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Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?


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The issue with this event as usual is timing lol Guidance flips us to snow around 12-1 am on Sunday, NWS only has 1/2"-1" overnight.. While it might snow most of Sunday it's also looking like light precipitation rates which don't bode well for accumulation, even with temps below freezing..

StormTotalSnowWeb (69).jpg

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Mid 20s on Monday is impressive for this time of year, obviously lol Actually all 3 days are quite a bit below average..

Sunday
Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Sunday Night
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Monday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. Blustery.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 33.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 20.
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GFS has been fairly consistent bringing another trough through in the first week of April..It wouldn't equate to much wintry but it would keep us on the cooler side with upper 30s/lower40s type weather.. Actually the GFS doesn't really have many warm days, one here or there lol

ef9a3ded-33f6-488e-b12f-c0550a56691d.gif

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Saturday night into Sunday, cooling will continue as winds shift
northwest between high over northern Plains and low pressure off New
England. H85 temps will drop steadily with readings centered around
-15c Sunday afternoon. Given the cold air aloft with increasing open
water off both lakes, expect widespread snow showers with lake
enhanced snow across higher terrain east of Lake Erie and for areas
southeast of Lake Ontario. Several inches of snow could result and
right now it is looking like we`ll need a late season winter weather
advisory for parts of the area. Eventually, expect the lake enhanced
snow to transition to diurnally driven snow showers in the afternoon
as the core of the coldest air aloft and associated steeper lapse
rates approaches the Lower Lakes.

Moving into Sunday night the cold cyclonic northwesterly flow will
continue across the Lower Lakes with scattered snow showers across
the region. Blended pops, including the NBM, looked way too low in
this type of setup given plenty of moisture across the lower Great
Lakes and sufficient over-water instability so adjusted these upward
as as result. It should be one of the coldest nights of this period
with lows found in the single digits east of Lake Ontario to teens
elsewhere by daybreak Monday as the flow across the lakes results in
at least some (relative) moderation.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The axis of a negative tilt, longwave trough will lie across the
eastern Great Lakes this period, pushing an airmass that is more
typical for January than late March across our region. Model 850 hPa
temperatures at 12Z Monday are near or even colder than the coldest
850 hPa temperature sampled by KBUF balloon radiosonde for the
date...or even the late March 850 hPa average minimum temperature.
Thus will expect mid-January type weather with lake effect snow down
wind of the lakes on a northwest wind quickly becoming cellular and
diminishing with the higher March sun angle through the day.
Temperatures will be cold, with highs only in the 20s. Monday night
a clearing sky and for some a fresh snowpack will allow for a
cooling airmass to drop down into the single digits inland to teens
near the Lakes. A few spots across the Tug Hill may even drop below
zero Fahrenheit.
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1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:
Saturday night into Sunday, cooling will continue as winds shift
northwest between high over northern Plains and low pressure off New
England. H85 temps will drop steadily with readings centered around
-15c Sunday afternoon. Given the cold air aloft with increasing open
water off both lakes, expect widespread snow showers with lake
enhanced snow across higher terrain east of Lake Erie and for areas
southeast of Lake Ontario. Several inches of snow could result and
right now it is looking like we`ll need a late season winter weather
advisory for parts of the area. Eventually, expect the lake enhanced
snow to transition to diurnally driven snow showers in the afternoon
as the core of the coldest air aloft and associated steeper lapse
rates approaches the Lower Lakes.

Moving into Sunday night the cold cyclonic northwesterly flow will
continue across the Lower Lakes with scattered snow showers across
the region. Blended pops, including the NBM, looked way too low in
this type of setup given plenty of moisture across the lower Great
Lakes and sufficient over-water instability so adjusted these upward
as as result. It should be one of the coldest nights of this period
with lows found in the single digits east of Lake Ontario to teens
elsewhere by daybreak Monday as the flow across the lakes results in
at least some (relative) moderation.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The axis of a negative tilt, longwave trough will lie across the
eastern Great Lakes this period, pushing an airmass that is more
typical for January than late March across our region. Model 850 hPa
temperatures at 12Z Monday are near or even colder than the coldest
850 hPa temperature sampled by KBUF balloon radiosonde for the
date...or even the late March 850 hPa average minimum temperature.
Thus will expect mid-January type weather with lake effect snow down
wind of the lakes on a northwest wind quickly becoming cellular and
diminishing with the higher March sun angle through the day.
Temperatures will be cold, with highs only in the 20s. Monday night
a clearing sky and for some a fresh snowpack will allow for a
cooling airmass to drop down into the single digits inland to teens
near the Lakes. A few spots across the Tug Hill may even drop below
zero Fahrenheit.

Wow

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3 hours ago, Buckeyes_Suck said:

Could be a great opportunity for Chevy to offer him a replacement truck, or cover repairs, or something like that.  That video really was a legitimate advertisement for them. He said the right things to make you want to route for him (job interview, taking care of it). 
 

As an upstate NY vehicle owner, I can’t help but be jealous of the condition of his +/-20yr old truck.  Trucks of that era are now badly rusted out up here.  My 2015 pickup already has the blisters on the box side. I had it undercoated (oil style, not paint style) when I bought it in 2020, but it was too late for those notorious areas.

 

Photo of the truck in the article below:

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/north-texas-chevy-dealer-gifts-teen-caught-in-tornado-new-truck/2923922/?amp

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12 minutes ago, winter_rules said:

Could be a great opportunity for Chevy to offer him a replacement truck, or cover repairs, or something like that.  That video really was a legitimate advertisement for them. He said the right things to make you want to route for him (job interview, taking care of it). 
 

As an upstate NY vehicle owner, I can’t help but be jealous of the condition of his +/-20yr old truck.  Trucks of that era are now badly rusted out up here.  My 2015 pickup already has the blisters on the box side. I had it undercoated (oil style, not paint style) when I bought it in 2020, but it was too late for those notorious areas.

 

Photo of the truck in the article below:

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/north-texas-chevy-dealer-gifts-teen-caught-in-tornado-new-truck/2923922/?amp

The video says a north Texas Chevy dealer is giving him a brand new 2022 Silverado. I’m always a bit surprised when they say the average age of a vehicle in this country is something like 11 years. That means there’s a lot older than 11 years. Around here any vehicle more than 10 years old shows it’s age and I think there are more newer vehicles. 

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2 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

The video says a north Texas Chevy dealer is giving him a brand new 2022 Silverado. I’m always a bit surprised when they say the average age of a vehicle in this country is something like 11 years. That means there’s a lot older than 11 years. Around here any vehicle more than 10 years old shows it’s age and I think there are more newer vehicles. 

I’ll be driving my 2008 Honda in 2035 

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4 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Hondas last forever. I had 2 Civics, one got creamed by a truck with 117K and still had the original brakes. The other had 183K and could have reached 250K. 

Yeah I'm not a big car guy. As long as they run and no issues I try to keep them as long as possible. All cars are the same to me, point a to point b. I have zero interest in ever getting a Lambo. A bunch of my friends are really into cars, just doesn't do it for me. 

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15 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

Civic owner here

They are so much nicer now. My Civics were a 2002 and a 2007 and were pretty basic cars. I was driving 36,000 miles a year while I was working and wanted an inexpensive, reliable, good gas mileage car and the Civic checked all those boxes. 

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23 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

They are so much nicer now. My Civics were a 2002 and a 2007 and were pretty basic cars. I was driving 36,000 miles a year while I was working and wanted an inexpensive, reliable, good gas mileage car and the Civic checked all those boxes. 

Big fan of Toyota, Honda, Mazda, and Subaru. 

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