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April 2022


bluewave
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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The general rule is we get more active Atlantic hurricane seasons with a La Niña and warm Atlantic SSTs. A -IOD serves to enhance the La Niña background state with stronger trade winds. The last strong summer -IOD was in 2016 and helped to shift the super El Niño to a 2 year La Niña.
 

Causes and Predictability of the Negative Indian Ocean Dipole and Its Impact on La Niña During 2016

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-12674-z

 

Extremely doubtful that there ever would have been a Niña in 2016 had it not been for that very strong -IOD event

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17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Extremely doubtful that there ever would have been a Niña in 2016 had it not been for that very strong -IOD event

Yeah, the record warm pool north of Australia continues to be a big story.

 

 

 

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Today was partly sunny but unseasonably cool. A cold night lies ahead. New York City will likely see the mercury fall toward or even into the upper 30s. Outside Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City, widespread readings in the lower and middle 30s are likely.

The cooler than normal weather will likely persist through the middle of the first week of May on account of the ongoing blocking.

During the 1991-2020 period, the April 25-May 5 period saw temperatures average 1°-2° below normal when strong blocking coincided with Niña conditions. Afterward, approximately 50% of such cases went on to see a warmer to much warmer than normal second half of May.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around April 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +31.44 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.909 today.

On April 25 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.423 (RMM). The April 24-adjusted amplitude was 0.373 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.6° (1.1° below normal).

 

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly sunny to mostly sunny and cool. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 58°

Newark: 59°

Philadelphia: 59°

Below normal temperatures will persist through the middle of the first week of May.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 66.6°; 15-Year: 67.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 67.5°; 15-Year: 68.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 69.4°; 15-Year: 69.8°

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The last 3 days of April are averaging 50degs.(40/60) or -7.

Month to date is  52.8[-0.3].      April should end at  52.5[-1.2].

Reached 58 here yesterday (at midnight)-was 50 by 6pm.

Today: 57-60, wind nw and breezy, m. clear, 41 by tomorrow AM.

40*(51%RH) here at 7am.      42* at 9am.       48* at Noon.      53* at 2pm.      56* at 4pm.

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The low temperatures this morning came in warmer than models forecast. So the cooler high temperatures  this month have kept the departures down. Several of our stations will finish near the top for warmest April lowest temperatures. One of the few times that cool spots like HPN didn’t drop below freezing in April. 
 


 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Apr
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2010 36 0
2 2017 33 0
- 1983 33 1
- 1953 33 0
3 2022 32 5
- 2006 32 0
- 2005 32 0
- 1999 32 6
- 1998 32 5
- 1988 32 1
- 1986 32 0
- 1960 32 1


 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Apr
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1878 42 0
2 2010 40 0
3 2022 38 3
- 2012 38 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Apr
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2012 38 0
- 2010 38 0
2 2011 37 0
- 1998 37 0
3 2022 36 3
- 2017 36 0
- 1994 36 0


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Apr
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2017 34 0
- 2010 34 0
- 1988 34 0
2 2022 33 3
- 1999 33 0
- 1983 33 0
3 2012 32 0
- 2011 32 0
- 1993 32 0
- 1991 32 0
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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The low temperatures this morning came in warmer than models forecast. So the cooler high temperatures  this month have kept the departures down. Several of our stations will finish near the top for warmest April lowest temperatures. One of the few times that cool spots like HPN didn’t drop below freezing in April. 

So again, it's the high lows that make us warmer. At least this time the highs were low enough to temper it and give us an overall lower average temp.

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2 hours ago, gravitylover said:

So again, it's the high lows that make us warmer. At least this time the highs were low enough to temper it and give us an overall lower average temp.

Yeah, this month we had slightly cooler than average highs and warmer lows. 
 

2E3781E3-B8B4-4843-9F03-5ED977E31AA8.thumb.png.396003975f2c0d4a3b0602a9674bc9b9.png

E2DC1996-39AA-46E1-9BDA-17BE7019D7FA.thumb.png.12e1bcdb06309792a404b1650d8b8fce.png

 

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Yeah, the real warmth on that day was mostly limited to west of the Hudson due to the strong onshore flow influence. 
 

Monthly Data for April 2022 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Highest Max Temperature 
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 88
NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 88
NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 88
NJ HARRISON COOP 87
NY SHRUB OAK COOP 85
NY PORT JERVIS COOP 84
NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 83
NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 83
CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 81
NY CARMEL 4N COOP 80
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 79
NY CENTERPORT COOP 77
NY SYOSSET COOP 77
NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 77
CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 77
CT OXFORD WATERBURY WBAN 76
NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 75
CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 74
NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 74
CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 74
NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 73
NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 73
NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 72
CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 72
NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 72
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 71
CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 71
NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 71
CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN 70
NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 69
NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 65
NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 65
NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP


 

 

 

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6 hours ago, bluewave said:

The low temperatures this morning came in warmer than models forecast. So the cooler high temperatures  this month have kept the departures down. Several of our stations will finish near the top for warmest April lowest temperatures. One of the few times that cool spots like HPN didn’t drop below freezing in April. 
 


 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Apr
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2010 36 0
2 2017 33 0
- 1983 33 1
- 1953 33 0
3 2022 32 5
- 2006 32 0
- 2005 32 0
- 1999 32 6
- 1998 32 5
- 1988 32 1
- 1986 32 0
- 1960 32 1


 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Apr
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1878 42 0
2 2010 40 0
3 2022 38 3
- 2012 38 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Apr
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2012 38 0
- 2010 38 0
2 2011 37 0
- 1998 37 0
3 2022 36 3
- 2017 36 0
- 1994 36 0


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Apr
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2017 34 0
- 2010 34 0
- 1988 34 0
2 2022 33 3
- 1999 33 0
- 1983 33 0
3 2012 32 0
- 2011 32 0
- 1993 32 0
- 1991 32 0

I bet this April had the warmest low of any Aprils this cool…

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27 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I bet this April had the warmest low of any Aprils this cool…

Yeah, a monthly minimum this warm generally had much higher monthly average temperatures. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Apr
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Average  Temperature
1 2012 38 55.2
- 2010 38 57.9
2 2011 37 55.5
- 1998 37 53.9
3 2022 36 53.4
- 2017 36 57.2
- 1994 36 57.4
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Another cold night lies ahead. The cooler than normal weather will likely persist through the middle of the first week of May on account of the ongoing blocking. Then, there could be a short-lived rebound in temperatures before cooler air returns.

During the 1991-2020 period, the April 25-May 5 period saw temperatures average 1°-2° below normal when strong blocking coincided with Niña conditions. Afterward, approximately 50% of such cases went on to see a warmer to much warmer than normal second half of May.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around April 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +30.35 today. That was the second consecutive day on which the SOI was +30.00 or above. The last time that happened was December 25-26, 2021. The last time that happened in April was April 8-9, 2011.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.901 today.

On April 26 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.537 (RMM). The April 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.423 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.7° (1.0° below normal).

 

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly sunny to mostly sunny and a bit milder. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 63°

Newark: 64°

Philadelphia: 64°

Below normal temperatures will persist through the middle of the first week of May.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 66.9°; 15-Year: 67.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 67.8°; 15-Year: 68.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 69.7°; 15-Year: 70.1°

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The last two days of April are averaging 53degs.(42/63) or -4 

Month to date is  52.7[-0.6].       April will end at  52.7[-1.0].

Reached 58 here yesterday.

Today: 61-65, wind nw., breezy till late PM, m. clear, 46 by tomorrow AM.

Wettish week incoming starting Tuesday.

42*(37%RH) here at 7am.    45*(31%RH) at 9am.        53*(27%RH) at Noon.       59*(25%RH) at 3pm.      61*(24%RH) at 4pm.      Reached  65*(23%RH) at 6:30pm.          57* at 9pm.

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