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Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?


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Looking at the patterns and it’s very obvious that we’ve flipped to a spring pattern. Lows jumping around. Retrograding and spinning up on themselves with multiple vortex centers. P-type is a guessing game mostly determined by elevation. Accumulations very unlikely in the valleys. 
I don’t see much hope of anything meaningful. Just crappy weather. Disappointing March to be sure. Back to a C+

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Yeah we have several spokes of energy rotating around the trough..The Ggem sends another one over S/W NY, GFS not so much lol The first"event" is looking to be more of a NW flow/wrap around regime..As it stands now we should see a light accumulation sat night through Sun morning...

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_20 (6).png

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_19 (6).png

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Definitely not impossible since Toronto normally sees 2-3" a year in April but winter storm chances in the GTA is normally over by April 1st. Not saying winter itself is over as GTA can easily wake up to a fresh inch of snow and temperatures in the 20s or even a mixed winter weather advisory event where its 2-4" and freezing rain (more rare) but big dog 6-12" winter storm warning amounts 99% of the time don't happen 

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

April 20th of last year

 

Yep, you guys for some reason get better April snow compared to GTA. My only guess is elevation for your side? I know over here KW-Orangeville-Barrie can see legit snow 6+ in April but they also have a lot of elevation compared to GTA. 

 

Edit*** Had to find the CTV new article. So the 2-3" snow. Though getting 4-8cm in mid-late April is impressive. 

Environment Canada has issued a weather advisory for Toronto and much of the GTA, warning that the city could see between 4 cm and 8 cm of snow, as well as slippery road conditions, between Tuesday night and Wednesday afternoon.

“Snow will move into the area this evening. Snowfall amounts of 4 to 8 cm are possible by noon on Wednesday, with lower snowfall amounts expected along the shores of Lake Ontario,”

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7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The OT drama is great, when I'm bored at work it gets me through the day. Its like a soap opera. :lol:

As I typed, it's like an angel on one shoulder and the devil on the other.

Buffalowx on one shoulder saying, "Don't do it! Stay away!" and Blue Moon on the other saying, "Type! type! You know you waaaaant to!"

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Kbuf 

Though cold air advection, a mild boundary layer should keep
precipitation that falls Thursday Night and Friday as plain rain,
and not until after an upper level low passes by will it become cold
enough aloft to support snow showers. These snow showers, Friday
Night across the higher terrain will become possible everywhere by
Saturday morning as temperatures at 850 hPa cool to -5 to -7C. As
these 850 hPa temperatures drop towards the negative teens Saturday
Night lake effect instability will begin to produce lake effect snow
downwind of the lakes on a northwest flow. With favorable moisture
within the snow DGZ, it is possible that several inches of snow will
accumulate SE of the Lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
There is very high confidence that we will be experiencing below
normal temperatures throughout this period...especially Sunday and
Monday when the mercury will average a solid 10 deg f below typical
late March values.

The reason for the cold weather will be phased negatively tilted
longwave trough that will be start the period over James Bay and
eastern Canada. As we move out of the weekend...there will be a
deamplification of the longwave pattern so that the coldest air will
eventually be shunted to the east. The cold northwest flow with H85
temps in the minus teens c will support at least scattered lake snow
showers with likely pops being introduced southeast of Lake Ontario.
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