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Potential large EC storm/Heavy LES March 11-13th


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5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

 

He is THE most conservative meteorologist around here. Almost always below everybody else and forecast guidance. But, my guess is he was going with 12z runs for that and thus, his forecast would make sense.

He was banking on that the colder air would take longer to get into the area. 

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1 minute ago, PerintonMan said:

I know this is a SYR-focused forecast, but 1-3" for the Thruway corridor from basically Del Lago on west is much lower than anyone else.

I was surprised at how conservative his forecast is. I wonder sometimes if politics has any influence. Saturday is the big St. Patrick’s parade in Syracuse and I wonder if he’s keeping amounts down for now so not to scare people away. If he needs to increase them tomorrow he can. 

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16 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

NAM seems to have gone rogue with the Far East solution…my thoughts are the overrunning event Friday night had more juice than previously modeled 

agreed,  looks like our best chance is actually 6pm Friday - 6am Saturday.  p type and how fast until it can start to accumulate will be the key.  

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7 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

agreed,  looks like our best chance is actually 6pm Friday - 6am Saturday.  p type and how fast until it can start to accumulate will be the key.  

I think with ratios, especially Friday night-early Saturday is when we’ll see our best accumulation. 

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5 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

Alright, I'm pushing off for Vermont at 4am tomorrow morning/tonight.  Still riding the hairy edge of that rain snow line, but that's typically where you want to be.  I'm hoping some elevation also helps out.  Good luck to everyone with what will likely be the last "big one" of this winter.

You going to the storm conference in Burlington?

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