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April 2022


bluewave
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On 4/13/2022 at 7:59 AM, bluewave said:

Looks like it’s related to the record SSTs north of Australia and around Indonesia. So a continuation of this persistent La Niña background state. Unprecedented rainfall in Australia during recent months producing the extreme flash flooding. Models are forecasting a big drop in the IOD this summer. This would enhance the La Niña and contribute to an active hurricane season for the Atlantic. It also means that we could be on track for a rare 3rd year La Niña for next winter.  
 

 

 

 

and Australia had record wildfires and an extreme drought just a few years ago

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4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That seems unusually high. I don't see any other location hitting that. 

It's reasonable, I expect Staten Island to be similar to Newark, where it hit 88. 

I don't understand how Central Park only hit 79 when 80 was reached even on Long Island.  There isn't even any foliage there right now.

 

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8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some snowfall amounts from North Dakota:

GLENBURN    ND    30.5
3 NNW MINOT    ND    30.0
NORWICH    ND    28.0
3 ENE VELVA    ND    28.0
LANSFORD    ND    27.5
4 W RED LODGE    MT    27.0
1 NW HEBRON    ND    26.5
1 W DUNN CENTER    ND    26.0
BURLINGTON    ND    26.0
UNDERWOOD    ND    24.3
3 S NYE    MT    24.0
GLENBURN    ND    24.0
10 NE RICHARDTON    ND    24.0
10 NE SENTINEL BUTTE    ND    24.0
LANSFORD    ND    24.0
CARPIO    ND    24.0

 

36" now just N of Minot. image.thumb.png.6ac38ace28afcca634faa86c1e2d45cb.png

 

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Under partly sunny skies, temperatures soared into the upper 70s and lower 80s away from the coastline. Newark reached 88°, which tied the daily record set in 1941. Thunderstorms moved through the region during the late afternoon and early evening as a front came eastward.

Following the frontal passage, tomorrow and Saturday will remain on the warm side of normal. However, a strong cold front will slice across the region on Saturday bringing showers and perhaps gusty thunderstorms. Noticeably cooler air will then pour into the region and persist through at least the middle of next week. The duration and magnitude of the upcoming cool spell could determine whether April finishes with a cool or warm anomaly.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around April 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of May.

The SOI was +21.63 today. Today was the 10th consecutive day that the SOI was +20.00 or above. The last time that happened was January 8-17, 2011 when the SOI reached +20.00 or above on 10 consecutive days. This is only the 7th time on record that the SOI has been at or above +20.00 for at least 10 consecutive days. Daily figures go back to 1991.

The last time a streak of 7 or more such days occurred in April was March 28-April 5, 2011 when the SOI reached at least +20.00 on 9 consecutive days. Then, there was a brief period of much warmer than normal temperatures following the end of that stretch and a longer period of much warmer than normal temperatures starting about 2 1/2 weeks later.  

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.459 today.

On April 12 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.750 (RMM). The April 11-adjusted amplitude was 0.712 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 45% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.5° (0.2° below normal).

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 54degs.(48/60) or about Normal.

Only reached 73 here yesterday.     Newark was 88, CPK 79, JFK 70.

Today: 66-70, wind nw., m. sunny till late PM, 54 by tomorrow AM.

Next T outburst near 4/25-27.

54*(48%RH) here at 7am.      60* at 11am.      62* at Noon.     60* at 12:30pm.      63* at 1:30pm.

58* at 4pm.       56* at 7pm.

How the T's looked near the peak yesterday.       Don't Worry Coastal Areas---we will be the envy of all in J/A.   lol............

1649962800-yNWxApZsPzY.png

 

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Continuation of the big weather swings pattern coming up. Areas that were in the 80s last few days will have another freeze by Monday morning. This is followed by a storm system that could have higher elevation wet snows and heavy rains near the coast. This coming week looks to feature the strongest -AO blocking pattern of the year so far. Late April will be a battle between the -AO block and the SE Ridge trying to flex. This will probably mean more back and forth with some cooler back door days and warmer days if the warm front can push to our north. 


AF40FE44-7699-42D3-8DDA-D012FC4B7B47.thumb.png.f8a1e9cd8bd7a5f2d09bc57ef298ce55.png

C5709BBE-7942-418B-B0F9-22DCDCB94912.thumb.png.5d4f7dba476f4d593d0240b688a2d60b.png

8C329436-D2CB-47BA-AF58-7DAE0DA73170.thumb.png.b8dc3a864a591da8db804e69fc3b3cab.png

B815462E-DC3B-43EB-BAD3-E02DBA3FA502.thumb.png.614a05d3dea5966fce2033c0e86cb270.png

 

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly to mostly sunny and warm today. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 67°

Newark: 69°

Philadelphia: 70°

The unseasonable warmth will continue into the start of the weekend.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 61.8°; 15-Year: 62.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 62.5°; 15-Year: 62.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 64.7°; 15-Year: 65.1°

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