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local climate change impacts


forkyfork
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It may be just me, but I find that stunning.

Calibrating a thermometer is not rocket science.  For an official instrument to be several degrees in error is just gross.

The response, that the NWS is investigating the situation is not helpful.  The errors simply perpetuate unless real action is taken. In a busy organization with lots of immediate responsibilities, it is understandable that no line person has time to troubleshoot the issue and fix it.

So the buck stops with the NWS branch which has responsibility for the selection, placement and maintenance of the instrumentation. Is there such a branch or is this a local responsibility? 

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I never liked electronic observations...sometimes the temperature is off a bit compared with my back up mercury thermometer...I don't like tipping bucket rain gages...The one I had was 10% less than my 4" plastic one...now its electronic and you get unknown precipitation at times...snow measurements by armatures are off too...

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Even this NYT story from July 1977 highlights that Central Park was warmer than LGA before the tree growth. Central Park actually had the highest temperature readings during the famous July 1977 heatwave. This isn’t possible anymore with the dense vegetation around the thermometer. 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/1977/07/22/archives/vandals-in-central-park-forcing-weather-service-to-seek-new-site.html


When the devices at the castle are not functioning, the Weather Service substitutes readings from La Guardia Airport. But Mr. Gibson said those readings do not really reflect conditions in the city, because they may be several degrees cooler in summer or warmer in winter than those in Central Park.

 

Much different than this more recent article in 2013.

https://pix11.com/news/baked-apple-new-yorkers-sweating-through-worst-heatwave-of-the-summer/

 

“[The Central Park Conservancy is] almost making it like a shaded, tropical rainforest, so to speak,” said Schlacter about the weather station’s location, which is surrounded by lush, green trees, bushes and weeds that grew even thicker in the near-record rains of this past spring.  “It’s keeping temperatures cooler than some of the true urban areas,” Schlacter said.

A more accurate reading, according to Schlacter, “We actually like Newark Airport to represent what everybody feels in the five boroughs [and beyond].”


 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature 
1977-07-13 93 73
1977-07-14 92 73
1977-07-15 96 72
1977-07-16 98 75
1977-07-17 97 78
1977-07-18 100 78
1977-07-19 102 78
1977-07-20 92 75
1977-07-21 104 78


 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature 
1977-07-13 92 73
1977-07-14 91 73
1977-07-15 93 71
1977-07-16 97 72
1977-07-17 99 77
1977-07-18 98 75
1977-07-19 100 78
1977-07-20 90 75
1977-07-21 102 78


 

Data for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature 
1977-07-13 92 72
1977-07-14 89 72
1977-07-15 90 69
1977-07-16 96 72
1977-07-17 95 74
1977-07-18 95 76
1977-07-19 99 75
1977-07-20 90 74
1977-07-21 99 78
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average yearly max for Newark and Central Park...

..................Newark...............Central Park..............difference.....

years..........ave max..............ave max...............+-

1933-39.......98.7......................99.4...................+0.7

1940-49.......99.9......................98.5...................-1.4

1950-59......100.1.......................98.1....................-2.0

1960-69........98.0......................97.3....................-0.7

1970-79.........97.1.......................96.5....................-0.6

1980-89........99.0......................97.6.....................-1.4

1990-99.......101.0......................97.9.....................-3.1

2000-09........98.7......................95.5....................-3.2

2010-19........100.5.....................97.5.....................-3.0

2020-21.........99.5.....................97.0.....................-2.5

 

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11 hours ago, bluewave said:

Even this NYT story from July 1977 highlights that Central Park was warmer than LGA before the tree growth. Central Park actually had the highest temperature readings during the famous July 1977 heatwave. This isn’t possible anymore with the dense vegetation around the thermometer. 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/1977/07/22/archives/vandals-in-central-park-forcing-weather-service-to-seek-new-site.html


When the devices at the castle are not functioning, the Weather Service substitutes readings from La Guardia Airport. But Mr. Gibson said those readings do not really reflect conditions in the city, because they may be several degrees cooler in summer or warmer in winter than those in Central Park.

 

Much different than this more recent article in 2013.

https://pix11.com/news/baked-apple-new-yorkers-sweating-through-worst-heatwave-of-the-summer/

 

“[The Central Park Conservancy is] almost making it like a shaded, tropical rainforest, so to speak,” said Schlacter about the weather station’s location, which is surrounded by lush, green trees, bushes and weeds that grew even thicker in the near-record rains of this past spring.  “It’s keeping temperatures cooler than some of the true urban areas,” Schlacter said.

A more accurate reading, according to Schlacter, “We actually like Newark Airport to represent what everybody feels in the five boroughs [and beyond].”


 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature 
1977-07-13 93 73
1977-07-14 92 73
1977-07-15 96 72
1977-07-16 98 75
1977-07-17 97 78
1977-07-18 100 78
1977-07-19 102 78
1977-07-20 92 75
1977-07-21 104 78


 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature 
1977-07-13 92 73
1977-07-14 91 73
1977-07-15 93 71
1977-07-16 97 72
1977-07-17 99 77
1977-07-18 98 75
1977-07-19 100 78
1977-07-20 90 75
1977-07-21 102 78


 

Data for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature 
1977-07-13 92 72
1977-07-14 89 72
1977-07-15 90 69
1977-07-16 96 72
1977-07-17 95 74
1977-07-18 95 76
1977-07-19 99 75
1977-07-20 90 74
1977-07-21 99 78

LGA area has also gotten much hotter and much more built up.  They always bake early in the morning too-- I never trust temperatures from that part of the city.  Best approach is to use an average of all area sites EWR,JFK,NYC,LGA

 

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2 hours ago, uncle W said:

average yearly max for Newark and Central Park...

..................Newark...............Central Park..............difference.....

years..........ave max..............ave max...............+-

1933-39.......98.7......................99.4...................+0.7

1940-49.......99.9......................98.5...................-1.4

1950-59......100.1.......................98.1....................-2.0

1960-69........98.0......................97.3....................-0.7

1970-79.........97.1.......................96.5....................-0.6

1980-89........99.0......................97.6.....................-1.4

1990-99.......101.0......................97.9.....................-3.1

2000-09........98.7......................95.5....................-3.2

2010-19........100.5.....................97.5.....................-3.0

2020-21.........99.5.....................97.0.....................-2.5

 

as I thought the 90s were in a league of their own

 

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11 hours ago, bluewave said:

Even this NYT story from July 1977 highlights that Central Park was warmer than LGA before the tree growth. Central Park actually had the highest temperature readings during the famous July 1977 heatwave. This isn’t possible anymore with the dense vegetation around the thermometer. 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/1977/07/22/archives/vandals-in-central-park-forcing-weather-service-to-seek-new-site.html


When the devices at the castle are not functioning, the Weather Service substitutes readings from La Guardia Airport. But Mr. Gibson said those readings do not really reflect conditions in the city, because they may be several degrees cooler in summer or warmer in winter than those in Central Park.

 

Much different than this more recent article in 2013.

https://pix11.com/news/baked-apple-new-yorkers-sweating-through-worst-heatwave-of-the-summer/

 

“[The Central Park Conservancy is] almost making it like a shaded, tropical rainforest, so to speak,” said Schlacter about the weather station’s location, which is surrounded by lush, green trees, bushes and weeds that grew even thicker in the near-record rains of this past spring.  “It’s keeping temperatures cooler than some of the true urban areas,” Schlacter said.

A more accurate reading, according to Schlacter, “We actually like Newark Airport to represent what everybody feels in the five boroughs [and beyond].”


 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature 
1977-07-13 93 73
1977-07-14 92 73
1977-07-15 96 72
1977-07-16 98 75
1977-07-17 97 78
1977-07-18 100 78
1977-07-19 102 78
1977-07-20 92 75
1977-07-21 104 78


 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature 
1977-07-13 92 73
1977-07-14 91 73
1977-07-15 93 71
1977-07-16 97 72
1977-07-17 99 77
1977-07-18 98 75
1977-07-19 100 78
1977-07-20 90 75
1977-07-21 102 78


 

Data for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature 
1977-07-13 92 72
1977-07-14 89 72
1977-07-15 90 69
1977-07-16 96 72
1977-07-17 95 74
1977-07-18 95 76
1977-07-19 99 75
1977-07-20 90 74
1977-07-21 99 78

Didn't JFK also exceed 100 during the 1977 heatwave?  102 or 103?

 

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7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

LGA area has also gotten much hotter and much more built up.  They always bake early in the morning too-- I never trust temperatures from that part of the city.  Best approach is to use an average of all area sites EWR,JFK,NYC,LGA

 

The whole area has gotten much hotter. But the tree growth at NYC is masking the summer daytime warming. If anything, the LGA ASOS is too close to the water. So it’s subject to cooler breezes at times. 
 

Last summer the warmest part of NYC was in Central Queens just south of LGA. The 6-30-21 high at LGA was 100° and 102° at Corona. So that section of Queens was comparable to the area around Newark.The new micronet snapshot from early afternoon illustrated what was happening. There was a local convergence zone just north of the sea breeze front. The warmth probably was enhanced by some local downsloping off the higher moraine. 
 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The whole area has gotten much hotter. But the tree growth at NYC is masking the summer daytime warming. If anything, the LGA ASOS is too close to the water. So it’s subject to cooler breezes at times. 
 

Last summer the warmest part of NYC was in Central Queens just south of LGA. The 6-30-21 high at LGA was 100° and 102° at Corona. So that section of Queens was comparable to the area around Newark.The new micronet snapshot from early afternoon illustrated what was happening. There was a local convergence zone just north of the sea breeze front. The warmth probably was enhanced by some local downsloping off the higher moraine. 
 

 

 

I believe it. I lived in Astoria from 11-15.

In the summer I never lived any place hotter or more miserable in terms of humidity than Astoria.

It was a stagnant fetid air that didn’t move at all. The night time was the worst.

 

 

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8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Didn't JFK also exceed 100 during the 1977 heatwave?  102 or 103?

 

JFK only made it to 95° during the 1977 heatwave. We had strong sea breezes with that event along the South Shore. The SSTs were much cooler in the 1970s especially after the record breaking cold 76-77 winter.

 

Data for January 1, 1977 through December 31, 1977
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Highest Max Temperature 
NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 104
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 104
NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 103
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 102
CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 102
NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 101
NY WEST POINT COOP 101
NY VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 101
NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 100
NJ CRANFORD COOP 100
NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 100
NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 100
NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 100
NY MARYKNOLL COOP 100
NY SCARSDALE COOP 100
CT NEW HAVEN COOP 100
CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 100
CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 100
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 99
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 99
NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 99
NY SUFFERN COOP 99
CT DANBURY COOP 99
NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 99
NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 99
CT GROTON COOP 99
NY CARMEL COOP 98
CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 98
NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 98
NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 97
NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 97
NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 97
CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 97
CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 97
NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 97
NY MINEOLA COOP 97
NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 96
NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 96
NY PORT JERVIS COOP 95
NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 95
NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 95
NY GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP 94
CT PUTNAM LAKE COOP 94
CT WESTBROOK COOP 93
NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 93
NY MONTAUK COOP 93
CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 93
NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 91
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On 5/11/2022 at 2:46 PM, bluewave said:

Yeah, matches all the record high dewpoints and flash flood events in recent years.

 

 

Rather get the high temperature records, higher dew points aren't all that exciting and they make the sky really dirty.

 

Water Vapor being such a powerful greenhouse gas-- is there any way to remove the excess from the atmosphere with some kind of giant dehumidifying machine?

 

 

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25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Rather get the high temperature records, higher dew points aren't all that exciting and they make the sky really dirty.

 

Water Vapor being such a powerful greenhouse gas-- is there any way to remove the excess from the atmosphere with some kind of giant dehumidifying machine?

 

 

High temperature records are increasing quickly also. Just look at how many daily high temperature records have been set since 2010. JFK is the only station lagging a bit in the summer due to the stronger onshore flow since the super El Niño. But it has been making it up with all the new dew point records. 

https://threadex.rcc-acis.org

 

 

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

High temperature records are increasing quickly also. Just look at how many daily high temperature records have been set since 2010. JFK is the only station lagging a bit in the summer due to the stronger onshore flow since the super El Niño. But it has been making it up with all the new dew point records. 

https://threadex.rcc-acis.org

 

 

Something I'm really interested in is when the atmosphere snaps back.  You can only go so far before the planet's self-regulatory processes tilt things in the other direction.  I've noticed that drought is spreading across large parts of the world, including Africa, Asia, the western part of our own continent, etc.  I fully expect that eventually we'll also get into the drought that large parts of the planet are experiencing right now.  I think that will make the temperatures spike much higher than they are right now.  I think you've noticed the drier springs the last couple of years too, I believe within a few years that will extend to summer too.  Hopefully we'll get into more of a mid 1960s type pattern with much drier years.

Higher dew points tend to place a cap on how temperatures can get, but  I think we'll break through the cap once we get into the kind of drought being experienced by large regions of the globe.

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Something I'm really interested in is when the atmosphere snaps back.  You can only go so far before the planet's self-regulatory processes tilt things in the other direction.  I've noticed that drought is spreading across large parts of the world, including Africa, Asia, the western part of our own continent, etc.  I fully expect that eventually we'll also get into the drought that large parts of the planet are experiencing right now.  I think that will make the temperatures spike much higher than they are right now.  I think you've noticed the drier springs the last couple of years too, I believe within a few years that will extend to summer too.  Hopefully we'll get into more of a mid 1960s type pattern with much drier years.

Higher dew points tend to place a cap on how temperatures can get, but  I think we'll break through the cap once we get into the kind of drought being experienced by large regions of the globe.

The West becoming drier while the East gets wetter is part of the long term trend. So the precipitation response is different while the whole CONUS warms. Some studies show the drought spreading into the Plains in the future. But they are still wet in our area. 

 

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The West becoming drier while the East gets wetter is part of the long term trend. So the precipitation response is different while the whole CONUS warms. Some studies show the drought spreading into the Plains in the future. But they are still wet in our area. 

 

I remember you once said that once our source air gets drier, we would get drier too.  How far east would the dryness need to get before it impacts us?

Might be something 10 years out maybe?

 

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So the earth has warmed about 1.8 degrees since the 1800s.  Understandably, this is not uniform across the globe.  Recently, the NYC metro area seems to greatly exceed that, which should mean that there are other areas that are "below normal"?  Certainly the poles are above normal as evidenced by the glacier melting rate.  We are being told that temperatures in Central and South America near the equator are getting warmer as well, which they say is one reason for the unprecendented migration.  Again, the NYC metro area has been way above average almost every month for the last several years.  This is explained by the unusually high Pacific ocean temperatures causing circulataions to bring warmer air straight up to Alaska and affect the normal jet stream patterns.  Is the global warming causing this pattern to continue in an endless cycle, which would seem to suggest that global warming will increase even greater than the greenhouse gases effect (alone)?  And where are the below normal temperature areas been occuring?

As an aside, I find it astonishing that scientists agreed on the CFCs causing the ozone layer holes, and people acted accordingly.  I assume there is not an agreed upon (objective) model proving global warming?  Are the patterns so complex that you cannot develop a reliable model to predict global warming due to greenhouse gases?  I would assume yes, as they found that the oceans did absorb some of the CO2, and throw one theory into a crash and burn.  I am in the camp that believes the greenhouse gases are causing global warming.  How to address it is another matter.

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On 10/21/2022 at 10:01 AM, Dark Star said:

So the earth has warmed about 1.8 degrees since the 1800s.  Understandably, this is not uniform across the globe.  Recently, the NYC metro area seems to greatly exceed that, which should mean that there are other areas that are "below normal"?  Certainly the poles are above normal as evidenced by the glacier melting rate.  We are being told that temperatures in Central and South America near the equator are getting warmer as well, which they say is one reason for the unprecendented migration.  Again, the NYC metro area has been way above average almost every month for the last several years.  This is explained by the unusually high Pacific ocean temperatures causing circulataions to bring warmer air straight up to Alaska and affect the normal jet stream patterns.  Is the global warming causing this pattern to continue in an endless cycle, which would seem to suggest that global warming will increase even greater than the greenhouse gases effect (alone)?  And where are the below normal temperature areas been occuring?

As an aside, I find it astonishing that scientists agreed on the CFCs causing the ozone layer holes, and people acted accordingly.  I assume there is not an agreed upon (objective) model proving global warming?  Are the patterns so complex that you cannot develop a reliable model to predict global warming due to greenhouse gases?  I would assume yes, as they found that the oceans did absorb some of the CO2, and throw one theory into a crash and burn.  I am in the camp that believes the greenhouse gases are causing global warming.  How to address it is another matter.

High Rockies like Montana and Idaho have warmed much less and possibly even cooled a little.

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14 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Saw the coverage on the ground and via helicopter by WABC, that was downright scary!

How often do we have confirmed tornadoes in January or February in our area?

This one will be confirmed tomorrow.

I'm not sure how accurate the list is in the Wiki article, but it would be the 3rd time that a tornado  hit NJ in Feb.

List of New Jersey tornadoes - Wikipedia

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