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March 11th-13th Winter Weather Event. Winter's last gasp?


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1 hour ago, Math/Met said:

I think you are correct about this. It wasn’t downslope in my opinion (at least not in my area). Some models had a hint of a meso- low on this side of the mountains. It wasn’t much, but even a short lull can make a significant difference when rates are high.

I was watching for downslope traits, and didn't see them.  I was up late when it changed over, and that dry pocket came through.  There was seemingly a small bit of rotation to it.  Kind of cool and was kind of not!  LOL.  It almost looked like that slipped over the apps into NE TN and then headed for SW VA...and it keep moving which is why it didn't really seem like a downslope deal.  Very dynamic storm to pull something like that off!  Glad you got some snow over that way.  

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This is easily our best storm of the season in west Kingsport.  Probably between 4.5-5" of snow here at the house and a solid 5" of snow on the groomed surfaces of the golf course.  Sledding is good today.  I have almost enjoyed these snow bands as much as the storm itself.  Going to be COLD tonight!!!

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13 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Congrats man ! Storm played out pretty much as expected.

        Really blew away NWS Forecasted amounts as expected.

Yeah, I was skeptical of the 10 inch or more amounts being shown. Expected 5 or 6 maybe but it just kept pouring down hour after hour. 

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21 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

This is easily our best storm of the season in west Kingsport.  Probably between 4.5-5" of snow here at the house and a solid 5" of snow on the groomed surfaces of the golf course.  Sledding is good today.  I have almost enjoyed these snow bands as much as the storm itself.  Going to be COLD tonight!!!

I bet most of your snow will be gone by tomorrow evening.

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9 minutes ago, Snownado said:

I bet most of your snow will be gone by tomorrow evening.

Well, when we hit 63 on Monday...it is going to continue its journey along the water cycle after being in suspended animation today while on the ground.  Springs snows rarely last long due to the sun's angle.  Tonight, it should help lows get Into the low teens and/or single digits depending on location.  Easily the most wintery day of the year IMBY...and it is March.  Wind is howling, ice cycles are hanging from the house, snow squalls moving through, sun shining, and wind chills in the low teens.

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1 minute ago, RawCrabMeat said:

Cool image

 

looks like that sw/ne stripe in west tn missed out

Yeah, I kind of thought its as cool to see the western TN snow streak.  Some modeling just nailed that.  Honestly, that amazes me that computer modeling can do that.  

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2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, I kind of thought its as cool to see the western TN snow streak.  Some modeling just nailed that.  Honestly, that amazes me that computer modeling can do that.  

One of the best modeled systems days out, especially GFS imo

 

surprised it didn't overamp and head NW wth all that spring energy. Not the biggest snow ever, but just about ideal avoiding temp issues, energy transfers 

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42 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Congrats man ! Storm played out pretty much as expected.

        Really blew away NWS Forecasted amounts as expected.

By the time the offical totals are given MRX forcast will match perfectly.  Fudge tastes good.

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1 minute ago, RawCrabMeat said:

One of the best modeled systems days out, especially GFS imo

 

surprised it didn't overamp and head NW wth all that spring energy. Not the biggest snow ever, but just about ideal avoiding temp issues, energy transfers 

Gfs pretty much had it by tuesday . I'll never get over that feb 2015 100 mile north jump into Kentucky with that 12" system

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44 minutes ago, bearman said:

By the time the offical totals are given MRX forcast will match perfectly.  Fudge tastes good.

Lol. Yeah really. They definitely won't own it. Their 3-4" forecast for here was less than half of received. What gets me is, with Model trends, Radar and upstream reports it was obvious as of early last evening this would be a major Snow event.

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Yeah, I was skeptical of the 10 inch or more amounts being shown. Expected 5 or 6 maybe but it just kept pouring down hour after hour. 

Saw pictures from my wife’s friends who live on Fox Hunter Ridge in Maynardville showing just under 12”. Which I was skeptical of but that ridge is 2200’ and in town there’s several reports of 8”.


.
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Just now, PowellVolz said:

I really like David Aldrich and think he’s a good Met. He has several times in the past rolled with a forecast everyone else was afraid to do. That being said, this is tacky IMO.





.

David is the goat 

 

did you mean to post a link? 

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I think this is still relevant to the storm thread.  Temps and wind chills tonight are going to be maybe the coldest of the season or close to it.  From MRX

Discussion:

Will likely see some snow showers lingering into the evening
hours over the TN mountains and also northeast TN and southwest
VA. Still have winter headlines out for these areas, but all of
them expire at 00z. This seems reasonable for northern areas but
may be perhaps a couple of hours too long in the south. At this
point in the event though, this is splitting hairs though as no
further significant snow accumulations are expected in any of
these areas.

Otherwise, temperatures will be the big story for the remainder of
the short term. Trended overnight lows towards a mix of the GFS and
Canadian with a little NBM 25th percentile mixed in. Given the snow
pack across the valley, and the expected light winds late tonight as
high pressure builds into the region, it seems more than plausible
that some single digit lows will be seen tonight. One factor that
could wind up making this a mistake is that winds will remain
elevated through the evening and perhaps first part of the overnight
hours. But guidance indicates high pressure will build in from the
southwest after midnight tonight which will force winds to become
light in the valley and should allow temperatures to plummet.
Related to overnight lows, wind chill values will be very low at
higher elevations beginning this afteroon and lasting through the
overnight hours. A few locations above 3,000 ft have already seen
wind chills near zero this afternoon, but beginning around 22z we
should see these locations begin to see wind chills dipping to
between -5 and -15 degrees. Will go ahead with a wind chill advisory
to account for this.

Low level flow turns around out of the south tomorrow, resulting in
highs climbing into the mid 40s to low 50s and alleviating any
remaining hazardous road conditions and melting any snow left.
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