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3/12 Event: Winters Last Hurrah at Least East of Mountains


Weather Will
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Didn’t think I’d see this for Westminster in mid March lol. 
 

Saturday
Rain and snow, possibly mixed with sleet, becoming all snow after noon. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 39. Breezy, with a northwest wind 14 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
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Didn’t think I’d see this for Westminster in mid March lol. 
 
Saturday Rain and snow, possibly mixed with sleet, becoming all snow after noon. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 39. Breezy, with a northwest wind 14 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Similar language even in the close burbs… man, if we can pull off a really fun windy storm, I’d have to boost my winter grade up a whole letter.

“Rain and snow, possibly mixed with sleet before noon, then snow, possibly mixed with sleet between noon and 3pm, then snow likely after 3pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 44. Breezy, with a northwest wind 13 to 18 mph increasing to 19 to 24 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.”
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06z HRRR smokes the region (4-8 for most)... WSW criteria even into the snow depth maps

13z SAT to 17z SAT is the money time period... at 15z SAT tries for 0.2" QPF at DCA in one hour lol

KDCA sounding at 12z SAT is heavy wet snow... QPF ends by around 19z.  06z HRRR shows around 0.6" QPF in the 6 hour time period between 12z and 18z for DCA

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13 minutes ago, yoda said:

06z HRRR smokes the region (4-8 for most)... WSW criteria even into the snow depth maps

13z SAT to 17z SAT is the money time period... at 15z SAT tries for 0.2" QPF at DCA in one hour lol

KDCA sounding at 12z SAT is heavy wet snow... QPF ends by around 19z.  06z HRRR shows around 0.6" QPF in the 6 hour time period between 12z and 18z for DCA

So basically a weenie run, lol

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

WSW and WWA's coming from LWX shortly

Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier-
Western Loudoun-
357 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.
  Northwest winds will gust around 45 to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central and northern Maryland as well as
  portions of northern Virginia.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 3 PM EST Saturday. Rain will change to snow
  between 5 and 7 AM early Saturday morning. The steadiest snow
  will be through midday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty winds could
  bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility may
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Morning AFD from LWX says WWA's may be coming soon for metros

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The upper-level trough and its associated strong cold front will
approach the Appalachians through this evening. The southern 
stream system will begin to phase with the northern stream system,
causing the trough to become more neutrally tilted while surface
low pressure develops and strengthens along the front. Much of
this evening may turn out dry, but rain will quickly
overspread late tonight into early Saturday morning in
response the cold front and its associated low pressure
approaching the area. 

The low will rapidly intensify as it passes through the area
Saturday morning along with the strong cold front. A strong
northwest wind will develop behind this system, bringing in much
colder air. Temperatures in the 40s and 50s ahead of the front
will fall rapidly into the 20s and 30s behind the front Saturday 
morning into Saturday afternoon (teens and single digits 
along the ridge tops). 

The potent upper-level trough will pass through the area behind the 
cold front Saturday afternoon/early evening. Given the strong
dynamics with the upper-level trough, this does cause an
anafrontal setup, where a period of precipitation is expected to
occur on the cold side of the boundary. Therefore, rain is
expected to end as a period of snow for most areas. Latest guidance 
has shifted slightly east with the track of the surface low, hence 
allowing the cold air to spill in quicker. With this scenario, 
confidence increases for accumulating snow across most locations 
Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. Confidence is still 
highest over the Mountains and west of Interstate 95, but having 
that been said there is increasing confidence for snow
accumulation along and east of Interstate 95 as well. 

Typically, it is difficult to get a rain changing to snow setup east 
of the mountains on a northwest flow in the low-levels, especially 
for this time of year. However, reasons for increasing confidence in 
this occurring are that there is Arctic air being drawn into this 
system behind the cold front. Also, there is stronger Fgen forcing 
in the 850-700mb layer behind the cold front, and there are coupling 
jet streaks in the upper-levels (right entrance of northern stream 
and left exit of southern stream). The strong dynamics suggest that 
a period of moderate to perhaps heavy precipitation will add to the 
cooling from a dynamical standpoint while the Artic air is rushing 
in.

For these reasons, we have issued a Winter Storm Warning in the 
Allegheny Highlands and northern VA Blue Ridge Mountains with 
advisories elsewhere late Friday night into Saturday. For locations 
farther east (the Washington/Baltimore Metro areas), they certainly 
may need to be added to the advisory. However, with a slightly later 
start time, thinking was to re-assess with the latest information 
later this morning or afternoon. 

For along/west of the Allegheny Front, there may be a break 
when the synoptic snow ends around midday Saturday, but 
additional snow showers are expected, and some may be heavy due 
to an unstable atmosphere, deep boundary layer that has 
moisture, and temps in the DGZ. Near blizzard conditions are 
possible. Confidence was too low for a Blizzard Warning at this 
time, since it may be more localized. 

Strong winds are expected behind the cold front Saturday
morning through at least Saturday evening. Strong cold
advection coupled with rapidly rising pressure behind the cold
front and a deep mixing layer suggests that 50 to 55 mph are
likely across much of the area during this time. Wind headlines 
will likely be needed during this time. Dangerously low wind chills 
around -10 to -20 degrees are possible along the ridges later 
Saturday afternoon/Saturday night. Elsewhere, wind chills near zero 
are most likely west of the Blue Ridge Mountains with single digits 
and teens elsewhere. 
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