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March 2022


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With abundant sunshine, the temperature soared to near record and record levels in parts of the region. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy but still mild, though nowhere near as warm as today was. Showers and possible thundershowers are possible as a cold front moves across the region.

A sustained warmer than normal pattern that could last for at least 1-2 weeks into the closing days of March remains underway. As a consequence, this month could rank among the 15 warmest March cases on record in much of the region.

There remains some potential for the month to end with cooler but not necessarily cold readings. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal.

Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31:

Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2°
New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2°
Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3°

The longer-range guidance has turned cooler for the close of March. Nevertheless, there is uncertainty given both the timeframe involved and the small sample sizes for MJO-ENSO cases.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around March 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March.

The SOI was +7.13 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.429 today.

On March 16 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.013 (RMM). The March 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.866 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.4° (3.7° above normal).

 

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The disturbing part is that we are seeing heat that used to be reserved only for July and August earlier now….in May and June and also later….extending into September. There is no arguing anymore that our climate has warmed and changed and very significantly so over the last 10 years especially 

not really i remember in either the last 1980's or early 1990's we had days in march where the temp was in the upper 80's in nyc in march

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3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

an unmitigated torch especially since the super nino of 15-16

The ‘15-‘16 Super El Nino was so epic it punched its way up into the stratosphere and changed the normal QBO progression. When I saw Nino region 3.4 hit +3.1C at the end of November, 2015, I knew the effects were going to be very, very huge and long-lasting….

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19 hours ago, uncle W said:

using mei data 1954-55-1956-57 were la nina...

MEI.ext timeseries from Dec/Jan 1871 through Nov/Dec 2005 (noaa.gov)

Thanks it also looks like we almost had a 3 year el nino in the early 50s?

1951-52 through 1953-54?

1952-53 just barely missed as it didn't get into el nino three month averages until February.

 

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9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The ‘15-‘16 Super El Nino was so epic it punched its way up into the stratosphere and changed the normal QBO progression. When I saw Nino region 3.4 hit +3.1C at the end of November, 2015, I knew the effects were going to be very, very huge and long-lasting….

I loved how it was way more like 1982-83 than 1997-98, we got the all time south shore snowstorm in late January.  It makes me think 1997-98 was an outlier in that even if we have a big el nino with mild temperatures, chances are at the peak of winter there will be one huge snowstorm and it'll favor the south shore.

 

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10 hours ago, nycwinter said:

not really i remember in either the last 1980's or early 1990's we had days in march where the temp was in the upper 80's in nyc in march

March 1990 was epic and I remember it to this day.  Bermuda shorts in NY, no need to go somewhere else on spring break lol.  It felt like summer.

And then we had snow in early April lol. 1-2"

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 50degs.(42/59) or +6.

Month to date is  45.1[+4.2].        Should be  46.6[+4.6] by the 27th.

Reached 61 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today: 60-64, wind s. to w., drizzle early and again late, fog early, 47 by tomorrow AM.

51*(99%RH) here at 7am{48 earlier}FOG <0.1mi.      55* at 10am.        58* at Noon and fog lifted.       Reached 62* at 4pm.      

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly to mostly cloudy and warm. Some showers and thundershowers are possible. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 65°

Newark: 66°

Philadelphia: 73°

It will turn somewhat cooler tomorrow. A general warmer than normal pattern will continue into at least early next week.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 50.7°; 15-Year: 51.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 51.7°; 15-Year: 52.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 53.7°; 15-Year: 54.3°

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5 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

How close are we to warmest March?

Have to be close at this point, right?

This is endless warmth

Westchester is currently at the 10th warmest March through the 18th. NYC and other areas are just outside the top 10. Plenty of competition for even warmer recent years.

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 18
Missing Count
1 2016-03-18 45.2 0
2 2012-03-18 45.0 0
3 1973-03-18 44.4 0
4 2020-03-18 43.9 1
5 1983-03-18 43.5 0
6 2010-03-18 43.1 0
7 1990-03-18 42.5 1
8 1977-03-18 41.6 0
9 2000-03-18 41.1 7
10 2022-03-18 40.8 0


 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 18
Missing Count
1 2016-03-18 49.0 0
2 2012-03-18 48.3 0
3 2020-03-18 48.2 0
4 1977-03-18 47.7 0
5 1973-03-18 47.3 0
- 1921-03-18 47.3 0
6 1946-03-18 46.7 0
7 2010-03-18 46.3 0
8 1990-03-18 46.2 0
9 2000-03-18 46.0 0
10 1903-03-18 45.6 0
11 1945-03-18 45.5 0
12 1878-03-18 45.4 0
13 2022-03-18 45.1 0


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 18
Missing Count
1 1973-03-18 46.3 0
2 2016-03-18 45.3 0
3 2012-03-18 44.2 0
4 2020-03-18 43.9 0
5 2010-03-18 43.6 0
6 1977-03-18 43.4 0
7 2000-03-18 42.5 0
8 1983-03-18 41.9 0
- 1974-03-18 41.9 0
9 2011-03-18 41.6 0
10 1990-03-18 41.4 0
11 2022-03-18 41.3 0
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46 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

How close are we to warmest March?

Have to be close at this point, right?

This is endless warmth

We've had way warmer March's in the past, and next week doesn't look crazy at all.  It's not really out of the ordinary to get some days that reach the 70's, and plus we've had a couple snow events (albeit minor for some) this month too.  I see some 20's for lows coming back at the end of my forecast.

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While the blocking pattern coming up doesn’t look like the strongest we have seen this time of year, it’s enough for the backdoor boundary to stall near our area in late March. Less warm temperatures after today than we have been experiencing. Then a slow moving storm system next week under the block. We’ll have to see if NYC can get the last freeze of the season around the 29th which has been the 15 year average.

 

CD52CA0B-3F4C-4007-ACE5-B191FF62C9EE.thumb.png.8f44c926d3d90ff095f76e52c04f03bb.png

8DF4B311-7154-4515-8070-9CED08AA53EB.thumb.png.3df6c6d2df1368b6206b8b5a03a31b10.png

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Season Length
Minimum 03-01 (2020) 10-31 (2020) 215
Mean 03-29 11-19 235
Maximum 04-16 (2014) 12-10 (2011) 257
2021 04-03 (2021) 32 11-23 (2021) 32 233
2020 03-01 (2020) 25 10-31 (2020) 32 243
2019 03-18 (2019) 32 11-08 (2019) 29 234
2018 04-09 (2018) 32 11-14 (2018) 32 218
2017 03-23 (2017) 23 11-10 (2017) 25 231
2016 04-10 (2016) 31 12-09 (2016) 29 242
2015 04-01 (2015) 32 11-24 (2015) 32 236
2014 04-16 (2014) 31 11-18 (2014) 24 215
2013 03-23 (2013) 32 11-12 (2013) 31 233
2012 03-27 (2012) 30 11-06 (2012) 31 223
2011 03-29 (2011) 31 12-10 (2011) 32 255
2010 03-27 (2010) 29 12-04 (2010) 32 251
2009 03-24 (2009) 27 12-07 (2009) 32 257
2008 03-30 (2008) 28 11-18 (2008) 29 232
2007 04-09 (2007) 32 11-11 (2007) 31 215
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47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Westchester is currently at the 10th warmest March through the 18th. NYC and other areas are just outside the top 10. Plenty of competition for even warmer recent years.

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 18
Missing Count
1 2016-03-18 45.2 0
2 2012-03-18 45.0 0
3 1973-03-18 44.4 0
4 2020-03-18 43.9 1
5 1983-03-18 43.5 0
6 2010-03-18 43.1 0
7 1990-03-18 42.5 1
8 1977-03-18 41.6 0
9 2000-03-18 41.1 7
10 2022-03-18 40.8 0


 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 18
Missing Count
1 2016-03-18 49.0 0
2 2012-03-18 48.3 0
3 2020-03-18 48.2 0
4 1977-03-18 47.7 0
5 1973-03-18 47.3 0
- 1921-03-18 47.3 0
6 1946-03-18 46.7 0
7 2010-03-18 46.3 0
8 1990-03-18 46.2 0
9 2000-03-18 46.0 0
10 1903-03-18 45.6 0
11 1945-03-18 45.5 0
12 1878-03-18 45.4 0
13 2022-03-18 45.1 0


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 18
Missing Count
1 1973-03-18 46.3 0
2 2016-03-18 45.3 0
3 2012-03-18 44.2 0
4 2020-03-18 43.9 0
5 2010-03-18 43.6 0
6 1977-03-18 43.4 0
7 2000-03-18 42.5 0
8 1983-03-18 41.9 0
- 1974-03-18 41.9 0
9 2011-03-18 41.6 0
10 1990-03-18 41.4 0
11 2022-03-18 41.3 0

I dont go by average temps that doesn't really indicate real warmth to me.  There has to be at least 1 80 degree day otherwise it won't compare to our other top Marches

 

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49 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Westchester is currently at the 10th warmest March through the 18th. NYC and other areas are just outside the top 10. Plenty of competition for even warmer recent years.

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 18
Missing Count
1 2016-03-18 45.2 0
2 2012-03-18 45.0 0
3 1973-03-18 44.4 0
4 2020-03-18 43.9 1
5 1983-03-18 43.5 0
6 2010-03-18 43.1 0
7 1990-03-18 42.5 1
8 1977-03-18 41.6 0
9 2000-03-18 41.1 7
10 2022-03-18 40.8 0


 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 18
Missing Count
1 2016-03-18 49.0 0
2 2012-03-18 48.3 0
3 2020-03-18 48.2 0
4 1977-03-18 47.7 0
5 1973-03-18 47.3 0
- 1921-03-18 47.3 0
6 1946-03-18 46.7 0
7 2010-03-18 46.3 0
8 1990-03-18 46.2 0
9 2000-03-18 46.0 0
10 1903-03-18 45.6 0
11 1945-03-18 45.5 0
12 1878-03-18 45.4 0
13 2022-03-18 45.1 0


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 18
Missing Count
1 1973-03-18 46.3 0
2 2016-03-18 45.3 0
3 2012-03-18 44.2 0
4 2020-03-18 43.9 0
5 2010-03-18 43.6 0
6 1977-03-18 43.4 0
7 2000-03-18 42.5 0
8 1983-03-18 41.9 0
- 1974-03-18 41.9 0
9 2011-03-18 41.6 0
10 1990-03-18 41.4 0
11 2022-03-18 41.3 0

I love that 1990 is on this list, that was my most memorable March for warmth

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