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May 2022 Thread


weatherwiz
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11 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It is ...

It's a specter portrayed, beginning about 3 days ago in the guidance, and since they've all agreed ...some more or less aggressively, that the previous big heat suggestion is getting completely obtruded by that aspect bullying in like cops showing up precisely 2 minutes before the party would have really gotten good.  heh

I am a little suspect of any solutions that 'hold it back' like a pregnant water balloon full of cold air and mank, tenuously unpopped,  down into Essex Co in NE Mass.

If it gets to that point it gets to TTN NJ

 

That's an apt analogy. It's certainly been a persistent trend on the models for a few days now. Knowing how these go, it would not surprise me to see SPC throw an enhanced or moderate risk right up to the edge of the summer side of it for a day or two next week while the other side rots away in the clammy gloom. GYX says the culprit is stubborn troughing in the maritimes running up against a block and retrograding. I've certainly seen the trend in the past where these end up barreling down to Philly or DC when initially they're forecast to halt in CNE. If that happens, ME and NH may at least get some sun out of it.

 

11 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

Good, keep that high dew sweaty crack stuff down there

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

We each have our own preferences, but I'd much prefer sun and heat with convection potential to low ceiling 40s on the eve of met summer.

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Meanwhile, Freak’s doing naked rain angels in inches of it 

It rains every day there. That’s why there’s so many breweries. People get angry and start drinking. 

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Congrats Wolfie and Lukas

Screenshot_20220529-071822_Chrome.jpg

I know New England typically doesn’t have to many brush fires after green up but I remember a 100 acre fire we went to in Douglas State forest June/July in the late 90’s

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13 hours ago, Saguaro said:

That's an apt analogy. It's certainly been a persistent trend on the models for a few days now. Knowing how these go, it would not surprise me to see SPC throw an enhanced or moderate risk right up to the edge of the summer side of it for a day or two next week while the other side rots away in the clammy gloom. GYX says the culprit is stubborn troughing in the maritimes running up against a block and retrograding. I've certainly seen the trend in the past where these end up barreling down to Philly or DC when initially they're forecast to halt in CNE. If that happens, ME and NH may at least get some sun out of it.

 

We each have our own preferences, but I'd much prefer sun and heat with convection potential to low ceiling 40s on the eve of met summer.

Right ( bold ..).  And we're still getting inconsistencies in the position of the BD's movement over time.  Latest guidance seems to backed off on that. 

Five days ago, the Euro had no clue that a BD would be there.  None of them did. Then the GFS hinted ( uh oh...), four days ago but the Euro still carried a big heat signal with less of that...  Three days ago they were all in, though, and the heat was completely redrawn... 97 to 57 style.  Thing is, BD party pisser in the models is/was a correlative fit for -NAO ... ( I mentioned this in the presently marooned June thread that Jerry started). Then, these last two day, the models deepened the 50/50 vortex, pinning it in place ... A BD should really intrude.  

It's like 'why in f spend time on such minutia' ... I think being 92 versus 60 is pretty impressive correction to have to deterministically negotiate if one is a forecaster.

Here we are two days ...those over-arcing themes are still in place, yet the Euro trends considerably less in both the 00z and 06z versions.  The GFS too ...The GFS ... in a rare show of parity -

For a forecaster .. it's a good thing this contention wasn't during today and tomorrow - lol.. Because the variation across the boundary could be as much as 54 at BVY, to 94 at EWR  (Beverly Mass/N shore of Boston vs Newark, NJ).  It would make a difference for yard and pool parties, huh

 

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Tomorrow may make 91.

It's funny where we were with the modeling ideas for today and tomorrows, as stood 5 days ago.  Especially the GFS, which had 50s in mist when not raining east wind shits.

                                              52                                                92

That's why we always trust a 5 day depiction LOL

BD still there but a bit less intrusive in recent runs.  Unclear ... As I just mentioned to Saguaro, it's more apt to happen than not in a -NAO.  But as is, the BD is delayed 6 to 9 hours, and, it also appears to wash out before even getting to NYC.   hmm.   Not sure I'd trust that if CT.  If the -NAO is regime does pin a 50/50-like vortex ivo of NF, a boundary between continental heat ejected from the W will set up between.  Experience alone teaches us that if see one on the map ice-bergs knock on the door in Atlantic Georgia.  heh.  If the new runs were to continue the back-off trend in an equal redraw, that keeps the boundary to about PWM or so and we swelter through Tuesday. I am not personally leaning that way

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What a classic door modeled for Tuesday. Morning showers/storms move off the Maine coast and out to sea. Door thrown back west in its wake. Anyone who went to UML spent a whole lecture learning about this scenario.

Wonder if we can get any convection on the door. Lifted indices are -5 or so and a remnant EML going overhead?

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4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

What a classic door modeled for Tuesday. Morning showers/storms move off the Maine coast and out to sea. Door thrown back west in its wake. Anyone who went to UML spent a whole lecture learning about this scenario.

Wonder if we can get any convection on the door. Lifted indices are -5 or so and a remnant EML going overhead?

Looking forward to the door, l just like seeing something interesting weather wise 

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