April 10th - April 13th(?) Severe Weather, Moderate risk in place for Iowa today

[Iceresistance]

The models have been extremely consistent with severe weather 7-9 days from now (At least April 12th for starters) in the Southern Plains

[Iceresistance]

SPC has a Slight Risk in place for Oklahoma & Texas on April 11th

[Powerball]

Since 1986, 2022 to-date is already well ahead every other year for Tornado Warning count in FWD's CWA.

 

[canderson]

What happened to all the SE crew? Georgia is getting hammered all day and crickets on that forum. 

[Iceresistance]

6 minutes ago, canderson said:

What happened to all the SE crew? Georgia is getting hammered all day and crickets on that forum. 

SouthernWX is really active there right now.

[Iceresistance]

The GFS has no severe weather at all for next week, it could be a terrible run.

 

The GEFS though: 

[canderson]

3 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

SouthernWX is really active there right now.

Boo. It's sad we have sideboards, it's nice when everyone is here together. 

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, canderson said:

Boo. It's sad we have sideboards, it's nice when everyone is here together. 

It's been around longer than AMWX, & it's also a excellent Southern forum, that's why the Southern Subforum here is relatively inactive.

 

One of my weather forums has a sister forum.

[nwohweather]

3 minutes ago, canderson said:

Boo. It's sad we have sideboards, it's nice when everyone is here together. 

Agreed. I think we may just need to merge or something. If the instability can build a bit this afternoon the parameters are certainly there for a strong tornado, they already are in GA

[Powerball]

1 hour ago, nwohweather said:

Agreed. I think we may just need to merge or something. If the instability can build a bit this afternoon the parameters are certainly there for a strong tornado, they already are in GA

Internal politics and personality clashes is the reason why that will never happen.

It's why this forum, which in itself is already a conurbation of several long-defunct forums, has so many subforums for different regions.

[Iceresistance]

Slight Risk now in place for D6 & D7 for the Southern Plains

[Hollie Maea]

Lots of time to change, but Michael Ventrice's experimental model is off the charts for next Wednesday.  Never seen it like that.

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1511687245752844298?s=20&t=zD1Dt6rHpM6QgjSMqcdqtg

[Iceresistance]

2 hours ago, Hollie Maea said:

Lots of time to change, but Michael Ventrice's experimental model is off the charts for next Wednesday.  Never seen it like that.

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1511687245752844298?s=20&t=zD1Dt6rHpM6QgjSMqcdqtg

Already saw it, it's CRAZY!

Keep in mind that it's 8 Days out, things will change

[Radtechwxman]

This forum is sure absolutely dead for 3 outlooked areas next week in tornado alley.....

[Powerball]

16 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

This forum is sure absolutely dead for 3 outlooked areas next week in tornado alley.....

Part of it has been the all the rug pulls (until the most recent 2 events), with the storm mode always trending messy as we get closer in, or extensive cloud cover / capping.

[METALSTORM]

Wait until Sunday. It'll be hopping.

[Iceresistance]

We have 3 chances that this could get big, Wednesday has the highest potential.

There is a trend where the storms have a tendency to slow down & be further west as well, if that's the case here, I may get Tripled. 

[Iceresistance]

April 10th looks to be likely Capped out, & April 14th currently has too much uncertainty.

[Radtechwxman]

I think Tues and Wed have solid potential. Mon may not have enough moisture yet. Definitely worried about trough timing Wed. 

[Iceresistance]

The D5 & D6 Slight Risk has shifted west again, that's kinda worrying.

[Torchageddon]

On 4/6/2022 at 4:58 PM, Iceresistance said:

Already saw it, it's CRAZY!

Keep in mind that it's 8 Days out, things will change

I haven't read on Mike's product yet, but that color table is suppose to match the SPC's outlook? That pink area doesn't represent a high risk type severity for all severe modes does it, if so I'd think something went wrong with the product! Its already changed to something reasonable however the former reminded me of the April 6-8 2006 event where there was this huge expanse of all severe modes that were also sig - an epic squall line further to the east than the Day 8 map. There was little difference between the 45% and 60% tor contours on the 7th. 

[Iceresistance]

32 minutes ago, Torchageddon said:

I haven't read on Mike's product yet, but that color table is suppose to match the SPC's outlook? That pink area doesn't represent a high risk type severity for all severe modes does it, if so I'd think something went wrong with the product! Its already changed to something reasonable however the former reminded me of the April 6-8 2006 event where there was this huge expanse of all severe modes that were also sig - an epic squall line further to the east than the Day 8 map. There was little difference between the 45% and 60% tor contours on the 7th. 

Yes, the Pink area matches the SPC's High Risk area, Ventrice's experimental automated forecast uses the colors for the SPC's Convective Outlook. (Thunderstorms, Marginal, Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, & High (Could not find the Pink))

[Quincy]

3 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Yes, the Pink area matches the SPC's High Risk area, Ventrice's experimental automated forecast uses the colors for the SPC's Convective Outlook. (Thunderstorms, Marginal, Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, & High (Could not find the Pink))

It’s also changed substantially over the past couple of days. I advise extreme caution when looking at severe weather indicies more than 3-4 days out, especially when they’re *probably* based on a deterministic model, rather than ensembles. It’s also kind of silly to show high risk-equivalent graphics for a week out…

A lot can change, but here are my initial thoughts:

Monday looks like limited moisture return, especially with northward extent. I’d imagine the greatest threat remains across East Texas/Louisiana. Remember that we’re early in the season and antecedent dry conditions exist.

Tuesday may have the greatest apparent threat. Dryline could mix slightly farther east than progged, due to ongoing drought conditions. Maybe a more “classic” April event just east of I-35? Parameter space looks volatile, along with deep shear vectors nearly perpendicular to the dryline. Not overhyping yet, but operational models have shown run-to-run signals for at least a couple of days now.

Wednesday diverges in the models, but the threat should shift toward the Mississippi Valley. Wind fields are forecast to become more unidirectional with northward extent, along with less favorable moisture closer to an occluding surface low. Could be yet another threat around AR/LA/MS? Not sold on a farther north threat yet, but it’s still possible. 

[Iceresistance]

25 minutes ago, Quincy said:

It’s also changed substantially over the past couple of days. I advise extreme caution when looking at severe weather indicies more than 3-4 days out, especially when they’re *probably* based on a deterministic model, rather than ensembles. It’s also kind of silly to show high risk-equivalent graphics for a week out…

A lot can change, but here are my initial thoughts:

Monday looks like limited moisture return, especially with northward extent. I’d imagine the greatest threat remains across East Texas/Louisiana. Remember that we’re early in the season and antecedent dry conditions exist.

Tuesday may have the greatest apparent threat. Dryline could mix slightly farther east than progged, due to ongoing drought conditions. Maybe a more “classic” April event just east of I-35? Parameter space looks volatile, along with deep shear vectors nearly perpendicular to the dryline. Not overhyping yet, but operational models have shown run-to-run signals for at least a couple of days now.

Wednesday diverges in the models, but the threat should shift toward the Mississippi Valley. Wind fields are forecast to become more unidirectional with northward extent, along with less favorable moisture closer to an occluding surface low. Could be yet another threat around AR/LA/MS? Not sold on a farther north threat yet, but it’s still possible. 

Wednesday does highly depend on the northward extent of the severe weather threat because some models have a MCV developing into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday.

[yoda]

Large 30 percent added on days 4 and 5

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 090900
   SPC AC 090900

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0400 AM CDT Sat Apr 09 2022

   Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A substantial, multi-day severe thunderstorm event will continue on
   Day 4/Tuesday and Day 5/Wednesday across much of the central CONUS.
   Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes should
   occur.

   ...Day 4/Tuesday: Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Mississippi
   Valley/Midwest...
   Medium-range guidance is coming into somewhat better agreement
   regarding the eastward progression of an upper trough across the
   western/central CONUS on Day 4/Tuesday. A deep surface cyclone is
   forecast to eject eastward across the central Plains through the
   day, reaching the vicinity of the Upper Midwest Tuesday night.
   Low-level moisture will advect rapidly northward ahead of the
   surface low and east of a dryline across parts of the
   southern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley. Rather steep
   mid-level lapse rates are expected to be present over much of the
   warm sector, which should aid in the development of moderate to
   strong instability east of the dryline by Tuesday afternoon.

   As mid-level height falls and related ascent preceding the upper
   trough overspread the southern/central Plains, convection will
   likely initiate along the dryline from eastern KS to central TX.
   Even with deep-layer shear forecast to remain fairly modest through
   the day, the large reservoir of buoyancy will likely support robust
   severe thunderstorms. Large to very large hail should occur with
   initially discrete convection, and damaging winds will be a concern
   as convection grows upscale Tuesday night. Greater tornado potential
   may focus across the central Plains into parts of the Midwest/mid MS
   Valley, where better low-level shear should be present owing to a
   strengthening low-level jet. A 30% severe area has been included
   where confidence is greatest in supercells occurring Tuesday
   afternoon/evening.

   ...Day 5/Wednesday: Southern/Central Plains into the Mississippi
   Valley/Midwest and Southeast...
   Convection still posing some severe threat may be ongoing Wednesday
   morning across parts of the lower MS Valley and Mid-South in a
   strong low-level warm advection regime. As the large-scale upper
   trough ejects eastward over the central CONUS, low-level moisture
   should continue to stream northward across the lower/mid MS Valley
   into parts of the Midwest. There are some differences in model
   guidance regarding the evolution of this upper trough on Day
   5/Wednesday. Still, it appears likely that scattered to numerous
   severe thunderstorms will develop across the broad warm sector and
   to the east of a cold front/dryline through much of the day. Strong
   deep-layer shear should combine with adequate instability to support
   updraft organization.

   All severe hazards appear possible with this convection, and any
   supercells will pose a threat for tornadoes in addition to large
   hail and damaging winds. Even with lingering uncertainty regarding
   the possible effect of early-day convection and some model
   differences in the placement of the upper trough and related surface
   features, enough confidence exists to include a 30% severe area for
   parts of the ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. This
   region appears to have the best chance for substantial
   destabilization Wednesday afternoon and discrete supercells. An
   isolated severe threat will probably persist into Wednesday
   evening/night across parts of the Midwest into the lower OH Valley
   and Southeast. Even though low-level moisture and instability should
   gradually decrease with eastward extent across these regions, both
   low-level and deep-layer shear will likely remain strong. This may
   support a continued severe threat through much of the overnight
   hours.

[KSWx]

NAM showing a nuclear cap for Tuesday over Kansas.

[Powerball]

The SPC has a pretty large hatched 30% risk area for Tuesday, stretching from DFW northward to Des Moines / Omaha.

 

[Iceresistance]

This must be one of the largest Enhanced risks I've ever seen!

[DanLarsen34]

This is worth noting. 

 

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, DanLarsen34 said:

This is worth noting. 

 

You beat me to it by an hour!