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3/17/2022, 3/21/2022 & 3/22/2022 Severe Weather, Major Tornado Damage in New Orleans


Iceresistance
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Definitely have concerns that the I-35 corridor in central/S TX including the Austin/Round Rock and San Antonio metros will be targeted tomorrow around rush hour, which is already hectic at the best of times. Many of the afternoon CAM runs indicate the potential for supercells initiating off the Edwards Plateau with very large hail and tornadoes given the forecast soundings around that time. This isn't exactly an area known for potent synoptic severe weather events, either.

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29 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Definitely have concerns that the I-35 corridor in central/S TX including the Austin/Round Rock and San Antonio metros will be targeted tomorrow around rush hour, which is already hectic at the best of times. Many of the afternoon CAM runs indicate the potential for supercells initiating off the Edwards Plateau with very large hail and tornadoes given the forecast soundings around that time. This isn't exactly an area known for potent synoptic severe weather events, either.

Agreed, this is quite a look for tomorrow afternoon/evening

refcmp_uh001h.us_sc.png

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44 minutes ago, CryHavoc said:

Surprised this thread isn't busier considering it's the first outbreak potential in the new "official" tornado season.

At least for this sub, it's yet another messy setup. Not to mention, a lot of the regular posters here are in DFW, which is NW of the highest risk area.

2022 definitely seems to be starting right where 2021 left off, though.

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2 hours ago, MattPetrulli said:

Agreed, this is quite a look for tomorrow afternoon/evening

refcmp_uh001h.us_sc.png

The HRRR is definitely bullish, like it almost always is.  That said, this particular run (18z) does get some pretty substantial CAPE and moisture into DFW, interestingly enough.  I would feel concerned about severe thunderstorm potential here if it verified, provided that a storm could take advantage of the ingredients in place.

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49 minutes ago, Powerball said:

00z HRRR is really ominous for DFW tomorrow evening, including a PDS Tornado sounding.

Yeah this definitely caught my attention. Just don't like how it's trending up for us and how the general threat is expected to unfold along the I-35 corridor during rush hour

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3 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

Yeah this definitely caught my attention. Just don't like how it's trending up for us and how the general threat is expected to unfold along the I-35 corridor during rush hour

It's the Nightmare Scenario, I'm thinking that Schools will go virtual because of this, on the May 2019 High Risk Day, my School shut down because they don't want a Moore 2013 Repeat.

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On 3/19/2022 at 9:29 PM, Iceresistance said:

You can experience the craziest weather (My Grandmother had to use the AC, then the Heater during the same day), have mostly rural views, & most of the time, you can see tornadoes coming from miles away.

 

And also, if you lived in Oklahoma long enough, your gut will tell you if really nasty storms are coming

Yeah, you're not lying. I lived there for 2 years, 8 seasons. The one summer I was there was the hottest summer on record of any city since they began keeping record (at least that is what all of the newspapers and meteorologists said). Then in the spring, I experienced 2 different tornados. One displaced me from my home, the other directly hit a hospital I was in with my 2 year old daughter getting her tonsils removed. Destroyed my car as well with baseball sized hail. Then, the winter of that same insane year came with massive ice storms, 3 different ones, and a huge blizzard. That was the 2nd year of me living there...the moment my lease was up I got the hell out of there. It was too wild for me. 

But, I definitely took that experience of the gut feeling with me. It'll never leave. Have you lived in OK before

Edit to say that I lived in Norman and then moved to Moore. 

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4 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

This is the largest 90% STP contour I've ever seen!

GOODNESS.gif

That's in the center of the Day 2 Moderate Risk & Day 2 Mod Risks are impressive in their own right. I guess we'll see if SPC upgrades to High closer to Tue & expands the other zones. Tuscaloosa is in Enhanced but there's a rapid reduction to Marginal in Birmingham. They're not sure how far north the warmth & instability reaches. I'm sure we'll be the bullseye later in the season though.

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Day 1 Enchanced Riak Area was expanded just far enough NW to technically include Fort Worth and Dallas proper, but they stoped just short of including the entire Metroplex.

And this was mainly for the wind threat. Location of other probabilities didn't really change, expect the hail threat area taking a bit more of a NW to SE orientation.

 

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6 hours ago, Powerball said:

00z HRRR is really ominous for DFW tomorrow evening, including a PDS Tornado sounding.

Parameter-wise and synoptically, 00z NAM was similar to the 00z HRRR. The big difference that the NAM maintain a relatively stout cap, which keeps convective coverage/intensity in check.

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2 hours ago, Powerball said:

Parameter-wise and synoptically, 00z NAM was similar to the 00z HRRR. The big difference that the NAM maintain a relatively stout cap, which keeps convective coverage/intensity in check.

I’m not sure the cap is very strong. If you look at the 00z and 06z 3km NAM, they both show cellular convection along the Dallas - Round Rock corridor. If anything, it’s more concerning that the NAM is showing more isolated convection, as it’s the case that many of these setups get junky fast with too much convection. That doesn’t seem to be the case here. 

The only slight limiting factor may be modest low-level lapse rates, due in part to early precipitation. Still, even with 0-3km lapse rates only near 6 C/km, the quality of the boundary layer moisture profile supports large 0-3km MLCAPE, on the order of 100-200 J/kg. This, along with strong wind profiles supports a significant tornado threat 

As echoed before, this is not exactly a common occurrence for a synoptic severe weather outbreak, this far south.

HRRR looks nasty with intense, semi discrete convection. NAM is nasty with a weaker looking broken band of convection within a volatile parameter space. Either scenario isn’t good (if you don’t like damaging thunderstorms). 

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  • Iceresistance changed the title to 3/17/2022, 3/21/2022 & 3/22/2022 Severe Weather, D1 is a large Enhanced, could go Moderate, & D2 is a larger Moderate Risk.
  • Iceresistance changed the title to 3/17/2022, 3/21/2022 & 3/22/2022 Severe Weather, Major Tornado Damage in New Orleans

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