __+0.5 _+2.4 _+6.2 __ +2.0 _+2.5 _-5.5

12th ___ (p21d anom) ____ -2.0 _-2.0 _-2.0 ___+3.5 _+3.0 _+5.0 __ +2.0 _+2.5 _-4.5

12th ___ (p28d anom) ____ -1.0 _-1.0 _-1.0 ___ +2.5 _+2.5 _+4.0 __ +2.0 _+2.5 _-3.5

 

22nd ___ (21d anom) _____ 0.0 _ -0.4 _+0.7e __+4.0 _+3.4 _+5.7 __ +1.1 _+2.4 _-5.7

22nd ___ (p31d anom) ___ +1.0 _+1.0 _+2.0 __ +3.5 _+3.0 _+4.5 __ -0.5 _+2.0 _-4.0

 

1st __ (actual May anom)_+0.6 _+0.8_ +2.1 __ +3.1 _ +2.7 _+3.5 __ -0.6 _+2.1 _-4.9

 

_______

(11th) _ The very warm air mass now covering central U.S. states will probably modify back towards more average anomalies as it slowly works its way east and mixes in with a cooler variant left over from a coastal nor'easter. The result will likely be a slow moderation of current large negative anomalies in the east and continued warming for central locations, with an interruption expected in a few days. Western locations will stay fairly similar to current anomaly pattern with very cool air over the Pac NW only gradually relenting slightly. A hurricane depicted in the GOM near end of the model run could bring anomalies down at IAH if it comes ashore around there. Otherwise it looks like quite a warm month for IAH. 

No new snowfalls noted, most recent updates are in April thread. 

(22nd) _ The rest of the month looks fairly average with another burst of heat near the end in eastern regions. It will likely stay quite chilly in SEA, and somewhat warmer than average across the south. An additional 2.3" of snow was reported at DEN in the past few days; very chilly there for two days and the previously large anomalies have been reduced considerably. It should stay close to normal most of the way in now. 

(June 1st) _ Final anomalies now all posted and scoring adjusted.

[Roger Smith]

Confirmed scoring for May 2022

Scoring based on final end of month anomalies. (see previous post).

*score includes 1 pt deduction

SEA scored by "max 60" progression with adjustments to reflect forecast differentials. (no raw scores would have exceeded the progression scores which were 60, 55, 50 ... 10, 05) .. some of the middle range were further boosted to maintain roughly the same proportionate scoring.

 

FORECASTER ______________DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA_west__ TOTAL

DonSutherland1 ____________ 96 _ 88 _ 86 __ 270 __ 54 _ 70 _ 50 __ 174 _ 444 _ 80 _ 76 _ 60^_ 216 ___ 660

RJay ____ (-1%) _____________ 81*_ 85*_ 87*_ 253 __ 67*_ 75*_ 69*_ 211 _ 464 _ 57*_ 87*_ 50^_ 194 ___ 658 

Tom _____ (-1%) _____________ 95*_ 97*_ 79*__ 271 __ 36 _69*_ 51*_ 156 _ 427 _ 91*_ 75*_ 42^_208 ___ 635

Stormchaser Chuck ________ 72 _ 86 _ 88 __ 246 __ 98 _ 86 _ 70 _ 254 _ 500 _ 38 _ 88 _ 05^_ 131 ___ 631

Scotty Lightning ____________ 92 _ 96 _ 68 __ 256 __ 58 _ 76 _ 60 _ 194 __ 450 _ 78 _ 88 _ 10^_ 176 ___ 626

so_whats_happening _______ 80 _ 86 _ 84 __ 250 __ 28 _ 72 _ 66 _ 166 __ 416 _ 64 _ 98 _ 40^_ 202 ___ 618

___ Consensus ______________ 96 _ 96 _ 70 __ 262 __ 28 _ 72 _ 58 _ 158 __420 _ 74 _ 88 _ 35^ _ 197 ___ 617

RodneyS ____________________ 92 _ 86 _ 48 __ 226 __ 00 _ 82 _ 72 _ 154 _ 380 _ 98 _ 78 _ 46^_ 222 ___ 602

BKViking ____________________ 98 _ 94 _ 62 __ 254 __ 34 _ 66 _ 56 _ 156 _ 410 _ 72 _ 82 _ 24^_ 178 ___ 588

hudsonvalley21 _____________ 90 _ 94 _ 80 __ 264 __ 16 _ 80 _ 58 _ 154 __ 418 _ 64 _ 70 _ 30^_ 164 ___ 582

wxdude64 ___________________96 _ 96 _ 70 __ 262 __ 22 _ 62 _ 54 _ 138 __400 _ 60 _ 94 _ 18^_ 172 ___ 572

___ Normal __________________ 88 _ 84 _ 58 __ 230 __ 38 _ 46 _ 30 _ 114 __ 344 _ 88 _ 58 _ 26^_ 172 ___ 516

wxallannj ____________________ 56 _ 48 _ 18 __ 122 ___ 00 _ 36 _ 36 _ 072 __194 _ 98 _ 92 _ 40^_ 230 ___424

Roger Smith _________________ 58 _ 54 _ 24 __ 136 ___ 00 _ 22 _ 20 _ 042 __178 _ 18 _ 62 _ 55^_ 135 ___ 313

___________________________________

EXTREME FORECASTS

BOS, ORD and ATL are wins for Stormchaser Chuck with warmest forecasts. 

IAH is a win for RodneyS with warmest forecast.

DEN would is a shared win for RodneyS and wxallannj with coldest forecasts.

SEA is a win for DonSutherland1 with coldest forecast. 

[Roger Smith]

___<<< ____________ Annual Scoring Report (Jan-May 2022) _______________>>>___

Total scores for each location, region ... best scores for locations in red, for regions in bold type.

With most scores fairly similar in May, there was only one set of changes in ranks; wxallannj dropped from third to eighth, so those who had been fourth to eighth after April are now third to seventh. Normal dropped two spaces as well with both RJay and Scotty Lightning moving ahead, so that Normal is now between 10th and 11th, and also there is a prorated score for Stormchaser Chuck (2985), based on 5/3 times actual score, and with that he would be around the same total as our fourth ranked total. 

Consensus is now just ahead of third place Tom. 

 

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA __west __ TOTAL

 

wxdude64 ______________ 343 _389 _419 __1151__299 _383_ 262__944 _2095 __310 _388 _327 __1025 ____3120

DonSutherland1 _________ 364 _370 _388 __1122 __370 _346 _192__908 _2030 __318 _400 _340 __1058 ____3088

 

___ Consensus ___________344 _362 _358 __1064__294 _368 _228__890 _1954__342 _398 _319 __1059 ____3013

 

Tom _____________________347 _357 _323 __1027__312 _359 _339__1010 _2037 __379 _367 _226 __972 ____3009

so_whats_happening ____ 316 _348 _396 __1060__301 _362_ 236 __899 _1959 __292 _396 _342 __1030____2989

RodneyS _________________320 _316 _312 __ 948 __248 _366 _270 __884 _1832 __396 _404 _318 __1118____2950

BKViking _________________344 _350 _334 __1028__270 _344 _198 __812 _1840 __332 _380 _304 __1016____2856

hudsonvalley21 __________300 _336 _360 __ 996 __276 _348 _254 __878 _1874 __298 _378 _298 __974____2848

wxallannj ________________288 _300 _326 __ 914 __272 _326 _226 __824 _1738 __362 _394 _324 __1080____2818

RJay _____________________341 _363 _339___1043__339 _351 _211 __ 901 _ 1944 __ 293 _ 317 _248 __858____2802

Scotty Lightning _________300 _330 _340 __ 970 __212 _326 _234 __ 772 _ 1742 __ 324 _386 _238 __948____2690

_____ Normal _____________296 _318 _290 __ 904 __230 _326 _254 __810 _ 1714 __348 _352 _264 __964 ____2678

Roger Smith ______________220 _228 _138 __ 586 __162 _ 234 _184 __580 __1166 __ 354 _368 _317 __1039____2205

Stormchaser Chuck (3/5) _256 _266 _235 __ 757 __162 _ 260 _154 __ 576 __1333 __ 138 _197 _123 __ 458 ____1791

__ prorated Stormchaser Chuck would compare at 2985 total points. 

===========================================

Best Forecasts _ 

* tied for high score with one other forecaster __ ^ tied for high score with three others (Mar). 

(Bos and regions not entered yet)

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA _west _ total

wxdude64 _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Jan

DonSutherland1 __________ 2^___ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____3 ____ 1 ____ 2 __ Feb,May

___ Consensus ___________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

Tom ______________________ 1^___ 1 ___ 1 ____2 ____0 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Mar

so_whats_happening _____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1*____ 0

RodneyS _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

BKViking _________________ 2^___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

hudsonvalley21 __________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1*____ 0

wxallannj ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0

RJay ______________________ 1^___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Apr

Scotty Lightning __________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

___ Normal ________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0

Roger Smith _______________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0

Stormchaser Chuck _______ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 0

=========================

EXTREME FORECAST SCORING 

(second total in brackets adjusts for tied wins which are indicated by * in monthly logs only -- so far this has occurred three times, once for SEA in Feb, once for IAH in Apr and once for DEN in May.)

(in March, four shared a win for DCA shown by ^ -- this counts as 0.25 in the second bracketed total).

(wins for Normal are in addition to forecaster wins and do not replace them _ Normal is not charged with a loss _ would have done so in April for DEN)

So far, 32 of 45 forecasts qualify, 13 warmest and 19 coldest; Jan 0-5, Feb 4-4, Mar 2-2, Apr 3-6, May 4-2.

 

FORECASTER ____________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May __TOTAL (adj for ties)

 

Roger Smith ______________ --- _ 1- 1 _ 2-0 _5-1_ --- __ 8-2

DonSutherland1 __________ --- _ 4-0*_ 1-0^_1-0_ 1-0 __ 7-0 (5.75 - 0)

Tom ______________________ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 2-0^_1-0_ 1-0*__ 6-0 (4.75 - 0)

Stormchaser Chuck _______ 2-1 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 3-0 __ 5-1

wxdude64 ________________1-0 _ 3-0*_ --- _ ---_ --- __ 4-0 (3.5 - 0)

RJay ______________________ --- _ --- _ 1-0^_ 1-0*_--- _ 2-0 (0.75 - 0)

so_whats_happening ______ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 1-0 _ ---__ 2-0

____ Normal _______________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- __ 2-0

RodneyS __________________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 2-0*__ 3-0 (2.5 -1)

hudsonvalley21 ___________ --- _ --- _ --- _ 1-1* _ --- __ 1-1 (0.5 - 1)

BKViking __________________ --- _ --- _ 1-0^_ --- _ --- __ 1-0 (0.25 - 0)

Scotty Lightning __________ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _ --- __ 0-0

wxallannj __________________--- _ --- _ 0-1 _ --- _ --- __ 0-1

===============================

[Roger Smith]

Four Seasons contest __ spring 2022 portion _ Mar 2022, Apr 2022, May 2022

 

The table is arranged in order of total points for the first half of the four seasons contest.

 

____________________________WINTER ____ Winter ______ SPRING __ Spring

FORECASTER ______________ TOTAL _____ Points ______ TOTAL ___ Points ___ Contest Total

 

Don Sutherland 1 ____________1623 _______ 10 __________ 1962 _______ 7 _______ 17

RodneyS ____________________ 1600 _______ 7 ___________ 1868 ______ 5 _______ 12

Tom _________________________1309 ________ 1 ___________1973 ______ 10 _______ 11
 

__ Consensus _______________ 1513 _______ 3.5__________ 1865 _______4.9 ______ 8.4

 

wxdude64 __________________ 1535 _______ 4 ___________ 1820 _______ 4 ________8

RJay ________________________ 1351 _______ 1 ___________ 1952 _______ 6 ________ 7

 

wxallannj ____________________1572 _______ 6 ___________ 1646 _______ 1 ________ 7

hudsonvalley21 _____________ 1540 _______ 5 ___________ 1692 _______ 1 ________ 6

so_whats_happening ________ 1499 _______ 3 ___________1770 ________3 ________ 6

BKViking ____________________ 1467 ________2 ___________1762 ________2 ________ 4

__Normal ____________________ 1173 ________ 1 ___________1630 ________1 ________ 2

Scotty Lightning _____________ 1138 _______ 1 ___________1750 ________ 1 ________ 2

Roger Smith _________________ 1043 _______ 1 ___________1413 _________1 ________ 2

Stormchaser Chuck __________ 674 (1/3) ___ 0 __________ 1117 (2/3) ___1 ________ 1

Deformation Zone ____________430 (1/3) ___ 0 _______________ -- -- ____ 0

============================================

Scoring is based on 10 for first place, 7 for second, down to 2 points for 7th and 1 point for anyone else who entered at least 2/3 of contests. 

Consensus and Normal can score decimal points if their totals are between two forecaster totals 2 to 10, and the decimal is based on the position relative to those forecasters. 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Snowfall Forecast Contest Departures (errors)

_ Probable Final Results (season ends June 30th)

 

This table will track the departures of each forecaster, those which are in italics and underlined are forecasts already passed by actual amounts; those departures (errors) can only increase with more snow. All other departures (errors) can be reduced by new snowfalls. The actual snowfalls are the latest available for each station. A reminder, our contest is based on total winter snowfall, not any portion such as Dec to Mar, so it includes anything that might fall in April and May. 

 

The table is now in order of least total departures.  

 

_________________________________ DCA __NYC __BOS ___ ORD __DTW __BUF __ DEN __SEA __BTV ___ Total dep

 

(to date -- May 31) _____________ 13.2 __ 17.9 __ 54.0 ___ 32.8 __ 47.1 ___ 97.4 __49.4 __ 9.2 __70.7 

 

 

RodneyS ________________________ 12.8 __ 25.0 __ 45.0 __ 54.0 __ 42.0 __ 91.0 __ 48.0 __12.0 __ 75.0 

RodneyS _________________________ 0.4 ___ 7.1 ____ 9.0 ___ 21.2 ___ 5.1 ____ 6.4 ___ 1.4 __ 2.8 ___ 4.3 ______ 57.7

 

Roger Smith ______________________17.5 __ 32.5 __ 50.7 __ 44.8 __ 49.5 __107.2 __ 52.0 __10.5__ 82.2

Roger Smith ______________________ 4.3 __ 14.6____ 3.3  __ 12.0 ___ 2.4____ 9.8 ___ 2.6 ___ 1.3 __ 11.5 ______ 61.8 

 

DonSutherland 1 __________________9.4 __ 27.3 __ 44.9 __ 35.1 __ 28.3 __ 84.0 __ 43.4 __ 9.5 __ 71.5 

DonSutherland 1 __________________3.8 ___ 9.4 ___ 9.1 ____ 2.3 __ 18.8 ___13.4 ___ 6.0 __ 0.3 ___ 0.8 ______ 63.9 

 

RJay _____________________________ 5.0 __ 20.0 __ 42.0 __ 40.0 __ 34.0 __ 90.0 __ 50.0 __13.0 __100.0 

RJay _____________________________ 8.2 ____ 2.1 __ 12.0 ____ 7.2___13.1 ____ 7.4 ___ 0.6 ___ 3.8 __ 29.3 _____ 83.7

 

wxallannj ________________________12.0 __ 28.0 __ 36.0 __ 38.0 __ 36.0 __ 92.0 __ 41.0 __ 11.0 __ 95.0 

wxallannj ________________________ 1. 2 __ 10.1 ___ 18.0  ___ 5.2 ___ 11.1  ___ 5.4 ____8.4 ___1.8 __ 24.3 ______ 85.5

 

hudsonvalley21 __________________11.6 __ 30.3 __ 33.8 __ 32.7 __ 32.4 __ 94.0 __ 45.0 __10.2 __108.8 

hudsonvalley21 __________________ 1.6 __ 12.4 __ 20.2 ____ 0.1 ___14.7 ____3.4 ____4.4 ___ 1.0 ___ 38.1 ______95.9  

 

so_whats_happening _____________16.0 __ 34.0 __ 62.0 __ 41.0 __ 45.0 __ 74.0 __ 36.0 __11.0 __ 91.0 

so_whats_happening ______________2.8 __ 16.1 ____ 8.0 ___ 8.2 ____2.1 __ 23.4 ___ 13.4 ___1.8 __ 20.3 ______ 96.1

 

wxdude64 _______________________20.0 __ 38.0 __ 54.0 __ 52.0 __ 47.0 __104.0__ 58.0 __13.0 __105.0 

wxdude64 ________________________ 6.8 __ 20.1 ____0.0 __ 19.2 ____ 0.1 ___ 6.6 ___ 8.6 ___3.8 __ 34.3 _____ 100.5

 

Tom ______________________________17.7 __ 36.9 __ 46.1 __ 48.7 __ 47.8 __ 94.4 __ 65.2 __ 8.1 __102.2 

Tom ______________________________ 4.5 __ 19.0 ___ 7.9 ___ 15.9 ___ 0.7 ___ 3.0 ___ 15.8 ___1.1 ___ 31.5 ______ 101.4  

 

BKViking _________________________ 8.0 __ 28.0 __ 42.0 __ 44.0 __ 25.0 __ 88.0 __ 55.0 __22.0__ 85.0 

BKViking _________________________ 5.2 ___ 10.1 ___12.0 __ 11.2 __ 22.1 ____ 9.4 ____ 5.6 __12.8 __ 14.3 _____ 102.7  

 

Deformation Zone ________________ 8.0 __ 18.0 __ 36.0 __ 38.0 __ 44.0 __ 70.0 __ 24.0 __ 4.0 __ 86.0 

Deformation Zone ________________ 5.2 ____ 0.1 __ 18.0 ____5.2 ___ 3.1 ___ 27.4 __ 25.4 __ 5.2 __ 15.3 _____ 104.9

 

 

Scotty Lightning _________________10.0 __ 23.0 __ 38.0 __ 44.0 __ 38.0 __106.0 __ 49.0 __ 7.0 __129.0 

Scotty Lightning _________________ 3.2 ___ 5.1 ____16.0 __ 11.2 ____ 9.1 ____ 8.6 ___ 0.4 ___ 2.2 __ 58.3 ______ 114.1 

 

 

mean of forecasts _______________12.3 __ 28.4 __ 44.2 ___ 42.7 __ 39.1 __ 91.2 __ 47.2 __10.9 __ 94.2

mean of forecasts _______________ 0.9 __ 10.5 ____ 9.8 ____ 9.9 ____8.0 ___ 6.2 ___ 2.4 ___ 1.7 ___23.5 _______ 72.9 (3rd-4th)

 

====================================

 

These departures will continue to be updated but as of May 31st the contest is probably finished. 

Congrats to RodneyS -- a little more snow at DEN and I could have taken this one.