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April Pattern/obs thread.


weathafella
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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Despite all the gloom and doom and hang wringing over fake modelology that will never happen over the next couple weeks.. it’s deep spring out there. Everything is blooming and growing . Leaf out beginning on some species and will accelerate with the warm sunny days thru Sunday. 

 

How do your oaks look?

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1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Into late april if we gonna door we hope it goes all the way to ACY. The worst is for the Mid Atlantic with the onshore flow. We can 60 with a Canadian airmass. That's my hope/expectation come Sunday and into early May, generally. Otherwise close the blinds.

I'm not sure that is a BD front after discretely nerding out over charts.

It looks like a warm front from the OV slams to a halt near ALB and just doesn't come any farther E before the ridge collapses and the air mass rolls underneath.   

It may actually BD farther S down the EC - hah...  you know it's bad when we're creating BD air mass in our back yards instead of arrival.

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I'm not very personally confident the Euro's 12z solution will even be there.  

I realize I spent time opining ( ..or 'whining' either way heh ) about the -NAO retrograding earlier.   If the retrograde doesn't happen as quickly as as the previous runs ...that cut-off rhea wheel might end up farther out to sea like the predecessor just did.  Note, the feature closing off S of NS D5-7 has gone from nearly right over us, to 1/3 the way across the Atlantic as a three day correction.  

By the time the D8-10 one is closing off... it may end up corrected E too.  

Plus, the Euro's alone - there's that... I mean that not that anyone said otherwise.   But yeah, as is?  oh my god

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10 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Same here.  Everything seems about a week or so behind. Forsythia just started busting out a few days ago.  Magnolias just starting. 

"Seems"  ... the fabled portrait of the American clay - haha.

It would be nice to know what is and isn't actually ahead.    Maybe there is a species-specific delay. But the phenotype analysis actually has a premature greening in the general smear fwiw -

 

image.png.7a71420622083e7f5da874510de20237.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

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21 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He’s not getting 60s from tue night onward with that offshore low. He’ll be lucky to tickle 50 here and there.

 

21 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We’ll take Hammerhan over this forecast 

 

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s ok out. Could be warmer. 
 

Euro next week. :yikes:

 

2 hours ago, CT Rain said:

What a nightmare that is. 

 

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Driving south to ALB then to Long Island today a couple observations…

Very surprising how the Champlain Valley still had snowbanks and some snow a day later… that was a healthy little snow for like the third week of April even to Lake elevation.

Went across the southeastern Adirondacks (Schroon Lake) area to I-87…. wild to see the snowbanks and they had to have seen 7-10” of absolute paste.  Tons of tree damage along I-87 with trees freshly cut right in the breakdown lanes.  It must’ve been a mess yesterday morning as there was a tree trunk cut every 1/4 mile at some points that would’ve been laying across at least one lane of the interstate.

Evidence of snow through plow piles all the way down through Albany area at my parents house.  Heard they got 2-3” down here, which is real impressive in the banana valley here for this time of year.

Some buds and flowers out, looks like a few trees got smoked by the snow though, flowering on the ground.  Certainly much greener than up north, starting to look like spring.

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Just never ending winter in the Dakotas Eastern Montana These places just had 18 to 36 with monumental drifts.  Another blizzard this weekend. With 12 to 30 inches.

Saturday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly after 11am. High near 34. Windy, with a north wind 24 to 32 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Saturday Night
Snow likely, mainly before 1am. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Windy, with a north wind 29 to 32 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday
Patchy blowing snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 34. Windy, with a north wind 24 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph.
Sunday Night
Patchy blowing snow before 9pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 13. Blustery, with a north wind 17 to 22 mph decreasing to 11 to 16 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph.
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1 hour ago, Spanks45 said:

27.7⁰, hopefully that is the last of the really cold mornings....had to cover the peaches and pears as well as the asparagus. 

Yea. It’s been a chilly spring so far with Some nice days mixed in but it would be good to get into a sustained warm pattern. Unfortunately the latter half of next week looks like dung again. 

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