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April Medium/Long Range Discussion


stormtracker
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I'm telling ya if we get a 3rd consecutive nina...it might be the longest big snow drought since the 70s. Well, for my yard anyway....Some of you tried to tell me before this winter began that I was jumping the gun...but lo and behold look what happened! Busy NS train of vorts with no space, coastal scraper benefiting CAPE and other beaches...textbook. Exactly the kind of thing I expected going in. Forgive me if I'm not convinced ninas won't behave differently.

But I suppose it's still better than no snow at all...not many ninas are complete shutouts. It's just...ya still want a little more SOMETIME.

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm telling ya if we get a 3rd consecutive nina...it might be the longest big snow drought since the 70s. Well, for my yard anyway....Some of you tried to tell me before this winter began that I was jumping the gun...but lo and behold look what happened! Busy NS train of vorts with no space, coastal scraper benefiting CAPE and other beaches...textbook. Exactly the kind of thing I expected going in.

But I suppose it's still better than no snow at all...I just miss warning events, man. Never got 'em every year, but this may be year #7 of nickel and dime events. Basically like 70-78! Boooo....

Too bad (Nina) cannot be sabotaged like say a sequencer!  LOL
 

 

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4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm telling ya if we get a 3rd consecutive nina...it might be the longest big snow drought since the 70s. Well, for my yard anyway....Some of you tried to tell me before this winter began that I was jumping the gun...but lo and behold look what happened! Busy NS train of vorts with no space, coastal scraper benefiting CAPE and other beaches...textbook. Exactly the kind of thing I expected going in. Forgive me if I'm not convinced ninas won't behave differently.

But I suppose it's still better than no snow at all...not many ninas are complete shutouts. It's just...ya still want a little more SOMETIME.

back away from the edge bud, it's mid-April

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30 minutes ago, CAPE said:

GFS loses if recent history means anything. Spilt the difference between the Euro and CMC. I will side closer to the Euro. 70 seems about right. What a day it will be!

We will have a couple beautiful days before the threat of the back door front either way.  I just don’t get the focus on the not nice days. Everyone is totally entitled to feel how they want. But I really don’t get it. We’ve had so many gorgeous days in the last month. We have a couple more coming in the not so distant future.  But there is so much complaining about the minority cruddy days. Is the expectation that every spring day be sunny and 70?  Besides we really need it to rain a bit now or we will be in big trouble come the dry stretches in summer. 

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I like the nice days but this would be a pretty boring place if everyday was sunny and 70.  I know I’m weird but I loved focusing on the weather today!!!!  It was a great day.  I took off and enjoyed looking out the window, going for a drive, and savoring what will probably be the last snowfall in my backyard for at least 8 months….

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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We will have a couple beautiful days before the threat of the back door front either way.  I just don’t get the focus on the not nice days. Everyone is totally entitled to feel how they want. But I really don’t get it. We’ve had so many gorgeous days in the last month. We have a couple more coming in the not so distant future.  But there is so much complaining about the minority cruddy days. Is the expectation that every spring day be sunny and 70?  Besides we really need it to rain a bit now or we will be in big trouble come the dry stretches in summer. 

To each their own. I expect Spring to be changeable, and I enjoy the cooler days mixed in as they will quickly become few and far between then completely non existent for several months going forward. And yes we need some rain in April and May before we become solely dependent on scattered convection for moisture during most of the summer.

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Not really sure where else to post this question, but has anyone else noticed that we've been getting these late season -NAOs more often? Seems almost like clockwork we get a blocking pattern late March into mid April then we're right into summer.

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17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Not really sure where else to post this question, but has anyone else noticed that we've been getting these late season -NAOs more often? Seems almost like clockwork we get a blocking pattern late March into mid April then we're right into summer.

Yep, it's been a thing for several years. You're not the only one:

TLDR: A bit of reasoned speculation, but probably due to downstream effects of rapid warming in the North Pacific. Looks like a transient decadal response to me.

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2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Not really sure where else to post this question, but has anyone else noticed that we've been getting these late season -NAOs more often? Seems almost like clockwork we get a blocking pattern late March into mid April then we're right into summer.

Yes. I have noticed it. And I am kind of done with it. Give me the blocking during winter not in April please. I know PSU and some others have talked about how we have had a bunch of nice days this so far. But not really out here. It has been cold pretty much wall to wall with the exception of last weekend. Which was gorgeous. It is becoming tiring. 

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7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yes. I have noticed it. And I am kind of done with it. Give me the blocking during winter not in April please. I know PSU and some others have talked about how we have had a bunch of nice days this so far. But not really out here. It has been cold pretty much wall to wall with the exception of last weekend. Which was gorgeous. It is becoming tiring. 

Shhh, you’re just being irrational.  :P

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2 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Yes. I have noticed it. And I am kind of done with it. Give me the blocking during winter not in April please. I know PSU and some others have talked about how we have had a bunch of nice days this so far. But not really out here. It has been cold pretty much wall to wall with the exception of last weekend. Which was gorgeous. It is becoming tiring. 

Nothing we can do about any of it, other than take it in stride and enjoy whatever weather we get. Not like it's been cloudy/rainy and miserable for days on end where you can't enjoy the outdoors at all. Put a jacket on and go for a hike. Refreshing. At least you can walk more than 10 feet without sweating profusely, and no flies and mosquitoes biting at you, although that will  all become the norm soon enough and last for months. I will adapt to it and still do my thing outdoors, although I find it to be less comfortable.

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On 4/19/2022 at 2:35 PM, csnavywx said:

Yep, it's been a thing for several years. You're not the only one:

TLDR: A bit of reasoned speculation, but probably due to downstream effects of rapid warming in the North Pacific. Looks like a transient decadal response to me.

This is just a hypothesis of mine and I have no evidence whatsoever to back this up but... this recent trend of a colder pattern for the northern US and Canada come springtime. There are studies showing that the stratosphere is becoming colder (and stronger?) on average during the winter as the troposphere warms. Ex: This past February saw the coldest 50mb temps on record in the stratosphere over the high latitudes. I wonder whether the colder SPV during the winter allows it to survive longer (on average) towards spring without a significant disruption until the sun angle increases forcing it to weaken anyway. When it finally does weaken it may affect the troposphere and lead to more high-latitude blocking depending on how dramatic the disruption and/or SPV split is. 

Of course, the SPV and TPV are not always connected as seen earlier this winter and many other times in the past. Also, one could argue that there isn't enough data yet to know for sure how climate change is affecting the SPV/TPV. Like I said... just a hypothesis of mine. I have no concrete evidence to back it up.  

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On 4/18/2022 at 8:53 PM, psuhoffman said:

We will have a couple beautiful days before the threat of the back door front either way.  I just don’t get the focus on the not nice days. Everyone is totally entitled to feel how they want. But I really don’t get it. We’ve had so many gorgeous days in the last month. We have a couple more coming in the not so distant future.  But there is so much complaining about the minority cruddy days. Is the expectation that every spring day be sunny and 70?  Besides we really need it to rain a bit now or we will be in big trouble come the dry stretches in summer. 

Because not-nice days in April suck.

I guess I don't get why you don't get it.

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27 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Because not-nice days in April suck.

I guess I don't get why you don't get it.

He gets it. He just doesn't get why you focus on those days. :lol:

We get sucky days in every month to be fair, and what defines a 'not nice' day is subjective.

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