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3/12 Significant Storm Likely (Rapidly Intensifying Coastal Storm with Heavy Rain/Wind Changing to possibly significant snow inland/some snow at the coast.


HVSnowLover
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12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

0z NAM looks like the RGEM now-not a good sign for the coast

We'll see what happens. Keep expectations low and maybe you'll be surprised.

The biggest question mark is when does the changeover occur. If it happens quickly then you'll get more, if it's delayed you get less. 

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9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We'll see what happens. Keep expectations low and maybe you'll be surprised.

The biggest question mark is when does the changeover occur. If it happens quickly then you'll get more, if it's delayed you get less. 

I’m expecting nothing frozen or practically nothing so it’s fine. If winter ended for me with the 2” on Wed that’s totally fine by me. That said, an hour or two for the cold air advance makes a huge difference. It’s cold air vs precip remaining race. 

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3 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

That's what my NWS is saying. 5-8. What are your thoughts for my area? At Canistear Reservoir in NE Sussex County NJ? Any chance of an upside, or will storm be moving to quick?

I would go with the NWS numbers.  The 0z models that I have seen so far are not really any higher than previous runs.

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9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rgem and Nam has not liked this event at all

0z RGEM was a little better though. The 0z run gives my area (just slightly west of NYC) close to 3 inches. Better than the 1 inch that the 18z run had. A little more snow for NYC too ... looks like 1 to 2 inches compared to barely an inch on the 18z run. At least it's slightly better.

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I like where I am for this one. Just south of the gwb a block from the Hudson. I have a feeling there is a hour or two period where it rips 1-2”/hr and that’s where we get 3”. This one is going to surprise allot people in this part of the city. March storms tend tI be very dynamic and banding more intense. At home on the island it’s a coating 

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Models do not diverge til 14Z or later so really won't be able to get a sense where this is going til then.  The RGEM may be a nose too slow at 04z over PA progressing the cold air E but its not a huge amount.  I still think the faster progression of colder air will verify...there could be a period of PLSN or RAPL perhaps near the city and the HRRR does show that 

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