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2022 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion


Chicago Storm
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6 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

House across the tree from mine got smashed by a tree, damage is widespread in the rural parts of Hillsdale County 

Luckily the persistent layer of low clouds limited the gust potential some in my area.  It certainly rained hard here though and there were some ground-shaking lightning strikes.

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15 hours ago, frostfern said:

It didn't seem anywhere close to severe IMBY, but apparently the GRR ASOS measured a 58 mph gust.  It looks like the clearing line was pretty much right at KGRR when the storms rolled in.  Murky all day here with a temperature stuck around 78-82, but there was more filtered sun and temps into the middle 80s just a little south.

Had 56MPH gust a my house.  Missed out on most of the lightning other mentioned though.

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8 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

With that line continuing on from Illinois to New York does it technically obtain a derecho classification? It had two extreme wind reports and meets the 250 mile requirement

The "requirements" are sort of fluid these days, so you probably could say it was one in some terms.

As for that NY activity, that was separate from the main MCS across IL/MI/IN/OH/ON.

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On 8/30/2022 at 5:52 PM, Chicago Storm said:

The "requirements" are sort of fluid these days, so you probably could say it was one in some terms.

As for that NY activity, that was separate from the main MCS across IL/MI/IN/OH/ON.

It’s worth the debate. That line cooked for a long time and even caused a fatality around Toledo

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On 8/30/2022 at 8:20 AM, WestMichigan said:

Had 56MPH gust a my house.  Missed out on most of the lightning other mentioned though.

The lightning wasn't super cooperative.  A lot of anvil crawlers and occasional big ground-shaking +cg thunderclap on the back side, but low clouds were in the way most of the time.  I still haven't exactly figured out what parameters you need to get really dense cg+ strikes.  It's usually slightly sub-severe storms that are the loudest though.

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On 9/2/2022 at 2:42 AM, frostfern said:

The lightning wasn't super cooperative.  A lot of anvil crawlers and occasional big ground-shaking +cg thunderclap on the back side, but low clouds were in the way most of the time.  I still haven't exactly figured out what parameters you need to get really dense cg+ strikes.  It's usually slightly sub-severe storms that are the loudest though.

High dewpoint depression, especially at the surface, helps.

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On 9/3/2022 at 9:35 AM, Powerball said:

High dewpoint depression, especially at the surface, helps.

From my reading that effects polarity more than density.  Higher bases with shallower warm cloud depth favors positive polarity, which usually means lower strike density overall (all other things being equal, positive strikes drain much more charge per flash, and are thus less frequent).  In this case the LCL was ground-hugging in my area (probably 500m or less), so that would seem to favor very deep warm cloud layer and negative polarity.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Big 5% tor over central IL now on 1730Z...written by Goss although first SWODY2 was Broyles.

12Z HRRR and 3KM NAM are worlds apart on timing and location of CI tomorrow afternoon/evening, so no help there as usual. :rolleyes:

That HRRR run also has southeastward-moving discrete supercells in west-central IL late into the night Sunday-Monday.

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22 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Honestly, if it was April through July or even August I'd be all over this. September Sundays are for watching football with a beer. Haven't even looked at a satellite loop (that wasn't of Fiona) today.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk


 

just cracked a leinies oktoberfest....thinking it'll be straight whiskey in a few hours once bears/pack kick off. I'm good with a miss south. Prefer to suffer through my azz whippings with the power on.

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  • Chicago Storm changed the title to 2022 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion

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