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March 2022


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15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

when are we going to have our best chance at 70? it hit 69 here in February, it can't be that hard to get to 70 at the coast

 

JFK can hit 70° on Friday if the winds stay westerly for long enough. 

14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I see upper 70s on Friday. Very easy to beat guidance this time of year with bare trees. 

If we keep the offshore flow long enough, then it will be possible. The models have a wind shift in the afternoon. So it may be a race to see how warm we get before the SE flow and clouds arrive.

FDD6EE20-2C4C-41F2-808D-FBCDADFCE8FA.thumb.png.cabe34d50cb823d4e983d9272b287246.png
 

00055C49-6756-49A9-9DAF-B23DAEE81CAD.thumb.png.413ef10653bc3fdd0d4d297e8ddecf30.png

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

you're not dumb you know why it's snowed more.....climate change = more moisture = more chances of snow.  If you look at the years in the range you specified they were MUCH colder than the winters we have now.

 

It almost appears that simple, however, I would assume our temps are similar to the Delmarva area 20-30 years ago?  Yet I would guess the NYC metro area still averaged higher snower amounts that that area?

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1 minute ago, Dark Star said:

It almost appears that simple, however, I would assume our temps are similar to the Delmarva area 20-30 years ago?  Yet I would guess the NYC metro area still averaged higher snower amounts that that area?

Being just that little bit further north means better access to the cold air when it's available. This should mean that there's a wider disparity in temps thereby creating more intense precip (which could be snow or rain).

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

you're not dumb you know why it's snowed more.....climate change = more moisture = more chances of snow.  If you look at the years in the range you specified they were MUCH colder than the winters we have now.

 

I'd also like to see what the Atlantic SSTA's were like in the 70's, I'm sure they were cooler than today. Also, I believe Atlantic tropical activity was relatively lower in the 70's and 80's than it is today.

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12 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

It almost appears that simple, however, I would assume our temps are similar to the Delmarva area 20-30 years ago?  Yet I would guess the NYC metro area still averaged higher snower amounts that that area?

Allot of it has to do with geography. The Delmarva is open to oceanic flow on a NE wind during most coastal storms limiting snow potential. 

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1 hour ago, White Gorilla said:

Is this warm pattern projected to last the test of the Spring?  I am perfectly OK with it.  

Keeping an eye on NAO/AO as they've been positive for months now. I think if they flip it won't be temporary. 

As long as it doesn't flip before May then spring should stay very warm

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3 hours ago, JTA66 said:

I'd also like to see what the Atlantic SSTA's were like in the 70's, I'm sure they were cooler than today. Also, I believe Atlantic tropical activity was relatively lower in the 70's and 80's than it is today.

The AMO was severely negative from the end of the 70’s into the early 90’s

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14 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Very sad at the ski areas

Great season coming to a quick end

This sums up Belleayre today

003FC4DD-6D8F-4AF2-A7F0-C387EBDBB5E0.jpeg

Goes too bfast in that regard especially when most places couldn't even open til very late December.   Got out with my family twice was hoping for a 3rd time but too sloppy right now.

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5 hours ago, White Gorilla said:

Is this warm pattern projected to last the test of the Spring?  I am perfectly OK with it.  

On the latest GFS for Caldwell, after this Friday and Saturday, the only other reasonably warm day on the horizon is next Saturday. There have only been a few scattered “warm days” in the last several GFS models and they’ve only been popping up on Fridays and weekends.

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GFS off and on past 2 days 23-30.  Already I84 GFS consistent Ice high terrain 23-24.  However, my interest is tempered to chanceym until the GGEM comes on board.  Again last event, GGEM/RGEM more or less had a consistent idea of heaviest snow... certainly NOT the EC (whew). 

So til the GGEm gets with it, then the EC...I'll keep going with outdoor spring cleanup and enjoy the warmth of the sun.

Walt

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Temperatures again soared well into the 60s in much of the region. However, a storm passing to the south will dent the warmth tomorrow. There will likely be some periods of rain with temperatures being held back in the 50s. The proverbial rubber band will snap on Friday as the sun returns. The mercury will likely soar to 70° or above in a large part of the northern Middle Atlantic region.

A sustained warmer than normal pattern that could last for at least 1-2 weeks into the closing days of March remains underway. As a consequence, this month could rank among the 15 warmest March cases on record in much of the region.

There remains some potential for the month to end with cooler but not necessarily cold readings, but uncertainty that far out is high. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal.

Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31:

Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2°
New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2°
Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3°

For now, the extended range ensembles, including the EPS weeklies and CFSv2 show warm anomalies for the closing 10 days of March. Nevertheless, there is uncertainty given both the timeframe involved and the small sample sizes for MJO-ENSO cases.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around March 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March.

The SOI was +10.86 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.136 today.

On March 14 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.702 (RMM). The March 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.937 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.4° (3.7° above normal).

 

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2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I want snow

**** the warmth 

 

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Fort Kent, Maine….perfect place for you to move to 

Good evening. With a good partner Anthony, warmth will always be with you. As to S19’s suggestion, I looked up the area and below is one of the many houses available and a climate abstract. My dream was to live on the Maine coast. When you and your love are established, perhaps you can become reverse snowbirds. My time for dreaming is over. Yours can still come true. Stay well, as always.

7B0CD174-A81D-494F-9E10-88B4A0CDEE88.png

54407C70-D481-42FA-8CED-AA12D0C604F2.png

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Morning thoughts…

It will be cloudy and cooler with some periods of rain. High temperatures will likely reach the middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 54°

Newark: 55°

Philadelphia: 59°

Tomorrow will be much warmer. A general warmer than normal pattern will continue into at least early next week.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 50.0°; 15-Year: 50.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 51.0°; 15-Year: 51.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 53.0°; 15-Year: 53.6°

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