Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Potential large EC storm/Heavy LES March 11-13th


Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Nbm

1267224992_nbm-conus-nystate-total_snow_10to1-7172800(2).thumb.png.9d21a8f82c142dc807f9fcc3afa542b6.png

Dice roll situation for me in Sullivan basically, and at my relatively lower elevation. I’d like one last 6” to top off what’s otherwise been a mediocre winter. Remarkable, though, that I held a consistent pack for over 30 days after the MLK storm. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

As MJO stated, we don’t have blocking, is that why it wants to slide away? At least NAM is the only disaster thus far. 

With blocking , this would go further south and east but the euro and Nam has multiple lows riding the trough while the gfs and rgem dont.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, PerintonMan said:

Gradient should be much sharper. Syracuse area could very well get 8-12", but in that case BUF-ROC is not going to be 4-8".

My guess:

SYR - 10"

ROC - 3"

BUF - 2"

I’m siding with BW on this event. GFS has 4” at KBUF at 10-1. I expect a touch drier as we will be colder faster as the overrunning precip is in place. 4-6” is a good call. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

With blocking , this would go further south and east but the euro and Nam has multiple lows riding the trough while the gfs and rgem dont.

Blocking isn't the only thing that makes a storm go further NW. Phasing and cyclogenesis also does that. We saw that a few days ago with the GFS "bombing" out a storm over NE New York. The last few days have featured later phasing which has resulted in a further SE track. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Blocking isn't the only thing that makes a storm go further NW. Phasing and cyclogenesis also does that. We saw that a few days ago with the GFS "bombing" out a storm over NE New York. 

I never said blocking makes this go further north and west. With no blocking , storms have a chance to trend more north and west but there are also other factors. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...