cstrunk Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, KSWx said: HRRR put on one of the more impressive performances I've seen; highly complex system and nearly nailed it from the hour it was in range. Absolutely. Also very interesting how many of the same general areas in Texas were affected tonight as they were a few weeks ago. At least for central and east/NE Texas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 18 minutes ago, cstrunk said: Absolutely. Also very interesting how many of the same general areas in Texas were affected tonight as they were a few weeks ago. At least for central and east/NE Texas. You good, no damage from the wind? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 Impressive, mature bowing MCS slamming Shreveport right now. Numerous circulations noted up and down the bow in northwestern Louisiana. Will be interesting to see how this system affects the risk tomorrow. Point forecast soundings show a bit of wind field disruption around 700-600mb across southern/eastern Arkansas and vicinity, in the wake of the MCS. It could also leave one or more outflow boundaries as well. I think tomorrow is a complex day with higher end potential, at least on a localized level. The only limiting factor may be a tendency for cells along the cold front to cluster/grow upscale. Similar to several events in recent weeks, not a ton of confidence with warm sector supercells. We may have a better idea after watching this MCS evolve through early morning… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 34 minutes ago, canderson said: You good, no damage from the wind? No damage at my house. Gusted 50-60 mph for a couple minutes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 :46 = Starship Enterprise tornado 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 Tang is the man 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 radar image from Salado TX today. I haven't done this GRLevel2 stuff for a while-- downloaded a new 21-day free trial, and maybe I'll maximize my 3D slice and high res possibilities central arkansas last night 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 What an ominous SPC outlook this morning. Not often they mention a risk of a violent tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 41 minutes ago, nwohweather said: What an ominous SPC outlook this morning. Not often they mention a risk of a violent tornado It’s also Broyles… but the parameter space is pretty volatile looking. Potent shear, rich low-level moisture, a bit of an EML. It’s not perfect, but it definitely has the potential to produce one or two intense supercells. Some CAMs, including recent HRRR runs show widespread semi discrete supercells blowing up this afternoon near, along and ahead of the cold front. Only concern there would be cell mergers and interactions, but it does seem ominous with locally backed winds near a residual outflow boundary across the AR/LA border area. Storm mode could get messy, but I’d focus the most intense tornado potential over northern LA, southern AR into western MS. We could have a localized outbreak on our hands. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 Sounds like SPC was tossing the HIGH risk around reading the 1300z SPC OTLK Guyer/Smith co-wrote the 1300z SPC OTLK FWIW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR/MS/TN/MO/IL/IN/KY... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today across the Mid-South and lower/middle Mississippi Valley and Midwest. Tornadoes, some of which will be strong, widespread and potentially significant damaging thunderstorm winds, and large hail are likely especially within the Moderate and Enhanced Risk areas. A severe-storm outbreak is expected today into tonight. Widespread severe storms are likely across a very broad north-south region from the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South into the Midwest, with atmospheric ingredients favorable for all severe hazards, including potentially significant/intense severe storms. ...Mid-South/Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley/Midwest... An upper trough, with its axis centered over the High Plains early today, will eject northeastward toward the Midwest/Ohio Valley, with a pronounced strengthening of mid/high-level jet stream winds (80-110 kt) particularly over the Ozarks/Midwest/Ohio Valley. These strong winds and related height falls/forcing for ascent will overspread a semi-moist boundary layer (low to middle 60s F surface dewpoints) across the Midwest ahead of an eastward-moving cold front, with more consequential moisture availability (upper 60s F) expected across the ArkLaTex/Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where severe/supercell-conducive wind profiles will exist even well south of the stronger portions of the polar jet. Speaking to early morning airmass characteristics, pre-dawn surface analysis in conjunction with 00z and 06z (via PERiLS project) upper-air analysis/trends reflect some air mass impacts via a persistent MCS and resultant MCV across western Tennessee and nearby ArkLaMiss. Observed meso-high and MCS-aftermath dry air in vicinity of the ArkLaMiss are expected to decay relatively early today, although these factors cast some uncertainty for the spatial details of later-day availability of rich moisture. For these reasons, along with a considerable amount of upstream early day convection/cloud cover, an upward adjustment to the current Moderate Risk category does not appear prudent at this time /13z/. That said, regarding the early day MCV/lingering outflow, an ample moisture reservoir over east Texas (850 mb dewpoints 12+C) is expected to largely replenish the broad warm/moist sector into the afternoon (reference 12z Shreveport LA observed sounding etc.), which will be beneath a notable eastward-extending elevated mixed layer. For short-term details across southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex, see Mesoscale Discussion 471. Regarding central/southern Missouri and western Illinois in the short-term, see Mesoscale Discussion 472. By midday/early afternoon, moderate to strong instability and steadily weakening CINH will be in place across Arkansas/Louisiana toward the Lower Mississippi Valley, where model forecasts have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Ample deep-layer/low-level shear will be favorable for supercells, initially capable of large hail and tornadoes. Discrete supercells ahead of the organizing squall line will have the potential for strong/intense tornadoes including some that are potentially long-track, particularly as the low-level jet further strengthens across the region later this afternoon into early evening. This corridor of stronger/longer-duration tornado concern is focused across the Mid-South/ArkLaMiss vicinity. Otherwise, potentially widespread/locally significant damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will also evolve as the squall line organizes, intensifies, and moves eastward with embedded bowing segments, although QLCS-related tornadoes can also be expected. The damaging wind/tornado risk may linger through the late-evening/overnight hours across portions of Mississippi/Alabama and southern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. This would be via a persistence of moist and strong/confluent low-level flow, although 850 mb winds are forecast to gradually weaken overnight. For areas northward into/across Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana, it appears likely that storms will increase and intensify initially across southern Missouri, as early as this morning in vicinity of the outflow-enhanced effective cold front. These storms will pose a damaging wind and some severe hail risk especially into the afternoon as they organize and race east-northeastward. The potential for tornadoes will exist as well, in dual scenarios including any pre-squall line supercellular development and within an evolving QLCS itself, especially as storms encounter a dramatically strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet (50-60 kt at 850 mb) across southeast Missouri and areas eastward across Illinois/Indiana/Kentucky. Tornadoes and potentially widespread/locally significant damaging winds are likely especially through the afternoon and early/mid-evening hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Quincy said: It’s also Broyles… but the parameter space is pretty volatile looking. Potent shear, rich low-level moisture, a bit of an EML. It’s not perfect, but it definitely has the potential to produce one or two intense supercells. Some CAMs, including recent HRRR runs show widespread semi discrete supercells blowing up this afternoon near, along and ahead of the cold front. Only concern there would be cell mergers and interactions, but it does seem ominous with locally backed winds near a residual outflow boundary across the AR/LA border area. Storm mode could get messy, but I’d focus the most intense tornado potential over northern LA, southern AR into western MS. We could have a localized outbreak on our hands. The SPC is considering a tornado watch for the Ark-la-tex region this morning. The HRRR is showing a line of storms/possible supercells in ETX by the 18-20z timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 12Z HRRR has quite the volatile environment over Mississippi this afternoon, though it has a bit of a tendency to overdo the extent of isolated convection. As is often the case in these setups, keep an eye out for areas a bit south of the highest risk areas, as they often produce discrete supercells even with somewhat less impressive dynamics, while areas within the main risk areas tend to grow upscale a bit quicker. Just for the heck of it, here's a cherry-picked sounding from AR this afternoon, SRH values are rather impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 Won't have to worry about the cap today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 Analyzing the lower Mississippi Valley portion of the threat area… Outflow boundary from overnight MCS draped from eastern Arkansas into central Mississippi. Richest low-level moisture is confined to Louisiana, but rapid air mass recovery is underway, thanks to a 50-60 knot low-level jet. Still noting some wind field disruption between the two boundaries, where there is some veer-back-veer signals (particularly over southeastern Arkansas. This could result in mixed storm modes with widespread thunderstorm activity developing this afternoon over eastern Arkansas. Even with some wind field issues, most data shows enlarging 0-3km hodographs and supercell wind profiles. Boundary interaction in this type of setup can be very complex. Do a few storms thread the needle and become intense, long track supercells? Or is it just a blobby mess. I think this is the difference between moderate and high risk I believe the most shot for somewhat more isolated supercell activity will be from Far East Texas into Louisiana and possibly southern Arkansas/western Mississippi. It’s going to be a busy day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 70/40 probs on the new tornado watch for the Arklatex region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 40/20 on the second tor watch for IL/MO SEL1 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 121 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Southeastern Missouri * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 1115 AM until 400 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of storms is expected to continue moving east-northeastward into southeastern Missouri and southern Illinois through early-mid afternoon. The primary severe threat will be damaging winds with bowing segments in the line, though embedded circulations will also pose the threat for a couple of tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of Carbondale IL to 30 miles southwest of Poplar Bluff MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 120... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Thompson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 Back in Texas, there is clearing ahead of the actual front, SPC RAP based meso seems to confirm that line is the front. MLCAPE ~2000 J/Kg, bulk shear 30 knots or higher N of I-10 (not a perfect description, more of a WSW-ENE orientation, CLL >30 knots, HOU not.) SPC analysis showing just a small area between the front and the clouds where CINH is below -25 k/Kg, is isn't even 10:30 solar time, HRRR is developing some storms later this afternoon, none look severe. Arkansas and Mississippi, different, but not my subforum. But the its seems severe happens here more often when the risk is low or none per SPC. HRRR, judging by updraft helcity, sees nothing in Texas. Marginal risk still on updated SWODY1 may mean the cap holds, even where there is clearing. But marginal may be low enough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Back in Texas, there is clearing ahead of the actual front, SPC RAP based meso seems to confirm that line is the front. MLCAPE ~2000 J/Kg, bulk shear 30 knots or higher N of I-10 (not a perfect description, more of a WSW-ENE orientation, CLL >30 knots, HOU not.) SPC analysis showing just a small area between the front and the clouds where CINH is below -25 k/Kg, is isn't even 10:30 solar time, HRRR is developing some storms later this afternoon, none look severe. Arkansas and Mississippi, different, but not my subforum. But the its seems severe happens here more often when the risk is low or none per SPC. HRRR, judging by updraft helcity, sees nothing in Texas. Marginal risk still on updated SWODY1 may mean the cap holds, even where there is clearing. But marginal may be low enough... Just a smidge too late for Dallas judging by radar. Waco has a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 3 pm CDT SREF SigTor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Just a smidge too late for Dallas judging by radar. Waco has a chance. Backbuilding to the SW. Missed the Metroplex and Waco, Navarro County could go severe warned anytime Kaufman, Van Zandt, (named for the Lynryd Sknyrd singer) warned. Not backbuilt enough to get CLL yet, but has a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 First TOR of the day -- for Craighead, Green, Mississippi, DUnklin, and Pemiscot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 Pretty quiet in here for 3 active tornado warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 Showers forming NW side (just outside Beltway 8) in Houston area, they are struggling but may have a lightning bolt or two. Lone cell just missing CLL looks decent, not warned, but maybe by the time its gets to I-45 near Madisonville. Looks like a trough, winds shifted SW and clearing driving local HOU area showers and lone CLL storm cell, but a narrow sector of high dewpoints even w/ windshift, with the front catching it. CLL is in the narrow sector between the trough/wind shift to SW and actual front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Pretty quiet in here for 3 active tornado warnings TN and MO are in the TN Valley subforum. An undescribed division in Mississippi splits that state between SE US and Tennessee Valley. The Moderate Risk area is, for now, underperforming, which I assume most people who live in it prefer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 Looks pretty messy and linear, thinking things stay pretty tame overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 16 hours ago, Chinook said: radar image from Salado TX today. I haven't done this GRLevel2 stuff for a while-- downloaded a new 21-day free trial, and maybe I'll maximize my 3D slice and high res possibilities 869 NOUS44 KFWD 132054 PNSFWD TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-132200- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 354 PM CDT WED APR 13 2022 ...SALADO TORNADO INFORMATION... SURVEY TEAMS HAVE CONFIRMED A HIGH-END EF-3 WITH MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 165 MPH TRACKED ACROSS SOUTHERN BELL COUNTY AND INTO THE SALADO AREA TUESDAY EVENING (APRIL 12TH). THE TORNADO BEGAN IN WILLIAMSON COUNTY, BUT THE TRACK IN BELL COUNTY IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEARLY 13 MILES LONG WITH A DURATION OF ABOUT 30 MINUTES. STORM SURVEY TEAMS ARE CURRENTLY ENROUTE BACK TO THE OFFICE AND MORE INFORMATION WILL BE RELEASED THIS EVENING WHEN THE TEAMS HAVE RETURNED. SEE THE PREVIOUS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT RELEASED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE OTHER 2 TORNADOES FROM THE APRIL 12TH EVENT. $$ JLDUNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 Preliminary EF-3 in Salado, track length 13.1 miles plus however far it travelled in Williamson County. Fort Hood tornado EF-?, they don't have access, Seaton tornado in Bell County EF-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 16, 2022 Share Posted April 16, 2022 Wedge tornado moving through Hardy, AR. Tornado emergency issued.Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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