Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
 Share

Recommended Posts

Just now, losetoa6 said:

It's winter . That's a big part of the fun on a weather forum.:D

I see no harm at all. Everybody knows there own climo and adjusts accordingly as well as for timing and precip rates . 

I wasn't talking to you. Snow maps are useless. I never said yall couldn't track it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

I wasn't talking to you. Snow maps are useless. I never said yall couldn't track it. 

Yeah...plus it's the NAM way out in range!  Perhaps northern and western areas could possibly get more than snow TV.  But even if I lived there, I'm not so sure I'd be overly excited about it (barring some significant change in the next day or so).  Still, it will be quite a change from near 80 degrees today!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

It's winter . That's a big part of the fun on a weather forum.:D

I see no harm at all. Everybody knows there own climo and adjusts accordingly as well as for timing and precip rates . 

Uh...I'd bet my next paycheck that everybody DOESN'T do this, and instead consciously or subconsciously get excited over a Day 7 snowmap. That be the problem, imo. I wish snowmaps didn't exist beyond 48 hours...MAYBE 72 hours at the most.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Make that 12-24 hours for the NAM!! :lol:

Lol Ya know I'd willing to concede 48 hours for the NAM...since the proverbial "wheelhouse" starts there--as it can occasionally pick up a trend the globals may be slower to recognize (but someone can correct me I'm wrong about that).

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

That cold shot this weekend for you guys is going to be no joke. One of the better airmasses of the season for the OH and TN Valley areas. Considering the time of year, it's definitely pretty robust 

Based on H5 heights it looks robust, but 2m temps seem low-mid 20s. Do you think that’s under done?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

That cold shot this weekend for you guys is going to be no joke. One of the better airmasses of the season for the OH and TN Valley areas. Considering the time of year, it's definitely pretty robust 

No doubt!  Regardless of any snow chance, that's going to be quite a change when the front goes through.  Ahhh, March!!  Makes me think of an event in late March 1987 in northeast Ohio.  It was like 75 degrees that last weekend.  The next day they got 16" snow!!  Perfect timing of a very strong front with a nice wave that propagated along it.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Based on H5 heights it looks robust, but 2m temps seem low-mid 20s. Do you think that’s under done?

Probably a bit underdone I would think. Height falls are solid and the thicknesses are ~510dm, which is a good airmass for at least teens in the AM and low 30s for the PM. This time of year you have a bit more variance in temps due to increased sun angle, but it shouldn't make too significant of a difference in the grand scheme. MEX for FDK is 21 on Sunday AM, so I think a few degrees cooler into the teens would be suitable. Highs around 35-38 for Central MD. Considering the flow veering to the E/SE, that could happen. Progressive pattern

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

While Im highly skeptical of a backend snow situation over the weekend, the EURO is now the most aggressive model in showing this....even if it didnt snow, any merit to maybe some sort of patchy ice build up for some locations with rapidly dropping temps Saturday?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

While Im highly skeptical of a backend snow situation over the weekend, the EURO is now the most aggressive model in showing this....even if it didnt snow, any merit to maybe some sort of patchy ice build up for some locations with rapidly dropping temps Saturday?

Yeah the backend snow thing is...well, iffy.  Unless you get something that develops on the end of the front and moves by (kind of how the GFS was showing the other day?).  It has happened before...even in March.  In particular off the top of my head, early March 2014 and 2015.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yeah the backend snow thing is...well, iffy.  Unless you get something that develops on the end of the front and moves by (kind of how the GFS was showing the other day?).  It has happened before...even in March.  In particular off the top of my head, early March 2014 and 2015.

Yeah apparently the EURO and GFS have now flipped..Euro shows a decent backend snow scenario while GFS has backed off...Like I said, Im skeptical of the snow scenario itself but it does look like this has potential to be a powerful front and some pretty quick temp drops.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

While Im highly skeptical of a backend snow situation over the weekend, the EURO is now the most aggressive model in showing this....even if it didnt snow, any merit to maybe some sort of patchy ice build up for some locations with rapidly dropping temps Saturday?

As we know, back end snow is iffy and usually a fail! Additionally, flash freezes are rare! You get a burst of snow, followed by cold, and the sun has set I could see it possibly happening. I have seen that before, but I know flash freezes are rare for us, challenging to predict, and far less likely this time of year. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

As we know, back end snow is iffy and usually a fail! Additionally, flash freezes are rare! You get a burst of snow, followed by cold, and the sun has set I could see it possibly happening. I have seen that before, but I know flash freezes are rare for us, challenging to predict, and far less likely this time of year. 

Yeah not really saying a flash freeze happens per say but I could see a scenario where north and west of the beltways maybe get some patchy ice formation.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...