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April Pattern/obs thread.


weathafella
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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

38 here. Poured last night so we take the green up help. Wonder if I can sniff 32 tonight. @dendrite I wasn’t kidding when I said I may be done with 32F temps a couple of weeks ago. 

Poured here too in Westfield. Green up in FULL swing here. I haven't even treated the lawn yet.. and it needs to be cut in the next couple days..

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the issues with Tuesday's system ...likely failing the blue bomb deal, are bigger than just cold air.

The N-stream is actually bullying in and only partially capturing... That's bad, because that behavior forces the westerly track,...but also does not really phase in enough to deepen it enough to where the whole structure can 'carve' SE a bit ...which would then go back to a more east track with a deeper total result.   A latter scenario might actually do a dynamic flip deal..  

But this is perfectly not right, as is..  

The fact that the antecedent air mass is marginal - only - then does the rest.  Because if there were more BL resistance/cold in place, that can force a deeper system and more d(t)/ p-type compression.  

It could be 'blamed' on a season tenor but I don't see this really "like" much that happened earlier this last winter. This is got broader systemically failing matrices involved.

The models are not doing anyone any favors by painting any blue colors anywhere, because it's ginning up the hopes and maybe dreams that really probably don't have much hope of materializing.

Unless the models are wrong about these limitations, and there's a cold destiny still lurking ?  that's just having a gambler's addiction waiting on that probability to parlay.   This is likely a typical climo April chilly rain coastal ...whether it ends up the Hudson or comes over Boston...it probably won't make a lot of difference anywhere < 1200' elevation, and restricted W-N

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39.1  Moderate graupel shower.  Actually enough to coast the ground white a bit

Last evenings rain mixed with snow for a couple of hours.  Hills are white above 1900 feet

Don't like the west trend for the potential blue bomb.  First guess is a quick dump on the front end followed by a flip.

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