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2022 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion


Chicago Storm
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STWatch issued till 3am CDT/4am EDT -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0432.html

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 432
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   805 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Northeast Iowa
     Northern Illinois
     Northwest Indiana
     Southern Wisconsin
     Lake Michigan

   * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 805 PM
     until 300 AM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Severe storms including supercells will continue to
   develop this evening from northeast Iowa into southern Wisconsin and
   far northern Illinois, and eventually northwest Indiana/southern
   Lake Michigan. Storms may merge into a linear
   east/southeastward-moving cluster by late evening, with increasing
   potential for damaging winds and possibly an embedded brief tornado
   risk.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
   statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles northwest of
   Dubuque IA to 50 miles southeast of Racine WI. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.
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Not sure if this stuff to the north will build down this way.  I look at the radar and think it will, and then I look again and think it won't.  Probably gonna be a close call either way.  Radar has a 6/13 vibe with current position of storms and movement.

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45 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Not sure if this stuff to the north will build down this way.  I look at the radar and think it will, and then I look again and think it won't.  Probably gonna be a close call either way.  Radar has a 6/13 vibe with current position of storms and movement.

Some newer development ensures that it will make it in here.

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Hopefully the SPC upgrades portions of SD/MN/NE/IA to a moderate risk. Looks like a textbook long-track MCS/derecho setup.

An MCS currently in SD, which originated in far W MT yesterday evening, has matured and is tied to a nice wave topping the ridge over the Central US. Should see that complex ride the instability gradient ESE through the afternoon/evening, acorss portions of SD/NE/MN/IA. How far east it makes it will be dependent on other developing convection through the day ahead of it, near a frontal boundary in place.

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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

Hopefully the SPC upgrades portions of SD/MN/NE/IA to a moderate risk. Looks like a textbook long-track MCS/derecho setup.

An MCS currently in SD, which originated in far W MT yesterday evening, has matured and is tied to a nice wave topping the ridge over the Central US. Should see that complex ride the instability gradient ESE through the afternoon/evening, acorss portions of SD/NE/MN/IA. How far east it makes it will be dependent on other developing convection through the day ahead of it, near a frontal boundary in place.

They just did on the 1630z OTLK and large 30 wind hatched with 45 wind as well

spccoday1.wind.latest.png?v=143

 

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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1129 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

   Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
   DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND NORTHWEST IOWA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A derecho with embedded significant severe wind gusts appears
   probable from central to eastern South Dakota into southwest
   Minnesota and northern Iowa into this evening.

   ...SD to IA and southern MN...
   An intense cluster over central SD will likely persist
   east-southeast across southeast SD. This should evolve into a
   forward-propagating linear MCS, expanding in latitudinal extent as
   MLCIN further diminishes ahead of it. A large MLCAPE reservoir in
   excess of 3000 J/kg across southern SD/MN and northern IA will
   support potential for embedded significant severe wind gusts
   exceeding 75 kts. While the majority of CAM guidance appears to be
   egregiously poor (especially the HRW-FV3) with handling the
   conceptual model for this event, the 12Z HRW-ARW and NSSL are in the
   ballpark and suggest bowing linear segments will be maintained into
   southern MN and northern IA before weakening this evening.
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Jesus

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1203 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022

SDC045-049-059-069-107-119-051730-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0194.000000T0000Z-220705T1730Z/
Edmunds SD-Hand SD-Sully SD-Hyde SD-Faulk SD-Potter SD-
1203 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN EDMUNDS...NORTHWESTERN HAND...NORTHEASTERN SULLY...
NORTHERN HYDE...FAULK AND EASTERN POTTER COUNTIES...

At 1203 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Brentwood Colony to 11 miles north of Holabird,
moving east at 40 mph.

THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR NORTHERN HYDE COUNTY.

HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts and tennis ball size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses
         will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect
         extensive tree damage and power outages.

These severe storms will be near...
  Brentwood Colony around 1210 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these severe thunderstorms include
Norbeck, Blumengard Colony and Faulkton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind
speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are
especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be
overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the
lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause
serious injury and significant property damage.

&&

LAT...LON 4469 9983 4530 9961 4529 9889 4451 9932
TIME...MOT...LOC 1703Z 280DEG 34KT 4517 9936 4469 9956

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN
WIND THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX WIND GUST...90 MPH
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Got a feeling this bow echo has some surprises in store. Our mets this morning weren't very enthusiastic on the severe potential for our area (in line with SPC). However most models seem to have the instability gradient right across southern Wisconsin.

Had an enjoyable little chase yesterday, following the lead cell from near Orfordville to near Beloit. Showed some supercell characteristics visually and on radar. Didn't realize "Ryan Hall, Y'all" had chasers active in WI, but I guess I shouldn't be surprised. DSLR pics later.

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Mitchell SD had max wind gust 65 kt (74.7 mph)

Quote

METAR: KMHE 051953Z AUTO 36041G65KT 3SM TSRA BR 21/19 A2986 RMK AO2 PK WND 01065/1952 WSHFT 1934 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB10B33 TSB02 SLP106 P0090 T02060189 $

possible tornado at Salem SD

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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0438.html

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 438
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   350 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Western and central Iowa
     Southwest to south-central Minnesota
     Eastern Nebraska

   * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until
     1000 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
       mph likely
     Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Long-lived bowing MCS across southeast South Dakota will
   spread east-southeast across parts of eastern Nebraska, western and
   central Iowa and far southern Minnesota with severe wind gusts.
   Additional cells ahead of it will pose a threat for hail and wind.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90
   statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west of
   Denison IA to 40 miles southeast of Mason City IA. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
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  • Chicago Storm changed the title to 2022 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion

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