nwohweather Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 That line is going to put down a nice boundary for this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Well thank God it looks like nobody was killed. Hope the same holds out for today. That red truck video was insane. They just kept going...how? I would have been too stunned and in shock to do anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 The driver be like: "Don't mind me, just re-enacting that scene from "Twister" is all." 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Good discussion from SPC. I agree that the ceiling is going to come down to how much warm sector activity there is. The parameter space will strongly favor supercells with low-level rotation, given hodograph shape and sizable 0-3km CAPE. The other factor that may limit the outbreak to some degree is that deep layer shear vectors are almost parallel to the boundary, where forcing is stronger. (SW as opposed to more westerly, in higher end events like 4/28/14) The result should be a broken band or two with QLCS circulations and embedded supercell structures. Wind damage with isolated tornadoes can be expected in that regime, while a conditional risk for open sector tornadic supercells will exist as far east as western Alabama later today. Any sustained open sector supercells will have the better potential to be longer lived, in terms of tornado production. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 22, 2022 Author Share Posted March 22, 2022 1 hour ago, sojitodd said: Well thank God it looks like nobody was killed. Hope the same holds out for today. That red truck video was insane. They just kept going...how? I would have been too stunned and in shock to do anything. Got word that one has died in Grayson County on the Texas Side of Lake Texhoma, this was confirmed by a Mod on a different forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 I might end up eating my words later, but looking at current trends I am now getting the feeling yesterday was the bigger of the two days. We will see. I just got a feeling this will be a messy storm mode setting up which will hamper the tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said: I might end up eating my words later, but looking at current trends I am now getting the feeling yesterday was the bigger of the two days. We will see. I just got a feeling this will be a messy storm mode setting up which will hamper the tornado threat. As far as the long tracked tornado threat, probably. Discrete cells will not be as long lived today if they do manage to form. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 1 hour ago, Amped said: As far as the long tracked tornado threat, probably. Discrete cells will not be as long lived today if they do manage to form. I don't know I'm kind of leaning the other way, parameters are such today seems like the day for a potential "big one" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 22, 2022 Author Share Posted March 22, 2022 Warm Sector storms are already developing in Louisiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 90-60 Tor probs on the new watch SEL1 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 61 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern and Southern Louisiana Central and Southern Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1040 AM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A tornado/damaging risk will progress east-northeastward into and across additional portions of southern/eastern Louisiana into much of central and southern Mississippi through the afternoon. A few strong/intense tornadoes (EF2+) are possible, particularly with any semi-discrete supercells that develop to the east of a quasi-linear band of storms. This risk is supported by an increasing moist/unstable air mass in the presence of very strong deep-layer/low-level shear. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles east northeast of Greenwood MS to 20 miles south southwest of Houma LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 60... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 21040. ...Guyer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 TW for Tallulah, LA. Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Big TDS just NW of Vicksburg. Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Almost wonder if it's peaking too early today. Everything popping on the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 22, 2022 Author Share Posted March 22, 2022 Radar is showing the Squall line appearing to break into discrete Supercells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Everything is pretty much evolving as expected. The squall line in western Mississippi may be advancing slightly quicker than forecast, but that’s common for these setups. The wildcard was open warm sector development. It’s underway across southern Mississippi and adjacent Louisiana. A couple of cells near/just west of Hattiesburg appear to be in the process of better organizing. This coincides with cloud breaks and 100+ J/kg 0-3km MLCAPE. I’d keep an eye on that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Going discrete 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 This cell finally looks to be developing a bit and has some tightening rotation, but it might be a bit too close to the line. We'll see if the ones closer to the southern part of the MS/AL border can get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Any reports from that storm? I chased it from Taylorsville to Decatur before bailing. Couldn’t see anything with the terrain and swarm of chasers. Only caught a few brief glimpses of a scuddy wall cloud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Any reports from that storm? I chased it from Taylorsville to Decatur before bailing. Couldn’t see anything with the terrain and swarm of chasers. Only caught a few brief glimpses of a scuddy wall cloud. There's been two tornado reports of a tornado "almost" on the ground, but that's it. Personally know people on it and they say it hasn't been close to producing. Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vman722 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Certainly looks like it has a pretty well defined area of low level rotation on radar but looks like it would be really tough to get a good look through the rain around it. Also looks like the main line will be impacting it more shortly if it doesn't start taking more of a jog E. Curious if any of the smaller cells further south can organize more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, vman722 said: Certainly looks like it has a pretty well defined area of low level rotation on radar but looks like it would be really tough to get a good look through the rain around it. Also looks like the main line will be impacting it more shortly if it doesn't start taking more of a jog E. Curious if any of the smaller cells further south can organize more. Those cells imo are going to be what defines today. Though line certainly couldn’t produce damaging spin up variety tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 The cell near Sandersville looks interesting if it can stave off the junk to it's south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vman722 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 12 minutes ago, mob1 said: The cell near Sandersville looks interesting if it can stave off the junk to it's south. Not sure why that one isn't warned at this point, velocity has looked to warrant it for a little now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Just too messy of a storm mode at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 South of the main line, things look somewhat more semi-discrete with quite a few areas of rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Just too messy of a storm mode at the moment Yeah, there's very little separation anywhere and the atmosphere is getting pretty worked over. There might still be a few strong embedded tornadoes, but I doubt we see anything overly significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Shear vector orientation, virtually uncapped warm sector and a very moist boundary layer = messy and clustered storm mode. A very sloppy evolution so far, but can’t say it’s that far off from what most convection allowing models suggested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now