Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the plains and Canada haven’t had any trouble being cold recently. We’re getting shafted recently on top of any underlying warming trend. 
 

I’ll have to find the graphic (or I could prob just make one I guess), but I recently saw a NHEM temp trend from 1990-2021 and New England was one of the warmest trends anywhere outside of the arctic. We can send that one to Tip when he says we’ve been avoiding the warming….maybe for a while we were but not anymore. 

Yeah I saw that. It also spawned some alarmist articles from that LOL. 

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the plains and Canada haven’t had any trouble being cold recently. We’re getting shafted recently on top of any underlying warming trend. 
 

I’ll have to find the graphic (or I could prob just make one I guess), but I recently saw a NHEM temp trend from 1990-2021 and New England was one of the warmest trends anywhere outside of the arctic. We can send that one to Tip when he says we’ve been avoiding the warming….maybe for a while we were but not anymore. 

it's funny, although the climate is undoubtedly warming, there will be areas that see record breaking cold / snow in the CONUS regardless. look at Seattle last winter with that record breaking Aleutian ridge:

crazy thing is, there's nothing to say that we can't get that kind of behemoth ridge over the W US into AK or over Greenland instead... just need different forcing that will be present when the base state flips 2023-24 or shortly thereafter. there's going to be a pretty sick winter once the band snaps in the other direction. @40/70 Benchmark shares the same general sentiment

[ORH_wxman]

35 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

 

 

crazy thing is, there's nothing to say that we can't get that kind of behemoth ridge over the W US into AK or over Greenland instead... just need different forcing that will be present when the base state flips 2023-24 or shortly thereafter. there's going to be a pretty sick winter once the band snaps in the other direction. @40/70 Benchmark shares the same general sentiment

Yeah and we actually got some ridiculous stuff in the 2013-2015 period further east. Some stations in the Midwest/upper plains had their coldest winter on record in 2013-2014. Then a chunk of New England had their coldest month on record in February 2015. 

 

[raindancewx]

A lot of the looks I get look like this - I wouldn't call it horrible for your region. A bit warm, but not too bad for snow. That warm spot everyone obsesses over in the NE Pacific south of Alaska has been cooling a lot lately. With anti-2004-05 in there, I tend to get 30-35 inches of snow for Logan in similar setups. 

(I do the anomaly of 2004-05 in a given spot, and flip it, and then include the flipped value in the average. So instead of +45 inches of snow, it's -45, and lowers your total).

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

We've been in a pretty severe cold drought in the east for seasonal cold winter temps too...so we're prob due for a few colder seasons even within the present day baseline. Areas like the midwest and plains have been much colder....it even shows up well on the 5-year composite. The upper plains/N rockies have actually been below average in the means the last 5 years while the east has torched.

 

 

No surprise it looks like that considering we have been in like an 8 year la nina.

We aren't dodging the warming, but we have been dodging the snow decrease...at least regionally speaking.  I wouldn't count the shaft in my area.

[40/70 Benchmark]

We will get a very healthy modoki el nino next year that will finally shake things up.

[WxWatcher007]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and we actually got some ridiculous stuff in the 2013-2015 period further east. Some stations in the Midwest/upper plains had their coldest winter on record in 2013-2014. Then a chunk of New England had their coldest month on record in February 2015. 

 

Winter 2013-14 may be my favorite winter, and I spent it in DC. Basically wall to wall winter from Jan 1 through March.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Winter 2013-14 may be my favorite winter, and I spent it in DC. Basically wall to wall winter from Jan 1 through March.

The 1993-1994 and 2013-2014 winters were similar to me in the sense that they were relatively disappointing for my specific locale. Snowfall was only like 20% above average at most, which is below what much of the other region had and there wasn't any large, defining event....overrated in my view. Its not a jackpot fetish thing, either because 2004-2005, 2014-2015 and 1995-1996 were all top notch in my book and I still lost to the south shore in every one of them.

That said, I'd kill for 75" at this point....

[ORH_wxman]

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The 1993-1994 and 2013-2014 winters were similar to me in the sense that they were relatively disappointing for my specific locale. Snowfall was only like 20% above average at most, which is below what much of the other region had and there wasn't any large, defining event....overrated in my view. Its not a jackpot fetish thing, either because 2004-2005, 2014-2015 and 1995-1996 were all top notch in my book and I still lost to the south shore in every one of them.

That said, I'd kill for 75" at this point....

'13-14 really wasnt much to write home about anywhere in New England outside of maybe western CT? They did pretty far above climo I think. Feb/Mar 2014 were pretty epic in NNE and even parts of the interior of SNE but January was kind of a buzzkill despite the cold....we had like 3 separate hideous cutters that month to ruin the vibe. In NNE, January was actually just an epic turd....at least in SNE we got a couple good events despite the cutters mixed in....up there, they either whiffed or got cutters that month....very different from 1994 when at least we were keeping the cold and snowpack around when it wasn't snowing.

 

I'd certainly take another '13-14 though....it was a solid winter, but it falls short of several others in the past 15 years like '17-18, '14-15, '12-13, and '10-11.

[CoastalWx]

I enjoyed 13-14 in the fact that we had some December fun. The lack of snow in December has been an absolutely killjoy for me....to the point where it almost ruins winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

'13-14 really wasnt much to write home about anywhere in New England outside of maybe western CT? They did pretty far above climo I think. Feb/Mar 2014 were pretty epic in NNE and even parts of the interior of SNE but January was kind of a buzzkill despite the cold....we had like 3 separate hideous cutters that month to ruin the vibe. In NNE, January was actually just an epic turd....at least in SNE we got a couple good events despite the cutters mixed in....up there, they either whiffed or got cutters that month....very different from 1994 when at least we were keeping the cold and snowpack around when it wasn't snowing.

 

I'd certainly take another '13-14 though....it was a solid winter, but it falls short of several others in the past 15 years like '17-18, '14-15, '12-13, and '10-11.

1993-1994 was one of those seasons where I was either not close enough, or too close to the coast....lots of CJs and ORH county deals. But yea...the consistent cold preserved my 3" of glaciated slush, 5" of fluff oscillation.

[tamarack]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

'13-14 really wasnt much to write home about anywhere in New England outside of maybe western CT? They did pretty far above climo I think. Feb/Mar 2014 were pretty epic in NNE and even parts of the interior of SNE but January was kind of a buzzkill despite the cold....we had like 3 separate hideous cutters that month to ruin the vibe. In NNE, January was actually just an epic turd....at least in SNE we got a couple good events despite the cutters mixed in....up there, they either whiffed or got cutters that month....very different from 1994 when at least we were keeping the cold and snowpack around when it wasn't snowing.

 

I'd certainly take another '13-14 though....it was a solid winter, but it falls short of several others in the past 15 years like '17-18, '14-15, '12-13, and '10-11.

So would I.  Despite the frustrating January - significantly colder and wetter than average while dead last for snow in our 24 years here - Dec, Feb, Mar each had a bit over 30" and the winter featured 5 double-digit snowfalls and the oldest March ever at the Farmington co-op.  Great retention, too - 3rd most SDDs and one of 6 winters to reach 40"+ depth.

The low-snow Decembers are disappointing, with the most recent 4 all BN.  However, that's also true for March, and over the past 4 winters the cumulative 16 "snow months" have been AN 3 times and BN 13.  The 4 years prior it was 8 up, 8 down.   Previous worst for that odd metric was 02-03 thru 05-06, with 4 AN, 12 BN.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1993-1994 was one of those seasons where I was either not close enough, or too close to the coast....lots of CJs and ORH county deals. But yea...the consistent cold preserved my 3" of glaciated slush, 5" of fluff oscillation.

It's probably good you weren't where you are now on 1/2/14      10 miles away from 2' of snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It's probably good you weren't where you are now on 1/2/14      10 miles away from 2' of snow.

What was that, a C/NNE deal?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What was that, a C/NNE deal?

Essex county CJ. Boxford had 2'. 

[tamarack]

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What was that, a C/NNE deal?

Not NNE - had 1.9" here (month's biggest snowfall ).  Most fell at temp near -10.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Essex county CJ. Boxford had 2'. 

Oh, I remember that...I had like 1' in Wilmington. That was a CJ band they got in Boxford.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh, I remember that...I had like 1' in Wilmington. That was a CJ band they got in Boxford.

A lot of it fell before the main synoptic stuff arrived. I was actually working in Boston that day and we had a lot of weenie flakes with occasionally light-steady snow, but the radar was totally lit up on the north shore....I think some areas had 10" before the better synoptic stuff even moved in.

 

I don't have a lot of radar saved from that storm, but here was the ocean enhancement just starting that morning. It really cranked in the several hours after this though....but you can see it starting to get going off the ocean on the north shore.

 

[CoastalWx]

24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

A lot of it fell before the main synoptic stuff arrived. I was actually working in Boston that day and we had a lot of weenie flakes with occasionally light-steady snow, but the radar was totally lit up on the north shore....I think some areas had 10" before the better synoptic stuff even moved in.

 

I don't have a lot of radar saved from that storm, but here was the ocean enhancement just starting that morning. It really cranked in the several hours after this though....but you can see it starting to get going off the ocean on the north shore.

 

BOS TDWR really showed it. I remember looking at BOX and being like...ok that's decent returns. Then I looked at the TDWR and was like holy shit...lol. 

[Snowcrazed71]

What I'd really like to see is some really good blocking and a nice large Nor'easter moving at a slow clip. I don't think we've had a multi-day nor'easter that hung around in quite some time. And I mean that as far as the northeastern area as a whole. There's been more specific localized areas that have gotten something like this but not the megalopolis.

It just feels like everything has been so quick and the storms are in and out, and quick hitting. We're bound to get a blocking pattern to happen again soon. We're overdue.

[ORH_wxman]

47 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

What I'd really like to see is some really good blocking and a nice large Nor'easter moving at a slow clip. I don't think we've had a multi-day nor'easter that hung around in quite some time. And I mean that as far as the northeastern area as a whole. There's been more specific localized areas that have gotten something like this but not the megalopolis.

It just feels like everything has been so quick and the storms are in and out, and quick hitting. We're bound to get a blocking pattern to happen again soon. We're overdue.

Last one around here was December 1-3, 2019. Prob have to go back to the Jan 2016 blizzard to have one for the Mid-Atlantic to NYC crowd. You need a good downstream block in the Atlantic usually and a relaxed enough flow to create a cutoff at least temporarily.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think envisioning the perfect season for my area....I'd like a repeat of 2000-2001 with a more east based la nina in order to minimize the relative lull mid season due to the shift N of the storm track, and perhaps a slightly warmer 1995-1996 and 2014-2015.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Last one around here was December 1-3, 2019. Prob have to go back to the Jan 2016 blizzard to have one for the Mid-Atlantic to NYC crowd. You need a good downstream block in the Atlantic usually and a relaxed enough flow to create a cutoff at least temporarily.

That was my last event of 20"+...was a double-barreled deal. 

Saved that season from challenging for futility.

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That was my last event of 20"+...was a double-barreled deal. 

Saved that season from challenging for futility.

That season was historically awful after about mid-December. We had a couple of smaller events after the big one was wiped out by a cutter a week later, but then that season basically went '88-'89 on us despite being a borderline weak Nino....

If all you knew is we had a borderline weak El Nino and in early December, we had a monster storm, we'd probably be all thinking triple digit seasonal totals for the interior. Shows how much we would have known.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That season was historically awful after about mid-December. We had a couple of smaller events after the big one was wiped out by a cutter a week later, but then that season basically went '88-'89 on us despite being a borderline weak Nino....

If all you knew is we had a borderline weak El Nino and in early December, we had a monster storm, we'd probably be all thinking triple digit seasonal totals for the interior. Shows how much we would have known.

Yea, that was one of two really atrocious outlooks that I have done....I missed 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 horribly, but have been pretty good as whole, otherwise since I began in 2014-2015.

Looking back, its probably good in the long run because I was pretty arrogant after basically scripting 2017-2018 before it played out and thought I knew it all.

I've done a ton more research since that dose of humble pie from mother nature.

[tamarack]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That season was historically awful after about mid-December. We had a couple of smaller events after the big one was wiped out by a cutter a week later, but then that season basically went '88-'89 on us despite being a borderline weak Nino....

If all you knew is we had a borderline weak El Nino and in early December, we had a monster storm, we'd probably be all thinking triple digit seasonal totals for the interior. Shows how much we would have known.

That season was terrible here until after the equinox.  Only 2.8" from the fringe of that early Dec storm and then nothing over 7" until spring arrived - only one winter has failed to produce an 8"+ event, 2005-06.  (Topped out at 5.9", my 1st winter that failed to reach 6" since 1967-68 in NNJ.)  The first 20 days of spring 2020 produced storms of 10.3" and 8.5", with the 3.2" on 5/9 the cherry on a very modest sundae. 

[George001]

If la ninas are more favorable early in the season, since this Nina is expected to peak early and rapidly weaken in the back half of winter, could that mean we get the big Nina first half but avoid the unfavorable Nina Feb-March? Last years Nina strengthened deep into the winter where as this Nina is expected to be weak in the early half of winter and potentially non existent the second half (enso neutral). 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

If la ninas are more favorable early in the season, since this Nina is expected to peak early and rapidly weaken in the back half of winter, could that mean we get the big Nina first half but avoid the unfavorable Nina Feb-March? Last years Nina strengthened deep into the winter where as this Nina is expected to be weak in the early half of winter and potentially non existent the second half (enso neutral). 

Yes, I think that is a possibility...a couple of 3rd year la nina seasons have done that...even a strong one.

[It's Always Sunny]

ENSO neutral isn't a bad phase to be in either for Mass.

[40/70 Benchmark]

47 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

ENSO neutral isn't a bad phase to be in either for Mass.

Off the top of my head, weak Nino, weak Nina and Moderate Nino are def better...but it's not terrible.