bluewave Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The Atlantic is definitely starting to take on a -AMO look….wonder if this is the beginning of another long term -AMO cycle. If so, we may be seeing a lot more +NAO in the years to come, a la the 1980’s…. It’s a new hybrid AMO pattern that we have seen since the super El Niño in 15-16. Record SSTs off the East Coast with a cold pool near Greenland. The 1995-2015 +AMO featured warm SSTs across the whole Atlantic Basin. The 1970s to early 1990s -AMO had cold departures across the entire Atlantic Basin. Current hybrid AMO with record SSTs off East Coast since 2016 1995 to 2015 +AMO 1974 to 1994 -AMO pattern 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 3 hours ago, bluewave said: If we can drop below 25° like the models are indicating, then the chances go up for highs staying in the 30s. NYC only made it to 39° last April 2nd. Newark had a record low max of 40° with a record low of 28°. But it’s easier for Newark to set record lows since it isn’t competing with the late 1800s like Central Park. NYC 4/2 35 in 1911 36 in 1899 39 in 2021+ EWR 4/2 28 in 2021 28 in 1964 30 in 1954 4/2 40 in 2021 43 in 1993 43 in 1965+ do you remember the cold shot in April 1995? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 52 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Sadly, yes. I have a bad feeling we are going to see a Bermuda High on roids from May - September wet means not as hot which sucks....I want the high near NC not up in NE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Agree-more of a hybrid AMO....it looked like we were flipping negative a couple of years recenlty only to see the warmer NW Atlantic waters return.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s a new hybrid AMO pattern that we have seen since the super El Niño in 15-16. Record SSTs off the East Coast with a cold pool near Greenland. The 1995-2015 +AMO featured warm SSTs across the whole Atlantic Basin. The 1970s to early 1990s -AMO had cold departures across the entire Atlantic Basin. Current hybrid AMO with record SSTs off East Coast since 2016 1995 to 2015 +AMO 1974 to 1994 -AMO pattern Chris what's causing the cold pool near Greenland, isn't Greenland rapidly warming up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Just now, LibertyBell said: Chris what's causing the cold pool near Greenland, isn't Greenland rapidly warming up? melting ice most likely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Just now, Brian5671 said: Agree-more of a hybrid AMO....it looked like we were flipping negative a couple of years recenlty only to see the warmer NW Atlantic waters return.... we won't get the 70s-80s pattern anymore because of how much the climate has changed since then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Just now, LibertyBell said: we won't get the 70s-80s pattern anymore because of how much the climate has changed since then I tend to agree....the globe has warmed significantly from the end of the last -AMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: melting ice most likely I was thinking that melting ice might be draining into the Atlantic and climate change also means we probably won't get the 70s-80s pattern again because of warmer water around here and further offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gpsnavigator Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Our customary low humidity days of March and April are here. Humidity down in the teens. Love it! Too bad it won't stay like this all week. As a side effect though, we already have special weather statements in the form of fire advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 49 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Chris what's causing the cold pool near Greenland, isn't Greenland rapidly warming up? Ice cold run off from Greenland's ice sheets. this could play an important role in destabilizing the climate of Europe by affecting the Gulf Stream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 NYC's coldest temperatures after 3/22 since 1950... 18...3/25/1956 20...3/26/1974 20...3/26/1960 21...4/07/1982 21...4/06/1982 21...3/25/1960 21...3/24/2014 22...3/31/1964 22...3/30/1970 22...3/28/1982 22...3/27/2014 23...4/05/1995 23...4/04/1954 23...3/27/1975 23...3/28/1975 23...3/23/2015 24...3/29/1959 24...3/28/1966 24...3/27/2001 24...3/26/2014 24...3/25/1977 24...3/24/1956 24...3/24/1977 24...3/24/1992 24...3/23/2004 25...4/12/1976 25...4/09/1977 25...4/08/1982 25...3/26/1975 25...3/27/1966 25...3/29/2015 25...3/28/1959 25...3/23/1983 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: I tend to agree....the globe has warmed significantly from the end of the last -AMO Agreed, if we actually do go into a true -AMO along with the -PDO, I wonder if we may see a drop in temps (probably will be very little) or the warming may stop for awhile? But it would be interesting to see what the result is on global temps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 i think we're going to see snow again 8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 i think it's a transient pattern from the final strat warming but transient is all you need for snow 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Tomorrow will become mostly cloudy. Some showers are likely and temperatures will hold in the 40s across much of the region. The ongoing generally warmer than normal pattern will likely conclude later during the weekend. Nevertheless, this month could rank among the 15 warmest March cases on record in much of the region. There is growing potential for the month to end with cooler but not necessarily cold readings. The possibility of a fairly sharp cold shot has increased on the guidance in recent days. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal. Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31: Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2° New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2° Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3° The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +7.37 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.366 today. On March 20 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.172 (RMM). The March 19-adjusted amplitude was 2.036 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.3° (3.5° above normal). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 High of 53 here today, not looking forward to spring allergies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 3 hours ago, forkyfork said: i think we're going to see snow again The great thing is that no matter what falls, if it even happens, will be gone in less than 12 hours 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 NYC Central Park measurable snowfalls after 3/22 since 1950...I'm sure some dustings were treated as a trace and some others under measure...but that's Central Park for you... 9.6"...4/6/1982 5.5"...4/2/2018 4.2"...4/8/1956 4.1"...3/27-28/1996 4.0"...4/7/2003 4.0"...3/29/1970 3.3"...3/28-29/1984 3.2"...3/29/1974 2.5"...4/4/1957 1.9"...4/14/1950 1.2"...4/9/2000 1.2"...4/2/1965 1.2"...3/24/1956 1.0"...3/24/2011 1.0"...3/23/2005 0.8"...4/19/1983 0.8"...3/26/1955 0.7"...4/9-10/1996 0.6"...3/27-28/1959 0.6"...4/12/1959... 0.6"...4/7/1990 0.4"...4/6/1971 0.4"...3/31-4/1/1954 0.3"...4/10/1974 0.3"...3/26/2001 0.2"...4/11/1958 0.2"...3/30/1991 0.2"...3/26/1960 0.1"...4/1/2006 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 That New Orleans tornado was wild. Bad scene down there. Lots of videos on Twitter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 CMC IS THE BIG WINNER THIS RUN WITH SNOW IN THE LAST WEEK OF MARCH.......... GFS is 2" and the EURO is none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 holy F***! at that tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: The great thing is that no matter what falls, if it even happens, will be gone in less than 12 hours Well IF Forky is correct then all I can say is that I hope for that glorious 12 hours ( or more ) that Sloatsburg looks like a winter wonderland 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 56 minutes ago, Rjay said: wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 4 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Well IF Forky is correct then all I can say is that I hope for that glorious 12 hours ( or more ) that Sloatsburg looks like a winter wonderland You repeat the same thing about Sloatsburg over and over. Please get a new routine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 36 here as of 5AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 14 hours ago, uncle W said: NYC's coldest temperatures after 3/22 since 1950... 18...3/25/1956 20...3/26/1974 20...3/26/1960 21...4/07/1982 21...4/06/1982 21...3/25/1960 21...3/24/2014 22...3/31/1964 22...3/30/1970 22...3/28/1982 22...3/27/2014 23...4/05/1995 23...4/04/1954 23...3/27/1975 23...3/28/1975 23...3/23/2015 24...3/29/1959 24...3/28/1966 24...3/27/2001 24...3/26/2014 24...3/25/1977 24...3/24/1956 24...3/24/1977 24...3/24/1992 24...3/23/2004 25...4/12/1976 25...4/09/1977 25...4/08/1982 25...3/26/1975 25...3/27/1966 25...3/29/2015 25...3/28/1959 25...3/23/1983 Weird not to see 1967 in this list, 1967 was the benchmark for all backend winters (and bookend winters too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 8 hours ago, uncle W said: NYC Central Park measurable snowfalls after 3/22 since 1950...I'm sure some dustings were treated as a trace and some others under measure...but that's Central Park for you... 9.6"...4/6/1982 5.5"...4/2/2018 4.2"...4/8/1956 4.1"...3/27-28/1996 4.0"...4/7/2003 4.0"...3/29/1970 3.3"...3/28-29/1984 3.2"...3/29/1974 2.5"...4/4/1957 1.9"...4/14/1950 1.2"...4/9/2000 1.2"...4/2/1965 1.2"...3/24/1956 1.0"...3/24/2011 1.0"...3/23/2005 0.8"...4/19/1983 0.8"...3/26/1955 0.7"...4/9-10/1996 0.6"...3/27-28/1959 0.6"...4/12/1959... 0.6"...4/7/1990 0.4"...4/6/1971 0.4"...3/31-4/1/1954 0.3"...4/10/1974 0.3"...3/26/2001 0.2"...4/11/1958 0.2"...3/30/1991 0.2"...3/26/1960 0.1"...4/1/2006 wow I didn't realize that 4/2018 had the second largest April snowfall at the Park since 1950 since the big blizzard in April 1982. Should also toss in JFK/LGA totals since some were higher than the NYC totals. 4/1/2006 was 1.5" at JFK 4/9-10/1996 was 4.5" at JFK 4/19/1983 was 1.5" at JFK (latest accumulating snow) 4/7/2003 was 5.5" at JFK Wow I didn't realize April 1956 had sizeable snow even after that excellent March, very similar to what happened in 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 12 hours ago, forkyfork said: i think we're going to see snow again I hope it happens in early April, that's much more memorable than a tiny storm at the end of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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