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Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture


40/70 Benchmark
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12 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Boxing day was a good storm here. Must have had a foot and a half or so.

Nice 8" event here, verified blizz for BGR, WVL, AUG with 12-15".  Wife had a follow-up (for knee replacement surgery) at PWM, and we had S- as we headed south.  Entered the white tunnel south of Belgrade Village and it got progressively narrower as we continued.  With some time to spare, we chose to stop at the Wendy's near I-95 for lunch, hoping the blizz would calm down.  (In vain, we ended up calling the Dr office to cancel.)  Wind was the strongest in which we tried to walk since Bob, and during gusts (50+ likely) the Irving station next door would disappear.  An unfortunate cameraman from BGR ch5 was trying to film the storm and with the big camera adding resistance, he was having a tough time of it.  As we headed home, it took less than 5 miles to pop out of the blizz band and back into S- with light winds.  Wash/rinse/repeat for Jan 12 (though w/o the Dr appt) as the 3 cities again had verified blizz while I was driving around AUG and then home.  Rate was heavier than Boxing Day but winds much less, seemed below blizz conditions to me.  Nice 7.3" at home, another 10-15" 25-30 miles south and east.  Then a 1.5" fringe from the late month KU.  Had more snow in Feb than Jan.

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4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

And just like that all the hype on Twitter about Eurasian snowcover, recurving super typhoons and GOA/western North America warm blobs stopped: cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

 

Almost as fast the hype about the intensifying la nina.

I mention the SAI, but I certainly do not base my entire forecast off of it.

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4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

 

Well the toughing gets replaced by ridging in AK so that looks like a change to me. 

Also, nobody cares about Eurasian snow cover any more. I don't care  if the snowpack extending into Beijing, it means jack dick to me.

Yes. I never believed the whole snowcover theory either. It’s just funny how certain things only get hyped to no end on Twitter when perceived “favorable” then when they are not, crickets 

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9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

DT is going big...on the Cosgrove train.

It’s literally the same exact forecast year after year from DT…he always says whatever ENSO event (Niña/Nino) we are in is going to die very quickly, it won’t matter by mid-winter and it’s going to be cold and snowy on the east coast. He’s predicted the last 5 winters in a row to be cold and snowy with blocking 

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s literally the same exact forecast year after year from DT…he always says whatever ENSO event (Niña/Nino) we are in is going to die very quickly, it won’t matter by mid-winter and it’s going to be cold and snowy on the east coast. He’s predicted the last 5 winters in a row to be cold and snowy with blocking 

I will admit, I feel like ENSO dying early is a fraudulent, weenie rationale bc there is a lag, anyway. 

It can help with PNA late, I guess.

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s literally the same exact forecast year after year from DT…he always says whatever ENSO event (Niña/Nino) we are in is going to die very quickly, it won’t matter by mid-winter and it’s going to be cold and snowy on the east coast. He’s predicted the last 5 winters in a row to be cold and snowy with blocking 

Amusing...

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13 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Who are the recommended forecasters to follow outside of this forum for long range/winter forecasts?

To be honest, although I'm only a "  weather enthusiast " lol...... I've been following weather since I was kid. So it's been a while ( I'm 50 now ). With that said, I've seen many a forecasts from very good meteorologists that did not come to fruition.

Weather is a very tough thing to forecast in the future. Look at a couple years ago when we were sure we were going to have a more than decent winter during the fall time, and it just didn't pan out ( things didn't fall into place or something happened with one of the weather patterns that wasn't expected ). I have learned to love the weather and accept the surprises it would bring us throughout the months. That way there's no disappointment ( well.. at least it is a smaller blow to the gut ).

I think a lot of people follow these forecasts like their gold, and get so disappointed and so upset with these meteorologists and call them idiots...... well I kind of laugh at that, because here we are, not professionals, and criticizing these people for just following the model guidance and their experience that they have. Are there some that tend to hype? Yes there are. But I'm pretty stoked to see what happens this winter. I know they'll be some surprises, and know they'll be some disappointments. Only time will tell. Justy feelings on forecasting itself.

 

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On 10/27/2022 at 11:22 AM, snowman19 said:

Yes. I never believed the whole snowcover theory either. It’s just funny how certain things only get hyped to no end on Twitter when perceived “favorable” then when they are not, crickets 

This is how people are, anyway, regardless of genre/context.   The Internet 'socializing' just pulls that specific human attribute out and particularly showcases it - lol...

No, but regardless of domain, people don't take responsibility very willingly for what they don't want to perceive as being true. It's not just a weather thing.

It got society into trouble when they couldn't/didnt want to believe the hype behind a certain president's chances to be elected, and being unable to do so... cost the election - probably.... I mean lots of moving parts there, but all gears grinding, the 'threat' was ignored or at minimum, not taken seriously enough. Boom. Just an example.

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49 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is how people are, anyway, regardless of genre/context.   The Internet 'socializing' just pulls that specific human attribute out and particularly showcases it - lol...

No, but regardless of domain, people don't take responsibility very willingly for what they don't want to perceive as being true. It's not just a weather thing.

It got society into trouble when they couldn't/didnt want to believe the hype behind a certain president's chances to be elected, and being unable to do so... cost the election - probably.... I mean lots of moving parts there, but all gears grinding, the 'threat' was ignored or at minimum, not taken seriously enough. Boom. Just an example.

Not to detract from your overall point, but the SAI is a rather poor example...at least today. Many have reached the point that I have and don't make a huge deal out of it either way.

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will admit, I feel like ENSO dying early is a fraudulent, weenie rationale bc there is a lag, anyway. 

It can help with PNA late, I guess.

I agree. When doesn’t any ENSO event not die during the winter? Every Niña or Nino normally peaks between October and December then fades out during the winter. That’s 100% a normal progression. And yes there is a lag whether certain people want to admit it or not 

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On 10/24/2022 at 9:06 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That, and I also think that the current SSTs belie the fact that the atmosphere is beginning to part ways with what is a very stagnant cold ENSO event.....its almost akin to how winds transfer to the surface more readily in an intensifying tropical system, as opposed to weakening or even steady-state systems. The mechanisms that foster the development of ENSO are what also fuel the associated IOD response and couple with the atmosphere. In a season like this one, while we still have a well coupled event on paper, much of that is residual and more a reflection of what had been...kind of like SSTs being shaped by a previous H5 pattern. I think a lot of this la nina right now is merely an atmospheric imprint of the previous couple of years. At least this is how I perceived the research that I conducted on the relationship between ENSO and the IOD.

This goes along with what John is saying, although I think his attribution is probably more geared towards CC than mine.

Well, this event is going to fade somewhat faster than average and I do think it's rather stagnant,  as described above.

36 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I agree. When doesn’t any ENSO event not die during the winter? Every Niña or Nino normally peaks between October and December then fades out during the winter. That’s 100% a normal progression. And yes there is a lag whether certain people want to admit it or not 

 

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ray loves the guy. IMO .. he’s not good . To each their own 

Yea regardless whether he’s good or not, just a nostalgic thought. 
 

My morning ritual during my high school days back during those years was wake up at 6, read his newsletter, check wright-weather, and double check the LR AVN/MRF whatever it was called back in those days haha (GFS) 

BTW this year I don’t plan any chases up near you guys unless there’s some crazy HECS like 2013 level on the models. I got my fill during last years blizzard. I would like to go LES chasing. Never experienced a major LES event. 
 

can’t believe we just about finally made it to November, let’s gooooo.

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