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Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture


40/70 Benchmark
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6 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

I apologize for taking us off track.  To make @Typhoon Tip happy, here's on-topic subject matter, with a link to Accuweather's 2022-2023 US winter forecast:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/accuweather-2022-2023-us-winter-forecast/1252283

Highlights for us:

  • La Niña, volume 3
  • Average snowfall SNE/NH/VT, above average ME
  • Slightly above average temps
  • Average precip
  • Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano may have lingering effects on this winter's weather.

"Boston may end up being the only major city along the Interstate 95 corridor that finishes the winter with near-normal snowfall. AccuWeather long-range forecasters are predicting that 40 to 50 inches will accumulate in the city, around the average snowfall amount of 49.2 inches. Last winter, Boston finished the season with 54 inches of snow with 23.5 inches falling during a blizzard on Jan. 29."

I had forgotten that event..  But now that I'm thinking about it, that storm was an under-performer up here along Rt 2/N Massachusetts. A singular event whose distribution served a microcosm of the season on whole.   ...uh, I think?     

The 23.5" total at Boston and the yearly total ...belies the aggravation for winter enthusiasts - which ( lol ) cannot really be appeased...  The distribution was odd, both in terms of spatial layout ( you know ..who got what/when), with most area not doing as well as a select few that were even above normal in some cases.  That's the impression I had

At a regional scale, I wonder how the winter did - taking all climate sites and inclusion of any validated ancillary data to give weight ..etc...  I'm wondering if the winter was above or below average in both snow and temperature.  

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I have tried to clear the air with @raindancewx a few times, but to no avail. I don't care for all of the vitriol and it detracts from the quality of threads, as others have pointed out. The fact of the matter is that I feel is though he is probably a better forecaster than I am and is also most likely more intelligent, as well. The guy clearly has a background in the sciences and is very impressive. But that doesn't mean that he still couldn't learn something from me if he would stop attacking me and pry open his mind even just a crack. I will never claim to be the brightest guy in the room, and am not here to engage in pissing contests.  I do the best that I can and try to add to the greater body of knowledge studying one of the greater passions of my life.

End of story-

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1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said:

Straight up just an typical Nina prediction

Yeah that's what I got from it as well.  Not much nuance there.  Plus the CPC never gets into details anyway, but it's interesting to look at nonetheless to see where they are leaning...

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3 hours ago, bristolri_wx said:

CPC DJF JFM

 

DJF20222023.jpg

JFM2023.jpg

I'd be encourage with that temp and prec distribution if I were a winter enthusiast !  

Firstly ... that distribution suggests they are asking for a positive PNAP base-line stated ( that means more +PNAs than -PNAs)   

Secondly... that's likely to get compressed E as the most likely 'correction vector', nearing 40N and above latitudes.  That would place the mean baroclinic alley of ill-repute right down our block of naughty affairs. 

Thirdly ... I'm proud of NCEP/CPC for having the courage to put out any kind of a chart containing the word 'below,' when in deference to either winter, or an outlook effort.  That may in fact be the first time they've down that in 54 years :arrowhead:   ...kidding, but it is a rarer tact by them. 

Fourthly, ... just some supposition but ... they are bringing that look into the NP as far E as the western Lakes... despite whatever bias it is that preferentially keeps them banging out positive temperature outlooks as baser canvas. Without hitting the cafeteria at NCEP and opening a dialogue over lunch ... that's sort of implicating them as being bullish.

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1 hour ago, codfishsnowman said:

Well today's system behaved like many of our snowstorms . Equivalent of 3 to 6 inches forecast and verification was some sprinkles and partly sunny (few flurries and dim sum)..... While the south coast did do ok they still only got about 50 pct of forecasted qpf

 

Mmmmm yum

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EC trough/well below average this year is the first time since 2003. 2017,2018,2019 were good opposite matches (3/4 since 1986), and I was surprised that Boston only had 2" of snow in 2018-19. Check out this composite. 

0YTPOFbrVi.png.d14ffebc091edc587d81d1852eecce16.png.bbe07c3bea24c89b00596cf8bda553ec.png

I at least think it will be a +PNA December. (I'm referring to Sept 23-Oct 10. below average/EC trough 9/23-10/10)

All of the roll forward years are average to cold, too.

2d.png.b31ece84b5e806d4e4e39c29284bea23.png

2l.png.93ee5a29b4ef06acec90fd3f6cb4d8ac.png

3d.png.bd36e404cf2b22265639234a243bc27d.png

2o.png.1ff77e1d32003bbcd17b832d8af966c9.png

2n.png.40b81cc539ce88d3ad0c135eb820ecfb.png

2m.png.19f0aa6a182cac8b4310ad3e9ec71631.png

Mostly EC Trough since April.. confirms what I think, that real cold is at our doorstep, normal progression stuff..

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Anyway, how different we are this year.

1a.gif.ea4f7d791d48301d346b4469218b4cf7.gif

1aa.gif.7e9726a861ffde160258d056cee7d75d.gif

1aaa.gif.cc05e707f39d69ec1b55a09c552d20e2.gif

You have to go back to 2003. 

1aaaa.gif.58c7ecaf2f6415c89c77d3713701bae8.gif

(Another point, with my last post, it's data after 1986, 14 analogs, and the satellite -0- average is 1948-2020. so it's impressive that all the maps are normal to below everywhere, because of the skew)

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7 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

EC trough/well below average this year is the first time since 2003. 2017,2018,2019 were good opposite matches (3/4 since 1986), and I was surprised that Boston only had 2" of snow in 2018-19. Check out this composite. 

0YTPOFbrVi.png.d14ffebc091edc587d81d1852eecce16.png.bbe07c3bea24c89b00596cf8bda553ec.png

I at least think it will be a +PNA December. (I'm referring to Sept 23-Oct 10. below average/EC trough 9/23-10/10)

All of the roll forward years are average to cold, too.

2d.png.b31ece84b5e806d4e4e39c29284bea23.png

2l.png.93ee5a29b4ef06acec90fd3f6cb4d8ac.png

3d.png.bd36e404cf2b22265639234a243bc27d.png

2o.png.1ff77e1d32003bbcd17b832d8af966c9.png

2n.png.40b81cc539ce88d3ad0c135eb820ecfb.png

2m.png.19f0aa6a182cac8b4310ad3e9ec71631.png

Mostly EC Trough since April.. confirms what I think, that real cold is at our doorstep, normal progression stuff..

2” snow? They had more than that. Caveats apply as they had measuring issues too.

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On 9/22/2022 at 2:32 PM, ORH_wxman said:

I think we'll know a lot more in the next 2-4 weeks on if this ENSO event will get one last surge into solid moderate territory or if it will just sort of straddle the line between weak/moderate.

There's still very strong cold anomalies just lurkeng below the the sfc and the easterlies are forecast to pick up. Theoretically, we should see a strengthening of the Nina from this, but if it doesn't happen, we can prob stick a fork in anything stronger than low-end moderate. The previous round of easterlies though had trouble getting east of the dateline....so we'll see about this one over the next week.

 

ENSO_Tdepth3.gif

HovmollerSEP22.gif

 

On 9/22/2022 at 2:36 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I remember us having this same conversation last month and frankly, I don't see that anything has changed. I expect a similar outcome.

 

On 9/22/2022 at 2:48 PM, ORH_wxman said:

You can see the verification above how the easterly anomalies basically got stopped at the dateline in early September.....the current prog has them getting further east, but if verification is like last time, then this one will prob rot around -1C.

The one difference though is that the negative anomalies have risen closer to the surface than we had in mid/late August, so it won't take much for them to cool the sfc by several ticks. I'm really only focusing on the next 4-5 weeks or so....anything after October typically is getting too late to really affect the season from an ENSO standpoint....I suppose it could still affect late Feb into March, but there are a million other active variables that get stronger throughout the winter which can affect the season-end versus early on.

 21SEP2022     19.7-1.0     24.1-0.8     25.8-0.9     27.7-1.0
 28SEP2022     19.0-1.7     23.9-1.0     25.8-0.8     27.6-1.1

The new weekly number is up a tick again.....this event actually has somewhat of an eastward lean now.

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

 21SEP2022     19.7-1.0     24.1-0.8     25.8-0.9     27.7-1.0
 28SEP2022     19.0-1.7     23.9-1.0     25.8-0.8     27.6-1.1

The new weekly number is up a tick again.....this event actually has somewhat of an eastward lean now.

subsurface is actually net + , I found a 0.90 vs 0.75 correlation subsurface vs Nino 3.4/MEI 0.80. December will be +PNA, so expect further subsurface warming. 

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9 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

subsurface is actually net + , I found a 0.90 vs 0.75 correlation subsurface vs Nino 3.4/MEI 0.80. December will be +PNA, so expect further subsurface warming. 

I have been saying this all fall....two things are vastly overstated with respect to the ensuing cold season:

1: La nina

2: -PNA

Ben Knol had another Tweet with that dumb weight lifting emoji talking about how strong la nina is getting....I pointed out that he has been saying this ALL fall and back to late summer, yet the ONI is UP four consecutive months and counting. I pointed out how useless his comparisons are stating out how strong this current event is relative to climo....."only events stronger at this point are 1998 and 1999", blan, blah", when this event is nothing like those because it is and has been STAGNANT. Its residual, unlike those events, which were flourishing.

Crickets.

He reminds me of JB, just in the other direction....just looking for clicks, or something...

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36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

 21SEP2022     19.7-1.0     24.1-0.8     25.8-0.9     27.7-1.0
 28SEP2022     19.0-1.7     23.9-1.0     25.8-0.8     27.6-1.1

The new weekly number is up a tick again.....this event actually has somewhat of an eastward lean now.

Eastern regions definitely seeing some of that cooler subsurface starting to upwell.

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34 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

STJ has been very dry though, stronger La Nina-like. I've noticed this (precip) has stayed consistent with surface ENSO obs

Yes, this is the one aspect of la nina that may play out this season.

Seeing that play out in a lot of my concurrent analogs, too.

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44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, which I am fine with. No sign of it making it up in 3.4.

I think it will spread west a little as the easterly anomalies look to continue for the next week or two and push 3.4 down some, but the eastward shift is good imho. 
 

I don’t think a slightly stronger Niña is really anything to worry about anyway. When it’s not likely to exceed low end moderate. Esp in New England. Maybe further south might sweat it a bit more.  

 

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39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think it will spread west a little as the easterly anomalies look to continue for the next week or two and push 3.4 down some, but the eastward shift is good imho. 
 

I don’t think a slightly stronger Niña is really anything to worry about anyway. When it’s not likely to exceed low end moderate. Esp in New England. Maybe further south might sweat it a bit more.  

 

Yea, I mean...I had expected it cool down enough to peak as moderate ONI again, but its needs to start dropping in the next week or two. Would probably need to see the weekly get down to about -1.5c.

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13 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Here’s my scientific take on winter with some observations from nature 

 

 

049E71F5-24C6-45D1-B2F1-E7BFAF9149CE.jpeg

Lol.
 

Oh we laugh. But in terms of ground hog general forecasts, models tracking climate sensitive behavior and adaptations would own the CPC’s analysis every year. Evolutionary scale>>synoptic scale. There is so much to learn here. We need less programmers and more philosophers. Yea, for a while it was the opposite, no doubt. Not anymore. 

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, this is the one aspect of la nina that may play out this season.

Seeing that play out in a lot of my concurrent analogs, too.

Active northern stream with lots of Miller Bs instead of southern stream driven Miller Asshole? Sign me up! 

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