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May 2022 Thread


weatherwiz
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26 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Models seem to be hinting at over-the-top mcs activity Monday night.  Hope that holds

It appears the GGEM and GFS favor a short total wave length ( i.e., the ridge is 'sharper' in the up down circuitous structure), as it centers over ~ eastern OH.  

The Euro was as amplified in the z-coordinate heights, but it was also not as short in that regard - fwiw. The new run is coming out now, so we'll see.  The GFS has been fighting this next ridge/heat surge...

But the former two are MCS tracking/favoring.  They also would not likely allow uninterrupted heat- they both outright show a Tuesday am screen door slamming flag whipping backdoor blast.  Whether that happens or not... that's what they are showing.  Tuesday afternoon has most of eastern NE with temps down into the 50s before dark, and probably slate skies have slabbed in from the NE in those depictions/handling.

It's suspicious that immediately the following afternoon, it's rolled back out and flooded the region back close to 90.  That's atypically too fast. 

But ...it's all moot if the synoptic wave lengths are being erroneously shortened -a  flatter ridge orientation wouldn't allow any of that to begin with.

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3 hours ago, dendrite said:

Mine haven't reached that caliper yet although I do have a wild one in the back woods that's a good 2-3" diameter now and beginning to fissure on the bark...so we'll see how it does.

Most of mine are from here:

https://www.gonativetrees.com/american-chestnut/

 

Seeing tolerance of the blight is a great sign, perhaps better than not seeing blight at all.  The nicest chestnuts I ever saw were planted in 1969 next to Forestry's entomology lab in Augusta.  By the mid 90s they were 60-65' tall and arrow straight with small limbs, and no sign of blight.  Some folks old enough to recall pre-blight chestnuts said those Augusta trees were the best replicas of the great form of the chestnuts of the past.  Then the 1998 ice storm took out about half of those trees' branches, and 2 years later they were all dead.  Obviously the healthy and fast-growing trees had kept their defenses (in this case, uninjured bark) intact, until the '98 catastrophe.  All those wounds plus the blight inoculant already present ensured the trees' fate.

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26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It appears the GGEM and GFS favor a short total wave length ( i.e., the ridge is 'sharper' in the up down circuitous structure), as it centers over ~ eastern OH.  

The Euro was as amplified in the z-coordinate heights, but it was also not as short in that regard - fwiw. The new run is coming out now, so we'll see.  The GFS has been fighting this next ridge/heat surge...

But the former two are MCS tracking/favoring.  They also would not likely allow uninterrupted heat- they both outright show a Tuesday am screen door slamming flag whipping backdoor blast.  Whether that happens or not... that's what they are showing.  Tuesday afternoon has most of eastern NE with temps down into the 50s before dark, and probably slate skies have slabbed in from the NE in those depictions/handling.

It's suspicious that immediately the following afternoon, it's rolled back out and flooded the region back close to 90.  That's atypically too fast. 

But ...it's all moot if the synoptic wave lengths are being erroneously shortened -a  flatter ridge orientation wouldn't allow any of that to begin with.

Yeah it's all moot being outside of D3.  12z Euro pressure pattern would suggest/agree with the GEM and GFS anyway

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7 hours ago, radarman said:

The drought in 65-66 was no joke in these parts.  Quabbin set the low bar for water levels way beyond anything we've seen.  A couple years ago it got to the lowest level since 66, but wasn't close to that.

quabbin-reservoir-drought-level-oct-13-1

What a great (and terrifying at the time) pic.  IIRC, the NYC water supply was down to a low number of weeks when the 9/21/66 deluge arrived - followed by normal/AN precip afterwards.

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4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah it's all moot being outside of D3.  12z Euro pressure pattern would suggest/agree with the GEM and GFS anyway

All three are bullying that look in as a party crash/new look ... we'll see. 

They seem to have opted to park a vortex near or SE of NF, which is a continuity break. But also causes that BD to get sent SW...

We're talking about D6 so it could just be another peregrination to fend off.  The N Atl. isn't the best modeled domain of the models. 

 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Most of the 24 tomato plants are flowering as of today . Glad we planted these in early May. Will be a huge and early crop. These warm summers are great for gardens .

2VFd8Do.jpg

The major COC stretch since 5/9 has certainly helped. Seasons behaving like seasons, be thankful for mid spring.

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

But the former two are MCS tracking/favoring.  They also would not likely allow uninterrupted heat- they both outright show a Tuesday am screen door slamming flag whipping backdoor blast.  Whether that happens or not... that's what they are showing.  Tuesday afternoon has most of eastern NE with temps down into the 50s before dark, and probably slate skies have slabbed in from the NE in those depictions/handling.

It's suspicious that immediately the following afternoon, it's rolled back out and flooded the region back close to 90.  That's atypically too fast.

Yea, that's almost impossible to happen. The two most recent incursions this month show why. It's hard enough just getting a warm front to progress past the CT-Merrimack river valley areas, and even in the cases when said front has supposedly moved to northern ME/QC on WPC surface maps, there is this persistent, annoying tendency where the airmass is still contaminated to some degree, enough to significantly hinder max temps and dewpoints, along with any interesting convection.

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41 minutes ago, Saguaro said:

Yea, that's almost impossible to happen. The two most recent incursions this month show why. It's hard enough just getting a warm front to progress past the CT-Merrimack river valley areas, and even in the cases when said front has supposedly moved to northern ME/QC on WPC surface maps, there is this persistent, annoying tendency where the airmass is still contaminated to some degree, enough to significantly hinder max temps and dewpoints, along with any interesting convection.

That last example of that playing out was particularly frustrating ...but the frustration - for me - was really not the low level lag ... it was that WPC can't or don't and won't account for that some how, some way, in their surface synopsis.    Like you intimated ...and they had the warm front up near Fryeburg Maine while Bedford Ma was still 68 with ESE flow.  Fitchburg was 78 and BDL was 90 ...  I mean it did flood through later in the day ( Saturday) but it took hours to get that lowest 2,000 feet really down to the Earth.

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36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m allergic to so many foods. I grow them for the fun and for fam and friends. I have 16 pepper plants of various types  . Those I can eat .

Oh' bummer, I didn't know.  I think everyone has types of food and other allergies but when they are pronounced it makes you stand up and pay attention.  Wheat (gluten), nightshade, dairy allergies are all very prevalent.  

You're lucky you don't have hop allergies! 

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Very chilly here in Chatham 

So yesterday I dropped my wallet outside of a store that I shopped at and couldn't find it all day . I canceled all my credit cards and ordered a new license and registration. 

This guy messages my wife today on Facebook and says that he has my wallet. He picked up my wallet and brought it home and tried to reach me. He eventually found us through the wedding site.

I went to his house and picked up my wallet this evening. If this was NYC my wallet would have been gone.

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3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Very chilly here in Chatham 

So yesterday I dropped my wallet outside of a store that I shopped at and couldn't find it all day . I canceled all my credit cards and ordered a new license and registration. 

This guy messages my wife today on Facebook and says that he has my wallet. He picked up my wallet and brought it home and tried to reach me. He eventually found us through the wedding site.

I went to his house and picked up my wallet this evening. If this was NYC my wallet would have been gone.

Im glad there are "still" good people that do the right thing.....and congrats to you and your bride.

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