March 2022

[LibertyBell]

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Western Pacific has warmed faster than the Eastern Pacific. So this increases the trade winds which keep the La Niña background state going. Remember how the developing El Niño suddenly reversed around Labor Day in 2012? Then the next  El Niño in 14-15 came in weaker than forecast before rebounding to super El Niño in 15-16. The 18-19 El Niño never fully coupled with the atmosphere due to the record SSTs in the WPAC.

https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2019/06/24/pacific-ocean-cold-tongue/

Thus the real-world cold tongue warms less than the waters over the tropical west Pacific or off the equator to the north and south. This pattern of sea-surface temperature change then causes the trade winds to strengthen, which lifts the cold subsurface water upward, further cooling the cold tongue.

So this is interesting, because of the warming of the west pacific we could actually be in a permanent or semi permanent la nina state?  That would be a good reason to move the hell away from coastal areas- not because of lack of snowfall, but because coastal areas will probably be wrecked by a barrage of tropical systems every year.  I'm glad I have my other house in the Poconos.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

And the models have backed way off the “extreme cold” and snow pattern for the east that was being hyped for mid-month. As we draw closer in time, they are correcting much stronger with the SE ridge after being way too aggressive with squashing it in the long range 

there's a positive to this....strong SE ridge means we should avoid that dreaded cool wet pattern that people were talking about, so hopefully we'll have a nice prelude to summer aka the spring and summer of 2002.

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

So this is interesting, because of the warming of the west pacific we could actually be in a permanent or semi permanent la nina state?  That would be a good reason to move the hell away from coastal areas- not because of lack of snowfall, but because coastal areas will probably be wrecked by a barrage of tropical systems every year.  I'm glad I have my other house in the Poconos.

We’ll have to see if we can get another El Niño going by the fall. Very difficult to forecast the ENSO during the current spring forecast barrier. But it looks like the current more La Niña-like pattern will continue a while longer. The last 5 years have been unprecedented for the strength of the SE Ridge. Notice how much it has increased in the means over 5 year increments. 
 

 

 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/02/21/this-weird-february-heat-dome-on-the-east-coast-could-be-unprecedented/
 

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Western Pacific has warmed faster than the Eastern Pacific. So this increases the trade winds which keep the La Niña background state going. Remember how the developing El Niño suddenly reversed around Labor Day in 2012? Then the next  El Niño in 14-15 came in weaker than forecast before rebounding to super El Niño in 15-16. The 18-19 El Niño never fully coupled with the atmosphere due to the record SSTs in the WPAC.

https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2019/06/24/pacific-ocean-cold-tongue/

Thus the real-world cold tongue warms less than the waters over the tropical west Pacific or off the equator to the north and south. This pattern of sea-surface temperature change then causes the trade winds to strengthen, which lifts the cold subsurface water upward, further cooling the cold tongue.

Every November from now on we need to fly about 1000 B-52 bombers full of ice blocks and dump them from the Philippines to north of Australia. And repeat as needed until the PNA cooperates.  

[Volcanic Winter]

It’s depressing, is what it is. Temperature consistency is better than constant wild swings between cold and warm in the winter. Swinging between something like -5 and +10 is just ridiculous in the winter. Yes, there are always warmups, it’s more the intensity and consistency that makes it so obnoxious. 
 

This is not the southeast, historically winters here are cold, even all of New Jersey. Our records are all below zero. It feels like we’re shifting toward a southeast climate with the ridge intensifying and moving north so often and so powerfully. 
 

This is probably slightly exaggerative but it feels like 14 and 15 were a “last hurrah” of real, long duration proper winters for this area. I would be overjoyed to see it again but I’m not betting on it anytime soon. Very happy we had this January but even that had warmups right after the snowfall that offset the winter vibe too much. 
 

I wonder if at some point in the next hundred to two hundred years we’ll see a temporary cold shift like a weak Younger Dryas from Greenland freshwater melt further weakening the AMOC. Definitely won’t be anything near as sharp as the YD because the Laurentide had far more meltwater than Greenland, but I’d be surprised if there isn’t a relatively brief anomalous cold period upcoming before we rocket headlong into +3 to +4C. Too bad it’s almost certainly to be after our lifetimes, if at all. 

[Dark Star]

 

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

So this is interesting, because of the warming of the west pacific we could actually be in a permanent or semi permanent la nina state?  That would be a good reason to move the hell away from coastal areas- not because of lack of snowfall, but because coastal areas will probably be wrecked by a barrage of tropical systems every year.  I'm glad I have my other house in the Poconos.

Since 1880 the average global temperature has risen 1.9° Fahrenheit. The majority of the warming has occurred since 1975, at a rate of roughly 0.15 to 0.20°C per decade.  I understand the increases are not uniform throughout the globe, but the increases seem to be greater in this area than some?  Of course, global warming is supposed to affect the poles at a greater scale.

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

It’s depressing, is what it is. Temperature consistency is better than constant wild swings between cold and warm in the winter. Swinging between something like -5 and +10 is just ridiculous in the winter. Yes, there are always warmups, it’s more the intensity and consistency that makes it so obnoxious. 
 

This is not the southeast, historically winters here are cold, even all of New Jersey. Our records are all below zero. It feels like we’re shifting toward a southeast climate with the ridge intensifying and moving north so often and so powerfully. 
 

This is probably slightly exaggerative but it feels like 14 and 15 were a “last hurrah” of real, long duration proper winters for this area. I would be overjoyed to see it again but I’m not betting on it anytime soon. Very happy we had this January but even that had warmups right after the snowfall that offset the winter vibe too much. 
 

I wonder if at some point in the next hundred to two hundred years we’ll see a temporary cold shift like a weak Younger Dryas from Greenland freshwater melt further weakening the AMOC. Definitely won’t be anything near as sharp as the YD because the Laurentide had far more meltwater than Greenland, but I’d be surprised if there isn’t a relatively brief anomalous cold period upcoming before we rocket headlong into +3 to +4C. Too bad it’s almost certainly to be after our lifetimes, if at all. 

Yea I like not having it be cold all the time but the almost 70 in late Feb and early March is a bit too much too early. 

[HVSnowLover]

Think we may get some white rain maybe on Thursday.

[donsutherland1]

With sunshine breaking through the clouds and temperatures in the 60s, it feels like spring. At the New York Botanical Garden, there are increasing signs of spring.

[bluewave]

Starting to get some record highs with the breaks of sun.

 

 

[White Gorilla]

In full on spring mode now and let's keep the warmth rolling.  I have said my goodbye to winter.  

[Snowlover11]

we bake.  66 outside.  feels amazing.  driving with the sunroof open for the first time in 2022!

[wthrmn654]

48°F out. We freeze

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

48°F out. We freeze

How

[MJO812]

66 here in Brooklyn 

[Cfa]

60 with sunshine in Central Islip.

50 and misty here in Yaphank.

Only 10 exits apart on the LIE.

[nycwinter]

i know central park got to at least 68 to tie the record did we break it? if we did not that is very disappointing as the high was expected to be 70...

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i know central park got to at least 68 to tie the record did we break it? if we did not that is very disappointing as the high was expected to be 70...

Looks like a tie so far in NYC and EWR.

 

 

[psv88]

63 here for the high 

[wthrmn654]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

How

It's cold here versus baking lol you may be in 60s but it's only 48 by me hahaha

[wthrmn654]

High of 50 today foggy cloudy lovely out

[lee59]

64 my high now 55. It felt good while it lasted.

[winterwx21]

NAM is giving southern NJ a few inches of snow wednesday, but it doesn't quite make it up here. GGEM does get it up here, but it's warmer now so you have to go northwest to see most of the snow accumulations. Looks as if wednesday is still worth keeping an eye on.

 

It made it to 69 here today. Looking for mid 70s tomorrow.

[MJO812]

Nice rainstorm next weekend on gfs

[LoboLeader1]

Topped out at 67 here today, would not mind seeing these mild temps stick around for the rest of this month.

[donsutherland1]

On this date in 1941, a blizzard dumped 15.7" of snow on New York City. This time around readings soared to record-tying and record breaking highs. Daily records included:

Albany: 64° (old record: 63°, 1974)
Atlantic City: 71° (old record: 68°, 1959 and 2004)
Baltimore: 78° (old record: 76°, 1935)
Hartford: 64° (tied record set in 1935)
New York City-LGA: 68° (old record: 64°, 1976)
New York City-NYC: 68° (tied record set in 1935)
Newark: 69° (tied record set in 1935)
Poughkeepsie: 67° (old record: 63°, 1935)
Sterling, VA: 78° (old record: 70°, 2004)
Wilmington, DE: 71° (tied record set in 1935)

Tomorrow will be another exceptionally warm day. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Baltimore and Washington, DC could reach or exceed 80°. There could be some showers or thundershowers as a cold front moves across the region.

Afterward, readings could cool, but remain mainly above seasonable levels until after March 10th. Then, a colder pattern could develop. The duration of such a pattern remains somewhat uncertain.

Overall, March will likely be warmer than normal. There may also be one or two opportunities for at least some measurable snow in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around February 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least late March.

The SOI was +22.35 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.031 today.

On March 4 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.069 (RMM). The March 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.161 (RMM).

 

[wdrag]

5 consecutive 12z/00z cycles the GGEM home alone on 1-7" wet snow in our subforum? The 18z continues... attached.  NAM now showing potential... but I think largely a placement error. Think the NAM primary FGEN will end up further north near I80.  That's just my guess based on recent model northward trends of EC/GFS (thru 12z/6 cycles), and consistency of the GGEM/RGEM. Potent little 12 hour event may be developing now that the 18z/6 NAM is giving credence to the GGEM/RGEM.

Will be a wet snow with accums on pavement probably 1/4 of the raw 10-1. Kuchera has less than 10 to 1 ratios. 2m Temps looks a little warm for snow and suspect they will be 33F wherever the r/s line.  So,  accums in the hills during heavier rates. 

Can it hold and occur WV/nMD/PA/nw NJ/se NYS/CT... i 'think' so but jury out and my bias to the GGEM could lead us astray and biased high.  SREF does not yet support, probably due to warm 2m temps.  Blend of models has less than 0.2" so that probably tempers the enthusiasm. 

 

Attached in MM  25= 1"  water equiv.  so the 10 MM (~4" 10 to 1 ratio) is fairly widespread over the interior.  I sure hope the GGEM consistency is not erroneous.  Will know Wed eve. 

[CIK62]

Near the peak today.         I leveled out here at 65 for over two hours.

 

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Topped out at 67 here today, would not mind seeing these mild temps stick around for the rest of this month.

There's 6-7 months of this stuff coming up unless you're only talking about the 60-70F range. 

[Juliancolton]

62F under clear skies at 9 pm on March 6th. What a time to be alive.