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March 2022


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7 minutes ago, 2wheelin said:

As usual, our politicians got it backwards.

 

Make STANDARD time permanent, cuz, . . . well, . . . it's "standard".

Couldn't agree less.  The main problem isn't that we've had to change back and forth...it's that it stinks having it get dark before people are home from work or school.  For once, they got it right.

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Under partly to mostly sunny skies, the temperature surged well into the 60s and even reached 70° at a few locations. The south shore of Long Island was much cooler due to an onshore breeze. There, temperatures held in the 50s.

A sustained warmer than normal pattern that could last for at least 1-2 weeks into the closing days of March is underway. Tomorrow will likely feature more widespread high temperatures in the 60s.

There remains some potential for the month to end with cooler but not necessarily cold readings, but uncertainty that far out is high. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal.

Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31:

Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2°
New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2°
Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3°

For now, the extended range ensembles, including the EPS weeklies and CFSv2 show warm anomalies for the closing 10 days of March. Nevertheless, there is uncertainty given both the timeframe involved and the small sample sizes for MJO-ENSO cases.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around March 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March.

The SOI was +17.33 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.136 today.

On March 13 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.936 (RMM). The March 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.836 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.1° (3.3° above normal).

 

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4 hours ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

Couldn't agree less.  The main problem isn't that we've had to change back and forth...it's that it stinks having it get dark before people are home from work or school.  For once, they got it right.

Better than an 8:20 AM sunrise. No thanks. 

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5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's almost 70F again and probably mid-up 70s by Friday.

Sure it's nice now but this is very alarming. We're beating the newer records like it's nothing and it's only mid March. 

here, i have your summer forecast from May 15th to September 30th

94/77 every single day, no wind ever, showers and thunderstorms.  some of the storms may contain heavy spotted lanternflies.  oh and at least one tornado outbreak because that's our thing now too

enjoy it, it'll be the most comfortable summer of the rest of our lives

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7 hours ago, 2wheelin said:

As usual, our politicians got it backwards.

 

Make STANDARD time permanent, cuz, . . . well, . . . it's "standard".

Nah, 4:30 AM sunrises would be useless in May and June, I'd rather have it be light out past 8 PM.  

 

As a professional letter carrier who works outdoors, having that extra hour of daylight in the evening in November and December would be very helpful during our peak season.  The only draw back is that I'd be out delivering packages before sunrise as well.  

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14 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

January was 3.5 below normal and Feb was only 1.5 above. The heart of winter wasn't exactly a heat wave. 

the problem is it's no longer the heart of winter, winter now actually consists of two months-- January and February.  If both of those months aren't snowy then winter will usually suck.

 

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9 hours ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

Couldn't agree less.  The main problem isn't that we've had to change back and forth...it's that it stinks having it get dark before people are home from work or school.  For once, they got it right.

how about we meet in the middle and establish a new clock thats 30 min ahead of standard time year round?

 

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly sunny and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Philadelphia could reach 70°. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 64°

Newark: 66°

Philadelphia: 71°

Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy and somewhat cooler with some rain. A general warmer than normal pattern will continue through at least the remainder of the week.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 49.7°; 15-Year: 50.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 50.7°; 15-Year: 51.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 52.6°; 15-Year: 53.2°

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20 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Winters are getting shorter 

But, for the most part it has snowed decently. I wonder what this board would have been like during the 1979-1992 time period….probably the worst 13 consecutive years in history for northeast and mid-Atlantic snow

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The next 8 days are averaging 52degs.(45/59) or +10.

Month to date is 42.9[+2.4].        Should be 45.9[+5.1] by the 24th.

GFS has wet snow on the 23rd, 28th this run{0Z}----but not any on the previous 10 runs covering this period.    Should I laugh or cry?

No evidence on the NAEFS of any BN T for at least a week.     Friday is at +3sd.       CFSv2 just turned April into a greenhouse for the country and beyond.

Reached 59* here at Midnight yesterday, 51-56 during the PM.

Today: 60-65, wind nw. to s., few clouds, 48 by tomorrow AM.

54*(58%RH) here at 7am.      56* at 9am.        58*/59* at Noon.       57* at 2pm.       Most of PM spent at 53*.         50* at 7pm.

 

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

But, for the most part it has snowed decently. I wonder what this board would have been like during the 1979-1992 time period….probably the worst 13 consecutive years in history for northeast and mid-Atlantic snow

you're not dumb you know why it's snowed more.....climate change = more moisture = more chances of snow.  If you look at the years in the range you specified they were MUCH colder than the winters we have now.

 

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I'm actually more interested in the late 90s snow drought.  So that was a three year la nina like we could have this time around, correct?

Maybe we could compare snowfall totals to this 3 year period to see what kind of effect climate change has had on increasing snowfall even during down years in the 25 yrs since then?

 

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The warm spots away from the shore in NJ make another run on 70° today. Friday looks like it will be the warmest day of the week. Widespread  readings in the 70-75 range. 
 

E8A70D86-9E6A-4AE7-AD75-35FAFD852B37.thumb.png.33c6ae843859ccfd619bd290e46dcf3a.png

80CCC853-6E18-4182-8713-EEDB2B26F22E.thumb.png.dd1519ce7a08bf7f657759ccfbc3d163.png

 

when are we going to have our best chance at 70? it hit 69 here in February, it can't be that hard to get to 70 at the coast

 

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The warm spots away from the shore in NJ make another run on 70° today. Friday looks like it will be the warmest day of the week. Widespread  readings in the 70-75 range. 
 

E8A70D86-9E6A-4AE7-AD75-35FAFD852B37.thumb.png.33c6ae843859ccfd619bd290e46dcf3a.png

80CCC853-6E18-4182-8713-EEDB2B26F22E.thumb.png.dd1519ce7a08bf7f657759ccfbc3d163.png

 

I see upper 70s on Friday. Very easy to beat guidance this time of year with bare trees. 

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