Volcanic Winter Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 Thanks Bluewave. Let me get one more decent cold shot mid month and I’ll be happy to call this winter a wrap, snow or no snow. Just want to be reminded I don’t live in South Carolina. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 6 hours ago, uncle W said: in my lifetime it snowed on my Birthday March 28th or the day after a few times... 1959...27-28th...1" snow and sleet... 1970...29th...4" rain changing to snow... 1974...29th...3-4" rain changing to snow... 1984...28th-29th...3-4" snow/rain/sleet/snow... 1996...28th-29th...4" snow/rain/snow... 1996 was outstanding with three 4"+ events in March and another one in April here. When did it snow here in March 1999 and how much did we get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 Pattern is conducive mid month for sure with the big negative epo 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 46 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 1996 was outstanding with three 4"+ events in March and another one in April here. When did it snow here in March 1999 and how much did we get? mid March 1999...end of March 1997...First day of Spring 1998...April snow 2000...four straight bad winters with late snow chances... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 The 10-20th period looks interesting. EPO supplying cold air and there's some western ridging. Even a bit of Atlantic blocking too. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: 1996 was outstanding with three 4"+ events in March and another one in April here. When did it snow here in March 1999 and how much did we get? 4-6" mid march 1999 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 31 minutes ago, uncle W said: mid March 1999...end of March 1997...First day of Spring 1998...April snow 2000...four straight bad winters with late snow chances... April 1990 too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: 1996 was outstanding with three 4"+ events in March and another one in April here. When did it snow here in March 1999 and how much did we get? It was Sunday night 10pm-6am Monday AM. I got 7.5 in Nassau. Most places saw 6-10 I think on LI with 3-6 in Queens/NYC though the airports due to it being 32-33 measured low. I think models simply could not resolve how well the lower level cold air would advect in...it was like 48-50 degrees at 6pm. I recall clearly the 4pm update Upton dropped the WSW which was out entirely. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It was Sunday night 10pm-6am Monday AM. I got 7.5 in Nassau. Most places saw 6-10 I think on LI with 3-6 in Queens/NYC though the airports due to it being 32-33 measured low. I think models simply could not resolve how well the lower level cold air would advect in...it was like 48-50 degrees at 6pm. I recall clearly the 4pm update Upton dropped the WSW which was out entirely. Seems like a lot of our March events. Funnily, we then have early April events which drop a lot more snow during the day like April 2003 and April 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Seems like a lot of our March events. Funnily, we then have early April events which drop a lot more snow during the day like April 2003 and April 2018 There is a notable snow min 3/15-3/30 then a second peak 4/1-4/10...I don't know if thats purely by chance as we are only talking about a period of 130 years or it may be a factor of continued shortening wavelengths leading to better chance a system is not able to wrap up and go inland or along the coast in April leading to better chance of a favorable snow track 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 we're likely going to see another legit threat or two if this pattern comes to fruition elongated TPV over SE Canada, EPO blocking, western ridging, and even some indications of ridging into Greenland. this is a very cold, active pattern the next week or so will be quiet, but winter is definitely not over 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Another shot of cold air will arrive tomorrow. Cool conditions will likely continue into the start of the weekend. The height of the cold will be on Friday where temperatures could start in the teens outside the major cities of the northern Middle Atlantic region and lower 20s elsewhere. However, a sharp rebound in temperatures is likely on Sunday. Sunday and Monday could provide an early preview of springlike readings across much of the region. Afterward, readings could cool, but remain above seasonable levels. Overall, March will likely be warmer than normal. There may also be one or two opportunities for at least some measurable snow in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around February 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least late March. The SOI was +16.18 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.661. On February 28 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.558 (RMM). The February 27-adjusted amplitude was 0.716 (RMM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 17 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: There is a notable snow min 3/15-3/30 then a second peak 4/1-4/10...I don't know if thats purely by chance as we are only talking about a period of 130 years or it may be a factor of continued shortening wavelengths leading to better chance a system is not able to wrap up and go inland or along the coast in April leading to better chance of a favorable snow track I know on March 6th there have been 15 snowfalls 2" or more on that date...2001 had 1.5" on 3/6...It could be the most 2" or more snowfall for any date throughout the season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 52 minutes ago, uncle W said: mid March 1999...end of March 1997...First day of Spring 1998...April snow 2000...four straight bad winters with late snow chances... 3-15-99 was one of my favorite snowstorms of the 96-97 to 99-00 snow drought era. Very heavy wet snow resulted in numerous broken branches. Some parts of the region had power outages. Most of Long Island finished in 6-10” range. Great west based -AO block and evaporational cooling did the job. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...FINAL SNOWFALL TOTALS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1050 PM EST MON MAR 15 1999 LOCATION COUNTY SNOWFALL AMOUNT (IN) NEW YORK... CENTRAL PARK NEW YORK 4.0 JFK AIRPORT QUEENS 4.0 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT QUEENS 4.0 SOUTH NYACK ROCKLAND 9.0 OCEANSIDE NASSAU 5.8 DEER PARK SUFFOLK 8.0 HUNTINGTON STATION SUFFOLK 7.5 RIDGE SUFFOLK 7.0 COPIAGUE SUFFOLK 5.5 SOUTHHAMPTON SUFFOLK 9.0 STATEN ISLAND RICHMOND 4.5 WEST BABYLON SUFFOLK 6.5 LAKE RONKONKOMA SUFFOLK 9.5 CENTERPORT SUFFOLK 9.2 FARMINGVILLE SUFFOLK 7.0 MASSAPEQUA NASSAU 6.5 HICKSVILLE NASSAU 6.1 ALBERTSON NASSAU 6.4 BRIDGEHAMPTON SUFFOLK 9.0 NORWICH NASSAU 7.0 MINEOLA NASSAU 6.0 WHITE PLAINS WESTCHESTER 5.6 YORKTOWN HEIGHTS WESTCHESTER 10.0 ROCKY POINT SUFFOLK 6.5 LYNBROOK NASSAU 6.0 WADING RIVER SUFFOLK 7.0 ISLIP AIRPORT SUFFOLK 7.5 KINGS PARK SUFFOLK 11.0 SOUTH SETAUKET SUFFOLK 9.2 MT SINAI SUFFOLK 9.0 PORT JEFFERSON SUFFOLK 10.0 MEDFORD SUFFOLK 8.0 GRAVESEND KINGS 5.3 PATCHOGUE SUFFOLK 7.6 RONKONKOMA SUFFOLK 7.5 HOLBROOK SUFFOLK 8.0 NWS BROOKHAVEN SUFFOLK 8.0 CHESTER ORANGE 9.0 WARWICK ORANGE 9.0 PLUM ISLAND WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME POWER OUTAGES. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 33 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: There is a notable snow min 3/15-3/30 then a second peak 4/1-4/10...I don't know if thats purely by chance as we are only talking about a period of 130 years or it may be a factor of continued shortening wavelengths leading to better chance a system is not able to wrap up and go inland or along the coast in April leading to better chance of a favorable snow track thats weird I thought the snow min was after the 22nd, as I remember a few events right around the equinox. dont we also have an interesting lack of 100 degree days in the last week of July? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: 3-15-99 was one of my favorite snowstorms of the 96-97 to 99-00 snow drought era. Very heavy wet snow resulted in numerous broken branches. Some parts of the region had power outages. Most of Long Island finished in 6-10” range. Great west based -AO block and evaporational cooling did the job. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...FINAL SNOWFALL TOTALS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1050 PM EST MON MAR 15 1999 LOCATION COUNTY SNOWFALL AMOUNT (IN) NEW YORK... CENTRAL PARK NEW YORK 4.0 JFK AIRPORT QUEENS 4.0 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT QUEENS 4.0 SOUTH NYACK ROCKLAND 9.0 OCEANSIDE NASSAU 5.8 DEER PARK SUFFOLK 8.0 HUNTINGTON STATION SUFFOLK 7.5 RIDGE SUFFOLK 7.0 COPIAGUE SUFFOLK 5.5 SOUTHHAMPTON SUFFOLK 9.0 STATEN ISLAND RICHMOND 4.5 WEST BABYLON SUFFOLK 6.5 LAKE RONKONKOMA SUFFOLK 9.5 CENTERPORT SUFFOLK 9.2 FARMINGVILLE SUFFOLK 7.0 MASSAPEQUA NASSAU 6.5 HICKSVILLE NASSAU 6.1 ALBERTSON NASSAU 6.4 BRIDGEHAMPTON SUFFOLK 9.0 NORWICH NASSAU 7.0 MINEOLA NASSAU 6.0 WHITE PLAINS WESTCHESTER 5.6 YORKTOWN HEIGHTS WESTCHESTER 10.0 ROCKY POINT SUFFOLK 6.5 LYNBROOK NASSAU 6.0 WADING RIVER SUFFOLK 7.0 ISLIP AIRPORT SUFFOLK 7.5 KINGS PARK SUFFOLK 11.0 SOUTH SETAUKET SUFFOLK 9.2 MT SINAI SUFFOLK 9.0 PORT JEFFERSON SUFFOLK 10.0 MEDFORD SUFFOLK 8.0 GRAVESEND KINGS 5.3 PATCHOGUE SUFFOLK 7.6 RONKONKOMA SUFFOLK 7.5 HOLBROOK SUFFOLK 8.0 NWS BROOKHAVEN SUFFOLK 8.0 CHESTER ORANGE 9.0 WARWICK ORANGE 9.0 PLUM ISLAND WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME POWER OUTAGES. I had to do a double and triple take..... NYC, JFK AND LGA WERE ALL 4.0"? HOW IS THAT EVEN POSSIBLE? Looks like we had 6" here and there was close to a foot of snow on the north shore of LI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 March dates with the most 3" snowfalls... 3/2...6 3/6...7 3/15...5 3/16...5 3/22...6 3/29...4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 LOOK AT THIS. MOSES COMES DOWN FROM THE MOUNTAIN GRADUALLY, BUT THEN FALLS INTO A CREVICE AND SMASHES HIS TABLETS TO BITS. THE "0" COMES WITH 15" OF SNOW.......................... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: we're likely going to see another legit threat or two if this pattern comes to fruition elongated TPV over SE Canada, EPO blocking, western ridging, and even some indications of ridging into Greenland. this is a very cold, active pattern the next week or so will be quiet, but winter is definitely not over My hero. Looking spicy! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 3 hours ago, uncle W said: March dates with the most 3" snowfalls... 3/2...6 3/6...7 3/15...5 3/16...5 3/22...6 3/29...4 Got anything for the 12-13....looks like that period is favored on the models What are the days with the most 6" snowfalls? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 12 hours ago, MJO812 said: Pattern is conducive mid month for sure with the big negative epo The great snowstorm pattern is only 12-15 days away! Problem is when it’s March and it stays 12-15 days away in time, you run out of time very quickly. This isn’t December or January or February when you can keep moving the goal posts forward in time and kick the can down the road and still have viable climo winter left. In 12-15 days we are past 3/15, once past that date, good luck getting a major snowstorm in NYC, we aren’t central and northern New England. Climo, sun angle and length of day are big issues come mid-month at our latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 37 here currently, topped out at 48 yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will become partly sunny. Temperatures will fall sharply this evening. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 44° Newark: 45° Philadelphia: 50° Tomorrow will be blustery and cold. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 45.8°; 15-Year: 46.2° Newark: 30-Year: 46.9°; 15-Year: 47.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 48.7°; 15-Year: 48.9° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 43degs.(35/52) or +3. Reached 54 here yesterday. Today: 40-42, steady during daytime, down to 20 overnight, wind nw., breezy, clearing skies. CHANCE OF AT LEAST 1" SNOW is zero until the 13th., and only about 50-50 overall: 40*(70%RH) here at 6am.{was 44* at 4am} 39* at 7am. 42* at 3pm. 30* at 9pm. 28* at 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 7 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Got anything for the 12-13....looks like that period is favored on the models What are the days with the most 6" snowfalls? Biggest snowfalls 21.0" 3/12-14/1888 18.1" 3/7-8/1941 14.5" 3/3-4/1960 14.5" 3/1-2/1914 12.0" 3/15-16/1896 11.8" 3/20-21/1958 11.6" 3/18-19/1956 10.6" 3/13-14/1993 10.0" 3/2/1896 ..9.8" 3/21-22/1967 ..9.4" 2/28-3/1 1949 ..8.6" 3/5/1981 ..8.4" 3/21-22/2018 ..8.3" 3/1-2/2009 ..8.0" 3/18-19/1892 ..7.7" 3/6-7 1915 ..7.7" 2/28-3/1 2005 ..7.6" 3/6-7/1916 ..7.6" 3/14/2017 ..7.5" 3/5/2015 ..7.3" 3/6-7/1923 ..6.9" 3/8-9/1984 ..6.7" 3/4-5/1917 ..6.7" 3/16-17/1956 ..6.6" 2/29-3/1/ 1968 ..6.5" 3/5/1902 ..6.2" 3/19/1992 ..6.0" 3/6-7/1870 ..6.0" 3/19/1890 ..6.0" 3/10/1907 ..6.0" 3/15/1906 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The great snowstorm pattern is only 12-15 days away! Problem is when it’s March and it stays 12-15 days away in time, you run out of time very quickly. This isn’t December or January or February when you can keep moving the goal posts forward in time and kick the can down the road and still have viable climo winter left. In 12-15 days we are past 3/15, once past that date, good luck getting a major snowstorm in NYC, we aren’t central and northern New England. Climo, sun angle and length of day are big issues come mid-month at our latitude Well at least we have a range of dates to focus on....between March 10 to March 20. Anything after that would likely be insignificant to minor (under 4"). But I think people on here dont care as long as it's something it's considered a snowy pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, uncle W said: Biggest snowfalls 21.0" 3/12-14/1888 18.1" 3/7-8/1941 14.5" 3/3-4/1960 14.5" 3/1-2/1914 12.0" 3/15-16/1896 11.8" 3/20-21/1958 11.6" 3/18-19/1956 10.6" 3/13-14/1993 10.0" 3/2/1896 ..9.8" 3/21-22/1967 ..9.4" 2/28-3/1 1949 ..8.6" 3/5/1981 ..8.4" 3/21-22/2018 ..8.3" 3/1-2/2009 ..8.0" 3/18-19/1892 ..7.7" 3/6-7 1915 ..7.7" 2/28-3/1 2005 ..7.6" 3/6-7/1916 ..7.6" 3/14/2017 ..7.5" 3/5/2015 ..7.3" 3/6-7/1923 ..6.9" 3/8-9/1984 ..6.7" 3/4-5/1917 ..6.7" 3/16-17/1956 ..6.6" 2/29-3/1/ 1968 ..6.5" 3/5/1902 ..6.2" 3/19/1992 ..6.0" 3/6-7/1870 ..6.0" 3/19/1890 ..6.0" 3/10/1907 ..6.0" 3/15/1906 I remember this one so vividly ..6.2" 3/19/1992 It was NYC first 6"+ snowfall in YEARS, here it kept changing back and forth between snow and rain and we got like 4"...can you check the JFK numbers for this storm, please? Wasn't there another one in the early 90s when we had two snow events in March, I remember one was forecast to be 5-8" but we ended up with 3-5" instead....was that also in March 1992 or a different year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I remember this one so vividly ..6.2" 3/19/1992 It was NYC first 6"+ snowfall in YEARS, here it kept changing back and forth between snow and rain and we got like 4"...can you check the JFK numbers for this storm, please? Wasn't there another one in the early 90s when we had two snow events in March, I remember one was forecast to be 5-8" but we ended up with 3-5" instead....was that also in March 1992 or a different year? you can find all jfk numbers here... Climate (weather.gov) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, uncle W said: you can find all jfk numbers here... Climate (weather.gov) Thanks. People should respect how great April 1982 was in that it would almost make the list of Top 10 March snowfalls too! And the April 1910 storm (I hope I have the year right?) would be in the top 10 too. I should remember this storm ..6.9" 3/8-9/1984 But I do not.... all snow? And I definitely dont remember this ..8.6" 3/5/1981 too young, April 1982 which happened the following year was my first snowfall memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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