March 2022

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, weathermedic said:

Date on the bottom one is from Nov 13, 2021

Yeah, that was our last out of season hailstorm like today. So now we have a significant March hailstorm following one in November. Parts of CT had enough hail accumulation to cause spin outs.
 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

An Arctic air mass is poised to invade the region. The frigid air will begin to move into the region tomorrow. Parts of the area could see some snow showers or even a snow squall that could briefly whiten the ground.

Monday and Tuesday will see low temperatures fall well into the 20s in New York City and Philadelphia with teens in some areas outside the cities.

The mean last dates for readings below 30° are:

New York City: March 22 (1981-10: March 24)
Philadelphia: March 22 (1981-10: March 25)

Last year, both cities saw the temperature fall into the 20s for their last time on April 2.

In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, as occurred this year, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal.

Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31:

Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2°
New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2°
Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3°

Actual data coupled with modeling for the rest of March show that all three cities will wind up with a colder than normal March 22-31 period.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March.

The SOI was +5.79 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.113 today.

On March 24 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.098 (RMM). The March 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.218 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.5° (2.7° above normal).

 

[SnoSki14]

Monday's cold is ridiculous for this time of year. Barely above freezing with gusty winds under sunny skies too.

I'm sure the strong late March sun will help some but it's still going to feel cold. Also wouldn't be surprised to see lows below 20F in many suburbs. 

[JerseyWx]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Monday's cold is ridiculous for this time of year. Barely above freezing with gusty winds under sunny skies too.

I'm sure the strong late March sun will help some but it's still going to feel cold. Also wouldn't be surprised to see lows below 20F in many suburbs. 

Yeah my forecast high is only the upper 20's.  With the wind it will easily feel like January.  The thing that really makes it worse was having that little stretch of 70+ readings not too long ago.  

[the_other_guy]

Just shut off the outdoor water again.

That’s a first

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Models aren’t as cold as the 1982 coldest temperatures in early April.  But JFK could beat the late March 1959 records. The late March and early April Arctic outbreak in 1982 had a low of 20° at JFK and and low max of 30°.

JFK record lows

3/28	22 in 1982	24 in 1966	25 in 1975+
3/29	26 in 1959	27 in 2015	27 in 1974+
3/30	22 in 1970	27 in 2008	28 in 1964
3/31	21 in 1964	25 in 1965	27 in 1950
4/1	26 in 1969	26 in 1964	27 in 1965
4/2	27 in 1964	29 in 2021	31 in 2019
4/3	25 in 1954	29 in 2008	31 in 2021+
4/4	24 in 1954	29 in 1995	29 in 1975
4/5	24 in 1995	26 in 2016	28 in 1975+
4/6	20 in 1982	27 in 2016	29 in 1995
4/7	20 in 1982	27 in 1950	28 in 2002
4/8	26 in 1982	28 in 1972	30 in 1977

JFK record low maxes

3/28	37 in 1959	39 in 1966	40 in 1996
3/29	35 in 1974	36 in 1984	39 in 1965+
3/30	35 in 1970	40 in 1990	40 in 1965+
3/31	37 in 1970	37 in 1969	37 in 1964
4/1	42 in 1961	43 in 2003	43 in 2001+
4/2	38 in 2021	40 in 1993	42 in 2018
4/3	40 in 1978	42 in 2018	44 in 1969
4/4	38 in 1975	39 in 1954	42 in 1957
4/5	40 in 1995	42 in 1975	42 in 1954
4/6	41 in 1982	43 in 2007	43 in 1971
4/7	30 in 1982	37 in 2003	39 in 1967
4/8	39 in 2003	39 in 1956	43 in 2007+

 

wow is the record low max of 30 in 1982 the latest it's ever been below freezing the whole day at JFK?

[gravitylover]

See I told ya it was gonna happen. I swapped out the winter wheels on the car last week in a kind of psych out move. Apparently it worked. You're all welcome.

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Models aren’t as cold as the 1982 coldest temperatures in early April.  But JFK could beat the late March 1959 records. The late March and early April Arctic outbreak in 1982 had a low of 20° at JFK and and low max of 30°.

JFK record lows

3/28	22 in 1982	24 in 1966	25 in 1975+
3/29	26 in 1959	27 in 2015	27 in 1974+
3/30	22 in 1970	27 in 2008	28 in 1964
3/31	21 in 1964	25 in 1965	27 in 1950
4/1	26 in 1969	26 in 1964	27 in 1965
4/2	27 in 1964	29 in 2021	31 in 2019
4/3	25 in 1954	29 in 2008	31 in 2021+
4/4	24 in 1954	29 in 1995	29 in 1975
4/5	24 in 1995	26 in 2016	28 in 1975+
4/6	20 in 1982	27 in 2016	29 in 1995
4/7	20 in 1982	27 in 1950	28 in 2002
4/8	26 in 1982	28 in 1972	30 in 1977

JFK record low maxes

3/28	37 in 1959	39 in 1966	40 in 1996
3/29	35 in 1974	36 in 1984	39 in 1965+
3/30	35 in 1970	40 in 1990	40 in 1965+
3/31	37 in 1970	37 in 1969	37 in 1964
4/1	42 in 1961	43 in 2003	43 in 2001+
4/2	38 in 2021	40 in 1993	42 in 2018
4/3	40 in 1978	42 in 2018	44 in 1969
4/4	38 in 1975	39 in 1954	42 in 1957
4/5	40 in 1995	42 in 1975	42 in 1954
4/6	41 in 1982	43 in 2007	43 in 1971
4/7	30 in 1982	37 in 2003	39 in 1967
4/8	39 in 2003	39 in 1956	43 in 2007+

 

wow the April cold outbreak in 1995 lasted for 3 days?  I remember the 2 day outbreak in 2016 too, that was when we had a snow event occurring to our east.  The 1982 outbreak outclasses everything else though.

Here is a history of significant April snow events written after the April 2018 snowstorm (were there no cold temp records set with that one?)  It also mentions the 5 times it snowed in May (not the May 2019 snow since this article was written before that occurred.)

https://www.amny.com/news/april-snow-in-nyc-7-biggest-storms-1-10181411/

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I can promise that’s not east Hampton. Look to the right in the picture, there is no exposed granite anywhere on Long Island. Not sure how no one else picked up on that

lol I had to reread it and see that it's in CT.  Why do other states steal our names and use them?  First it was Albany and now it's East Hampton wth?

https://secretnyc.co/nyc-metro-theater-reopen/

Also, I dont remember this but apparently it snowed in NYC on April 23rd, 2020?

It says that's the latest it has snowed in April but neglects to inform that it actually snowed in May in 2019 lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

and here is the snow in May

https://www.silive.com/weather/2020/05/snow-in-may-brief-snowfall-in-central-park-for-the-first-time-since-1977.html

May 9, 2020

 

 

[LoboLeader1]

38 here under clear skies. Reached a high of 48 yesterday, along with showers. Temps to range in the low mid 40's today.

[uncle W]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow the April cold outbreak in 1995 lasted for 3 days?  I remember the 2 day outbreak in 2016 too, that was when we had a snow event occurring to our east.  The 1982 outbreak outclasses everything else though.

Here is a history of significant April snow events written after the April 2018 snowstorm (were there no cold temp records set with that one?)  It also mentions the 5 times it snowed in May (not the May 2019 snow since this article was written before that occurred.)

https://www.amny.com/news/april-snow-in-nyc-7-biggest-storms-1-10181411/

 

the first two weeks in April 1975 were cold almost every morning...it had more days below 32 since 1950...

[uncle W]

I remember the March 27th-28th 1959 snow/sleet and cold wave...Easter was March 29th that year and easter morning had a little snow on the ground...in a winter that had only 13" of snow it snowed an inch that time and 59 also had snow in April...It was an evening event around April 12th...it snow almost an inch also...

[bluewave]

This will be an unprecedented Arctic outbreak following 4 days reaching 70° at Newark by March 27th. The previous record was a low of 26° set recently in 2016. Model forecasts have temperatures dropping to  the low 20s at Newark. This early warm up allowed many trees to bloom several weeks ahead of schedule. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Mar 27	Lowest Temperature after Mar 27
1	2012-03-27	8	38
2	1946-03-27	6	32
-	1945-03-27	6	33
3	2020-03-27	5	32
4	2022-03-27	4	?
-	2016-03-27	4	26
-	1990-03-27	4	28
-	1987-03-27	4	31

 

 

[CIK62]

The last 5 days of March are averaging  38degs.(30/45) or -8.

Month to date is  46.7[+4.6].      March should end at  45.3[+2.6].

Reached 53 here yesterday.

Today:   45-48 early, then falling---to 22 by tomorrow AM, wind w. to nw. and breezy, variable clouds, a snow flurry by sunset.

First 10 days of April>>>42/57 or about 49 = Normal.

40*(60%RH) here at 7am.       47* at 2pm.        38* at 6:30pm, snow shower passing western tip of CI.      34* at 10pm.

[nyrangers1022]

13 hours ago, MJO812 said:

HRRR has snow showers Monday

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly cloudy and breezy. A snow shower or even squall is possible in parts of the region during the afternoon or evening as an Arctic front moves through. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 40s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 47°

Newark: 48°

Philadelphia: 48°

It will turn much colder tonight and temperatures will rise no higher than the lower or middle 30s tomorrow.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 53.7°; 15-Year: 54.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 54.6°; 15-Year: 55.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 56.8°; 15-Year: 57.5°

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This will be an unprecedented Arctic outbreak following 4 days reaching 70° at Newark by March 27th. The previous record was a low of 26° set recently in 2016. Model forecasts have temperatures dropping to  the low 20s at Newark. This early warm up allowed many trees to bloom several weeks ahead of schedule. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Mar 27	Lowest Temperature after Mar 27
1	2012-03-27	8	38
2	1946-03-27	6	32
-	1945-03-27	6	33
3	2020-03-27	5	32
4	2022-03-27	4	?
-	2016-03-27	4	26
-	1990-03-27	4	28
-	1987-03-27	4	31

 

 

Unfortunately the magnolia flowers are toast. Some hardier early bulbs like daffodils can handle cold better. But tree based flowers will just burn and fall off. 
We have managed impressive Arctic outbreaks in both very early and very late season the last few years but mid winter has been more difficult.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

the first two weeks in April 1975 were cold almost every morning...it had more days below 32 since 1950...

wow didn't we get a snowstorm that April?

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

I remember the March 27th-28th 1959 snow/sleet and cold wave...Easter was March 29th that year and easter morning had a little snow on the ground...in a winter that had only 13" of snow it snowed an inch that time and 59 also had snow in April...It was an evening event around April 12th...it snow almost an inch also...

a 1" snowfall event in April occurs with about 1/3 frequency, a 4" event in April about 1/10.

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Unfortunately the magnolia flowers are toast. Some hardier early bulbs like daffodils can handle cold better. But tree based flowers will just burn and fall off. 
We have managed impressive Arctic outbreaks in both very early and very late season the last few years but mid winter has been more difficult.

One part of our warming climate is that the highest temperature is rising rapidly from Feb 21 to March 20. But the coldest temperature from Mar 21 to Apr 20 has been slowly declining since 1991. So this allows earlier spring blooms to be followed by hard freezes. Probably is related to all this spring blocking following early starts to spring.

 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

51 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Unfortunately the magnolia flowers are toast. Some hardier early bulbs like daffodils can handle cold better. But tree based flowers will just burn and fall off. 
We have managed impressive Arctic outbreaks in both very early and very late season the last few years but mid winter has been more difficult.

Multiple nights of low 20s, highs on Monday barely above freezing. 

Will definitely crush the early blooms. 

[WarrenCtyWx]

Decent chance of a sub freezing high in the city tomorrow?

[Tatamy]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly cloudy and breezy. A snow shower or even squall is possible in parts of the region during the afternoon or evening as an Arctic front moves through. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 40s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 47°

Newark: 48°

Philadelphia: 48°

It will turn much colder tonight and temperatures will rise no higher than the lower or middle 30s tomorrow.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 53.7°; 15-Year: 54.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 54.6°; 15-Year: 55.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 56.8°; 15-Year: 57.5°

There is a snow squall about 30 miles west of Allentown currently.  Visibility of about 1/2 mile associated with this feature as it moves east.  There is also a nasty snow squall along I84 to the east of Scranton.  If you are up in NW NJ or Orange Cty keep an eye out for this one.  Visibility of less than 1/4 mile associated with it.

[sussexcountyobs]

Very light snow starting to fall here. Breezy. 37°

[snowman19]

Seeing obs of snow at High Point State Park in Sussex County, NJ 

[sussexcountyobs]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Seeing obs of snow at High Point State Park in Sussex County, NJ 

Snowing pretty good right now here. Windy also.

[wdrag]

Briefly 3/4MI in snow at at 240P. down to 34F, from a high of 40.1.  Looking for measurable snow this evening there between 6-11PM as a cold front of sorts shifts southeastward through our area with large moist low lvl lapse rates stabilizing a bit as the influx of cold air overnight.  FOUS has it nice with the LI stabilizing toward 06z, BL wind increasing and the large low lvl lapse rate drying out a bit toward 06z.  BGM radar seems to be showing a nice band progressing southeast, passing through ITHica and Cortland NY now. wd/247P-27

[sussexcountyobs]

Moderate snow falling right now. 32° Starting to stick to car tops.

[snowman19]

Occasional snow showers and 42 in Sloatsburg