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May 2022 Thread


weatherwiz
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You have to consider the air mass's source-origin ( straw man).  

Draw a line on a map from about Portsmouth, NH to Willimantic, CT ...anywhere west of that ~ demarcation, a NE wind is not bad or necessarily 'cold' in this scenario.   That gradient/trajectory is pulling down from a region exhausted of cold, and is in fact capable of warming under both May sun, and tending to be d-slope.  

East of that approximate line ... there is more modulation by the ocean...but even here, this air mass is not like an afternoon aggressive sea breeze, where the air temp that's moving west is a direct SST processed air mass and thus reflects the Harbor temps. 

Long of the short ... despite the onshore look of the gradient through early Wednesday, those interior/west zone will make out for some nice afternoons, as the gradient also gradually eases and the skies get more and more clear.   Already markedly improved sky conditions...  Morning vis loop suggests it may also evap further (trend) and really just expose us to more sun even today.

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It just seems ( straw man ) like the warm up for the end of the week has been abused by the models. They keep manifesting new reasons to limit the residence of the general ridge appeal.  The latest renditions have included BDs Thursday ... which, one cannot argue really against given the local climate. But within a run or two, that's backed off and we see less of that. Can't leave well-enough alone, though ...now, the models are bullying in a rapid flip of the -PNA (the oper's have been struggling to avoid all along) right back into a +PNAP. 

It's sort of a new forcing but between this front side oddity collapsing S down the MA ... taking ages to do so and gobbling up time, and that new aspect in the extended, this warm up we've been waiting for is really not far from being taxed down to a mere daily warm sector.

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6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Looking forward to getting back to shorts tees and flip flops. May has sucked so far. Trees are exploding. Pollen city but it is spring we deal as usual. No shuddering man up as they say.

Not here ...

I admit to wondering this just about every spring ( haha) - whether the leaf out is late and all that jazz.  But this year?  No question - no wondering about it.  The larger trunk types, like sugar maple and oaks. and other major player tree species have almost nil bud swell. 

I DEFINITELY have never seen us enter the 2nd week of May, with those tree types still dormant.  

 

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not here ...

I admit to wondering this just about every spring ( haha) - whether the leaf out is late and all that jazz.  But this year?  No question - no wondering about it.  The larger trunk types, like sugar maple and oaks. and other major player tree species have almost nil bud swell. 

I DEFINITELY have never seen us enter the 2nd week of May, with those tree types still dormant.  

 

Valleys here are going nutz. Oaks nothing but yea usually by May 7th we green but stick season in my hood. By Sunday next week I expect to have that day when you look up and suddenly realize how beautiful green is compared to stick season. 

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The Norwalks maples did flower around town about 2 weeks ago.. But they are in no hurry to unfurl actual leafs and the flowers are still in suspended bouquet.

It's a wonder what drives this ... Average April temperatures, or even above by decimals ...,  neither lends to 'behind schedule' canopy. 

I suspect - no proof... - that the nights being elevated ... sorta like "lied" about the what's been going on.  I wonder if the day time cold blustery aspect some how slammed things shut.  It's all conjecture for me.  Botany's not my thing

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not here ...

I admit to wondering this just about every spring ( haha) - whether the leaf out is late and all that jazz.  But this year?  No question - no wondering about it.  The larger trunk types, like sugar maple and oaks. and other major player tree species have almost nil bud swell. 

I DEFINITELY have never seen us enter the 2nd week of May, with those tree types still dormant.  

 

Let's see what it looks like in a week.

20220508_110248.jpg

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19 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What a stretch it’s been.  Into the low 60s already after a 27F and hard freeze again last night.

RH around 20% with dews 19-25F.

 you like hard freezes in May ?   Lol -   ... I know. 

Not sure about up where you are... but down here what's likely happen is a 24 hour abrupt rebound when this unrelenting NE trade flow finally collapses.  Maybe late tomorrow for you, early Wed in NYC ...est.   But the stymieing to rise has less transition time, sort of right to tower temperatures in lockstep with the cold feed abatement.   Machine guidance will undersell the rebound when the gradient falls to 0 and/or zephyrs in reverse.      

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The persistent, exceptionally low dews is what I believe has set all the vegetation so far back ~ 1 month vs the calendar. This year was a great test case.

I mean it makes sense for the plants and trees to key off this more than anything else—frosts and freezes are close with dews <35F. Not worth the risk to put in all the energy to budding/leafing with that around. 

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3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The persistent, exceptionally low dews is what I believe has set all the vegetation so far back ~ 1 month vs the calendar. This year was a great test case.

I mean it makes sense for the plants and trees to key off this more than anything else—frosts and freezes are close with dews <35F. Not worth the risk to put in all the energy to budding/leafing with that around. 

As good as any reason I've heard, yeah.  

I did consider that but I don't - personally - know how these above ground leafers know.  How do they detected DP?

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maybe even 'wind chill' how that happens...  Sap starts dripping from twig ends on some species in early March.  We used to collect 'sapsicles' ...

I wonder if the windier than normal conditions/CAA transports is key in that, because evaporation off the sprout points - dry air cooling.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 you like hard freezes in May ?   Lol -   ... I know. 

Not sure about up where you are... but down here what's likely happen is a 24 hour abrupt rebound when this unrelenting NE trade flow finally collapses.  Maybe late tomorrow for you, early Wed in NYC ...est.   But the stymieing to rise has less transition time, sort of right to tower temperatures in lockstep with the cold feed abatement.   Machine guidance will undersell the rebound when the gradient falls to 0 and/or zephyrs in reverse.      

lol to me the hard freezes signify nice weather.  You don't get that without a high-diurnal trend low RH type pattern.  We'll do close to a 40 degree swing today.

Ground and cars frozen white this morning with the heat on, while now doors and windows are wide open.

64F and full sun.

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