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April Pattern/obs thread.


weathafella
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I think it maybe has something to do with the run cycle, 00z vs 12z

Not sure whether this has been hugely consistent but I have come to roll eyes prior to looking at the 12z … It seems to attempt theses seasonal rollbacks, then oscillate back at 00z. 

Not sure why that is but was musing something to do with being on the pattern fence, during transition season no less, then processing the diabatic/diurnal heat budget. Heh … as though the 12z run has no radiative forcing.  

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It's so difficult to put so much stock into medium/long-range guidance this time of year, especially when the flow is very chaotic. Looks like over the upcoming weeks we'll see very similar weather to that of April. There are some opportunities for some very mild-to-warm days upcoming but crummy days may be just as equal. Don't like the omega block look though that seems to be popping up. Need to get rid of the favorable pattern allowing for cut-off/closed off lows off the coast of Maine dragging down heights. 

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27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think it maybe has something to do with the run cycle, 00z vs 12z

Not sure whether this has been hugely consistent but I have come to roll eyes prior to looking at the 12z … It seems to attempt theses seasonal rollbacks, then oscillate back at 00z. 

Not sure why that is but was musing something to do with being on the pattern fence, during transition season no less, then processing the diabatic/diurnal heat budget. Heh … as though the 12z run has no radiative forcing.  

How’s EPS? Same or different? 

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51 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How’s EPS? Same or different? 

Through about D7 ... as is typically the case with that cluster, the op and ens means are nondispersive.  Heh, meaning they don't look a whole helluva lot different - the op is just more amplified at local scales.  

Differences get more notable by D8, though.  The euro has a stem wound mid level "invention" approaching the Lakes which you can tell it its model enhanced bs. That same feature acquired all that momentum from no source when the leading sequenced D5 into 6 -->  ...Something I've noticed about the Euro for many years actually - the 'auto bomb' effect.  Any days beyond D6 are amplitude suspect with ridges and troughs.  There may be a whirl there but not that eye- popping. Anyway, the eps mean barely acknowledges that even exist so the op and mean diverge hugely on that, ...which unfortunately f's up the rest of the run.

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m in Portland on biz. Rooftop bar at hotel . Cheers while you Inhale cannibus and blacken lungs bro @RUNNAWAYICEBERG

https://i.imgur.com/Z4AKNsE.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/DZwxIEY.jpg

As he sits on a bench of a warm indoor bar which proceeds a quick pic of a roped off and closed rooftop. 

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15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nope. A pinch of a gummy and a vodka seltzer like a High Noon. 

I used to vape on occasion years ago but once it was easier to hop over the border to MA and get edibles and the like, I tossed the vape.

Can’t wait until we go live in CT. So great for the communities, businesses, and the state. Everyone wins.

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

On this forum last week. From Mets and weenies. They had wheel o rrhea and were thinking rainy ULL overhead. Thankfully they wrong . They won’t fess up so it needs to be called 

Your boy:

Eric Fisher

@ericfishe

 

2

Not our finest weather to end the month of April. A good amount of clouds, cool temperatures, and busy breezes to end the week. Highs in the low 50s Thursday & Friday. Improvement will move in over the course of the weekend and it's looking like a great #MayDay on Sunday! #wbzh·r#wbz

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44 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Your boy:

Eric Fisher

@ericfishe

 

2

Not our finest weather to end the month of April. A good amount of clouds, cool temperatures, and busy breezes to end the week. Highs in the low 50s Thursday & Friday. Improvement will move in over the course of the weekend and it's looking like a great #MayDay on Sunday! #wbzh·r#wbz

As far as I see it this has been about as typical of a spring as you could expect here. We’ve had a mix of just about everything. 

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