Global Average Temperature and the Propagation of Uncertainty

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Baltimore and Philly beat Boston in the snowiest 7 day challenge by a few inches.
 

Maximum 7-Day Total Snowfall 
for Baltimore Area, MD (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	44.5	2010-02-11	0

 

Go

Maximum 7-Day Total Snowfall 
for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	44.3	2010-02-11	0

 

Maximum 7-Day Total Snowfall 
for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	40.5	2015-02-02	0

 

 

wow how come NYC-JFK, etc haven't ever had anything like that?  We barely ever got 30 inches in one week, I think Jan 2016 at JFK was the only time that happened and it was all in one storm.

 

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow how come NYC-JFK, etc haven't ever had anything like that?  We barely ever got 30 inches in one week, I think Jan 2016 at JFK was the only time that happened and it was all in one storm.

 

As impressive as our local snowfall records were during the 2010s, we never was able to match the back to back snowstorms in Baltimore during February 2010 an Boston from late January into February 2015. The closest we came was in Late December 2010 to late January 2011. But there was a little more separation between storms. So we beat Baltimore on the 33 day snowfall challenge. It was no match for Boston which was able to beat Buffalo.

 

Maximum 33-Day Total Snowfall 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	61.5	2011-01-27	0

 

 33-Day Total Snowfall 
for Baltimore Area, MD (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	55.0	2010-03-03	0

 

Maximum 33-Day Total Snowfall 
for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	96.3	2015-02-25	0

 

 33-Day Total Snowfall 
for Buffalo Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	89.4	2002-01-25	0

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

As impressive as our local snowfall records were during the 2010s, we never was able to match the back to back snowstorms in Baltimore during February 2010 an Boston from late January into February 2015. The closest we came was in Late December 2010 to late January 2011. But there was a little more separation between storms. So we beat Baltimore on the 33 day snowfall challenge. It was no match for Boston which was able to beat Buffalo.

 

Maximum 33-Day Total Snowfall 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	61.5	2011-01-27	0

 

 33-Day Total Snowfall 
for Baltimore Area, MD (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	55.0	2010-03-03	0

 

Maximum 33-Day Total Snowfall 
for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	96.3	2015-02-25	0

 

 33-Day Total Snowfall 
for Buffalo Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	89.4	2002-01-25	0

2010-11 was when we had our record snowpack...... do you have JFK's record for that season too, did they have their record 33 day snowfall accumulation and maximum snowpack of all time record too?

 

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

As impressive as our local snowfall records were during the 2010s, we never was able to match the back to back snowstorms in Baltimore during February 2010 an Boston from late January into February 2015. The closest we came was in Late December 2010 to late January 2011. But there was a little more separation between storms. So we beat Baltimore on the 33 day snowfall challenge. It was no match for Boston which was able to beat Buffalo.

 

Maximum 33-Day Total Snowfall 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	61.5	2011-01-27	0

 

 33-Day Total Snowfall 
for Baltimore Area, MD (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	55.0	2010-03-03	0

 

Maximum 33-Day Total Snowfall 
for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	96.3	2015-02-25	0

 

 33-Day Total Snowfall 
for Buffalo Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	89.4	2002-01-25	0

Boston had close to 100 inches in 33 days, or basically an average of 3 inches every day for 33 days lmao

It's hilarious that Buffalo's record is from 2002, one of the least snowiest and warmest winters of all time for us

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

2010-11 was when we had our record snowpack...... do you have JFK's record for that season too, did they have their record 33 day snowfall accumulation and maximum snowpack of all time record too?

 

JFK missed the best banding.

 

Data for December 26, 2010 through January 27, 2011
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
NJ	WESTFIELD 1.0 NE	CoCoRaHS	70.1
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	61.5
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	60.2
CT	DANBURY	COOP	59.8
CT	MILFORD 2.9 ESE	CoCoRaHS	59.1
CT	PORTLAND 0.9 S	CoCoRaHS	59.0
CT	BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE	CoCoRaHS	59.0
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	57.3
NJ	TENAFLY 1.3 W	CoCoRaHS	57.0
NY	CENTERPORT	COOP	55.3
CT	ANSONIA 1 NE	COOP	55.0
NJ	SADDLE BROOK TWP 0.6 E	CoCoRaHS	54.6
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	53.8
CT	BRIDGEPORT-SUCCESS HILL	COOP	53.8
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	53.0
NJ	LITTLE FALLS TWP 0.5 WNW	CoCoRaHS	52.6
NJ	GLEN ROCK 0.7 SSE	CoCoRaHS	51.8
NY	BRONX	COOP	51.3
NJ	HAWTHORNE 0.4 S	CoCoRaHS	51.1
NJ	HAWTHORNE 1.0 SSE	CoCoRaHS	50.4
NY	CORNWALL ON HUDSON 0.6 NNW	CoCoRaHS	50.1
NY	BAITING HOLLOW	COOP	48.6
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	48.4
NY	MOUNT SINAI	COOP	48.3
NY	CARMEL 4N	COOP	48.1
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	48.0
NJ	WANAQUE 0.6 S	CoCoRaHS	47.7
NY	BEACON 4.2 ESE	CoCoRaHS	46.0
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	45.8
NY	SOUTH SALEM 2.1 NW	CoCoRaHS	45.8
NY	NORTHPORT 1.6 NNE	CoCoRaHS	45.5
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	45.3
NY	YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W	COOP	45.0
NY	WALDEN 1 ESE	COOP	44.5
CT	DANBURY 0.5 W	CoCoRaHS	44.4
NY	YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 0.6 SW	CoCoRaHS	44.0
CT	EAST HAMPTON 0.6 NE	CoCoRaHS	43.0
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	43.0
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	42.3
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	42.0
NJ	OAKLAND 0.9 SSE	CoCoRaHS	41.8
NY	JAMESPORT 0.6 SSW	CoCoRaHS	41.0
NJ	KEARNY 1.7 NW	CoCoRaHS	40.8
NY	ISLIP 0.2 NW	CoCoRaHS	40.7
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	39.5
NY	WARWICK 3.2 WNW	CoCoRaHS	38.0
CT	GROTON	COOP	37.6
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	37.2
CT

Maximum 33-Day Total Snowfall 

 JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	42.1	1961-02-16	0

[ORH_wxman]

42 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Boston had close to 100 inches in 33 days, or basically an average of 3 inches every day for 33 days lmao

It's hilarious that Buffalo's record is from 2002, one of the least snowiest and warmest winters of all time for us

I was still going to school in western NY in the 2001-02 winter and that BUF storm was pretty epic…basically a stalled low over James bay kept SW flow over Lake Erie and firehosed them for about a week straight with lake effect snow. I think they had like 82 inches in that one event. 

We visited Buffalo less than a month later on our way to Niagara Falls (we used to hop the border there because the legal age was 19 instead of 21, lol) and most of it had melted amazingly…but that’s what a torch will do…esp out there. They get a lot of snow but there’s no CAD so it warms up easy too when the pattern isn’t great. 

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Boston had close to 100 inches in 33 days, or basically an average of 3 inches every day for 33 days lmao

It's hilarious that Buffalo's record is from 2002, one of the least snowiest and warmest winters of all time for us

Blue hill did 121”in just over a month and 150” for the season.

Maximum 33-Day Total Snowfall 
for BLUE HILL COOP, MA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	121.0	2015-02-25	0

 

olumn heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
MA	BLUE HILL LCD	COOP	150.8
MA	BLUE HILL COOP	WBAN	150.8
MA	KINGSTON 3.3 WNW	CoCoRaHS	128.7
RI	WEST GLOCESTER 3.4 SE	CoCoRaHS	121.5
MA	LOWELL	COOP	120.6
MA	WORCESTER REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	119.7
MA	HINGHAM	COOP	117.7
MA	NEWBURYPORT	COOP	117.0
MA	SALISBURY 3.7 NW	CoCoRaHS	116.9
MA	HAVERHILL	COOP	113.7
MA	GROVELAND 0.5 WSW	CoCoRaHS	113.6
MA	GROVELAND	COOP	112.6
MA	ACTON 1.3 SW	CoCoRaHS	111.1
MA	BOSTON LOGAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	110.6
MA	WINTHROP 0.2 N	CoCoRaHS	110.6

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I was still going to school in western NY in the 2001-02 winter and that BUF storm was pretty epic…basically a stalled low over James bay kept SW flow over Lake Erie and firehosed them for about a week straight with lake effect snow. I think they had like 82 inches in that one event. 

We visited Buffalo less than a month later on our way to Niagara Falls (we used to hop the border there because the legal age was 19 instead of 21, lol) and most of it had melted amazingly…but that’s what a torch will do…esp out there. They get a lot of snow but there’s no CAD so it warms up easy too when the pattern isn’t great. 

 

and lake effect snow also tends to not last that long (because of low water content?).  I love that area, it's actually one of three places I have it narrowed down to to see the total solar eclipse next April 8th.... it's between Syracuse (closest), Watertown and Buffalo/Niagara Falls.  Going to be in the Poconos the weekend before the eclipse (the eclipse is on Monday) and drive right up I-81 if I chase it in either Syracuse or Watertown.  I'm thinking out of those three cities, Syracuse has the best chance of having ideal weather for seeing it in early April?  But also the shortest time of totality (1.5 min) while Watertown is 3.75 min.

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

JFK missed the best banding.

 

Data for December 26, 2010 through January 27, 2011
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
NJ	WESTFIELD 1.0 NE	CoCoRaHS	70.1
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	61.5
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	60.2
CT	DANBURY	COOP	59.8
CT	MILFORD 2.9 ESE	CoCoRaHS	59.1
CT	PORTLAND 0.9 S	CoCoRaHS	59.0
CT	BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE	CoCoRaHS	59.0
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	57.3
NJ	TENAFLY 1.3 W	CoCoRaHS	57.0
NY	CENTERPORT	COOP	55.3
CT	ANSONIA 1 NE	COOP	55.0
NJ	SADDLE BROOK TWP 0.6 E	CoCoRaHS	54.6
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	53.8
CT	BRIDGEPORT-SUCCESS HILL	COOP	53.8
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	53.0
NJ	LITTLE FALLS TWP 0.5 WNW	CoCoRaHS	52.6
NJ	GLEN ROCK 0.7 SSE	CoCoRaHS	51.8
NY	BRONX	COOP	51.3
NJ	HAWTHORNE 0.4 S	CoCoRaHS	51.1
NJ	HAWTHORNE 1.0 SSE	CoCoRaHS	50.4
NY	CORNWALL ON HUDSON 0.6 NNW	CoCoRaHS	50.1
NY	BAITING HOLLOW	COOP	48.6
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	48.4
NY	MOUNT SINAI	COOP	48.3
NY	CARMEL 4N	COOP	48.1
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	48.0
NJ	WANAQUE 0.6 S	CoCoRaHS	47.7
NY	BEACON 4.2 ESE	CoCoRaHS	46.0
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	45.8
NY	SOUTH SALEM 2.1 NW	CoCoRaHS	45.8
NY	NORTHPORT 1.6 NNE	CoCoRaHS	45.5
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	45.3
NY	YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W	COOP	45.0
NY	WALDEN 1 ESE	COOP	44.5
CT	DANBURY 0.5 W	CoCoRaHS	44.4
NY	YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 0.6 SW	CoCoRaHS	44.0
CT	EAST HAMPTON 0.6 NE	CoCoRaHS	43.0
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	43.0
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	42.3
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	42.0
NJ	OAKLAND 0.9 SSE	CoCoRaHS	41.8
NY	JAMESPORT 0.6 SSW	CoCoRaHS	41.0
NJ	KEARNY 1.7 NW	CoCoRaHS	40.8
NY	ISLIP 0.2 NW	CoCoRaHS	40.7
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	39.5
NY	WARWICK 3.2 WNW	CoCoRaHS	38.0
CT	GROTON	COOP	37.6
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	37.2
CT

Maximum 33-Day Total Snowfall 

 JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	42.1	1961-02-16	0

1961 had JFK's biggest snowstorm prior to PD2 (and Jan 2016 after that.) 3 snowstorms at JFK with over two feet of snow since 1960.

 

[chubbs]

On 3/28/2023 at 8:28 AM, chubbs said:

30-year running average snowfall for some Northeast sites, focusing on I95. Plotted on a log scale, to highlight percentage changes between sites. Table below shows changes in current 30-year mean vs mean in 1970, 1990 and 2000. The sites with the lowest snow are in decline. Further north the picture is mixed, coastal I95 has increased at the expense of the interior.  I'd expect declining snow to spread slowly and unevenly north with time.  Note that we only have snowfall information for our cooler past.

Ooops, first posting had 20-year running average instead 30-year as labeled. I have subbed in the 30-year values. Doesn't change the major trends.

[tamarack]

17 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Found out today is the anniversary of that March 1942 storm!

1942: A slow-moving low-pressure system brought 11.5 inches of snow to the nation's capital on March 29, 1942. It still stands as the highest March snowfall on record in Washington, D.C. on a single calendar day. Also, Baltimore, Maryland recorded an imposing total of 21.9 inches of snow on the same day. On the flip side, eight days later, the temperature in D.C. soared to 92 degrees on April 6, 1942, and it remains the highest temperature on record for April 6.

 

I wonder how much we got up here from it?

 

Amazing Baltimore got almost twice DC's total in that storm.

Only fringed in the NYC area.  Central Park 0.5" with only 0.14" LE, EWR 3.1"/0.31" LE.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, tamarack said:

Only fringed in the NYC area.  Central Park 0.5" with only 0.14" LE, EWR 3.1"/0.31" LE.

Sounds like one of those storms that does better south and west, too much ocean influence further north...January 2000 was like that too (or was it January 1999? I always mix up the years lol.)

[bluewave]

The long term average snowfall at Islip is 29” since 1963-1964 when the station was established. Maybe it would be closer to 30-32” if more frequent measurements were taken back in the earlier era like today. Would mostly show up in the heavier snowfall seasons when measurements were fewer allowing for more compaction. 

The range between high and low snowfall years has been increasing. Now we get more seasons under 15” like this one or over 40”. Fewer years near the middle of the distribution range. So perhaps warming introduces more volatility into the system leading to more all or nothing type seasons. Very tough to do seasonal snowfall outlooks in the fall with such an increase in variability.
 

Under 15” and over 40” years bolded. Some older years near 40” bolded for under measurement 

23 years from 93-94 to 22-23

9 years from 63-64  to 92-93
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY

lick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	0.0	0.5	4.4	9.2	9.2	4.9	0.8	29.0
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	0.4	T	3.0	1.6	M	5.0
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.3	31.8	3.3	1.6	0.0	37.0
2020-2021	T	0.0	7.5	1.1	24.9	T	T	33.5
2019-2020	0.0	0.1	4.2	2.5	0.0	T	T	6.8
2018-2019	0.0	4.3	T	0.9	3.5	4.1	T	12.8
2017-2018	0.0	T	6.0	22.0	1.4	31.9	4.6	65.9
2016-2017	T	T	3.2	14.0	14.7	7.4	T	39.3
2015-2016	0.0	0.0	T	24.8	13.2	3.2	0.2	41.4
2014-2015	0.0	T	0.4	30.2	13.4	19.7	0.0	63.7
2013-2014	0.0	0.3	8.1	25.2	24.5	5.4	0.2	63.7
2012-2013	0.0	4.2	0.6	3.3	31.4	7.4	0.0	46.9
2011-2012	0.3	0.0	T	3.8	0.6	T	0.0	4.7
2010-2011	0.0	T	14.9	34.4	3.9	2.1	T	55.3
2009-2010	0.0	0.0	25.3	6.4	21.7	0.4	0.0	53.8
2008-2009	0.0	T	10.4	8.9	3.3	13.6	T	36.2
2007-2008	0.0	0.0	2.6	0.8	7.3	T	0.0	10.7
2006-2007	0.0	T	0.0	1.0	4.2	3.8	T	9.0
2005-2006	0.0	0.5	7.6	4.7	19.9	3.2	0.1	36.0
2004-2005	0.0	T	7.0	21.5	17.0	13.3	0.0	58.8
2003-2004	0.0	0.0	15.5	19.1	1.1	5.7	0.0	41.4
2002-2003	0.0	1.0	16.0	2.6	26.3	3.7	5.0	54.6
2001-2002	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.7	T	T	0.0	3.7
2000-2001	T	0.0	10.8	9.2	8.6	10.3	T	38.9
1999-2000	0.0	T	0.4	5.8	2.6	0.2	T	9.0
1998-1999	0.0	0.0	3.0	4.5	2.8	9.1	T	19.4
1997-1998	0.0	T	1.0	T	T	1.6	T	2.6
1996-1997	0.0	T	1.2	3.3	2.2	3.7	2.0	12.4
1995-1996	0.0	3.0	13.3	20.2	19.0	12.0	9.6	77.1
1994-1995	0.0	T	T	T	5.1	T	0.0	5.1
1993-1994	0.0	T	3.3	8.8	20.0	5.0	0.0	37.1
1992-1993	0.0	0.0	2.1	2.3	10.9	13.3	0.0	28.6
1991-1992	0.0	0.0	2.0	2.3	1.5	7.6	T	13.4
1990-1991	0.0	0.0	T	3.6	5.3	1.9	0.0	10.8
1989-1990	0.0	7.6	0.2	2.0	2.0	4.2	3.0	19.0
1988-1989	0.0	0.0	10.4	4.4	1.2	3.0	T	19.0
1987-1988	0.0	1.1	4.2	10.7	0.1	3.4	0.0	19.5
1986-1987	0.0	T	3.4	8.8	8.6	1.7	0.0	22.5
1985-1986	0.0	T	2.1	2.6	10.4	0.1	T	15.2
1984-1985	0.0	T	4.7	9.3	5.8	T	T	19.8
1983-1984	0.0	T	2.6	11.9	T	8.2	0.0	22.7
1982-1983	0.0	0.0	3.2	1.5	26.1	T	1.1	31.9
1981-1982	0.0	0.0	1.0	18.1	0.3	T	16.0	35.4
1980-1981	0.0	T	0.5	13.2	T	7.1	0.0	20.8
1979-1980	T	0.0	1.5	4.0	1.5	2.0	0.0	9.0
1978-1979	0.0	4.0	T	6.9	17.2	T	T	28.1
1977-1978	0.0	0.8	0.2	27.7	28.9	10.4	T	68.0
1976-1977	0.0	T	6.2	11.2	6.6	4.0	0.0	28.0
1975-1976	0.0	T	11.0	7.8	7.5	3.9	0.0	30.2
1974-1975	0.0	0.5	T	1.8	11.0	1.2	T	14.5
1973-1974	0.0	0.0	T	9.0	17.0	8.0	T	34.0
1972-1973	T	0.0	T	1.5	3.0	T	T	4.5
1971-1972	0.0	T	T	2.1	12.5	1.0	T	15.6
1970-1971	0.0	0.0	2.1	11.3	2.0	1.0	2.5	18.9
1969-1970	0.0	T	12.0	7.0	7.0	1.0	T	27.0
1968-1969	0.0	T	3.0	T	19.5	11.0	0.0	33.5
1967-1968	0.0	2.5	5.0	9.1	3.0	3.0	0.0	22.6
1966-1967	0.0	0.0	8.6	1.0	19.5	21.7	T	50.8
1965-1966	0.0	0.0	T	12.1	3.6	0.0	0.0	15.7
1964-1965	0.0	0.0	2.0	24.6	7.4	4.5	1.0	39.5
1963-1964	0.0	T	11.0	11.7	16.0	1.0	0.0	39.7

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The long term average snowfall at Islip is 29” since 1963-1964 when the station was established. Maybe it would be closer to 30-32” if more frequent measurements were taken back in the earlier era like today. Would mostly show up in the heavier snowfall seasons when measurements were fewer allowing for more compaction. 

The range between high and low snowfall years has been increasing. Now we get more seasons under 15” like this one or over 40”. Fewer years near the middle of the distribution range. So perhaps warming introduces more volatility into the system leading to more all or nothing type seasons. Very tough to do seasonal snowfall outlooks in the fall with such an increase in variability.
 

Under 15” and over 40” years bolded. Some older years near 40” bolded for under measurement 

23 years from 93-94 to 22-23

9 years from 63-64  to 92-93
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY

lick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	0.0	0.5	4.4	9.2	9.2	4.9	0.8	29.0
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	0.4	T	3.0	1.6	M	5.0
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.3	31.8	3.3	1.6	0.0	37.0
2020-2021	T	0.0	7.5	1.1	24.9	T	T	33.5
2019-2020	0.0	0.1	4.2	2.5	0.0	T	T	6.8
2018-2019	0.0	4.3	T	0.9	3.5	4.1	T	12.8
2017-2018	0.0	T	6.0	22.0	1.4	31.9	4.6	65.9
2016-2017	T	T	3.2	14.0	14.7	7.4	T	39.3
2015-2016	0.0	0.0	T	24.8	13.2	3.2	0.2	41.4
2014-2015	0.0	T	0.4	30.2	13.4	19.7	0.0	63.7
2013-2014	0.0	0.3	8.1	25.2	24.5	5.4	0.2	63.7
2012-2013	0.0	4.2	0.6	3.3	31.4	7.4	0.0	46.9
2011-2012	0.3	0.0	T	3.8	0.6	T	0.0	4.7
2010-2011	0.0	T	14.9	34.4	3.9	2.1	T	55.3
2009-2010	0.0	0.0	25.3	6.4	21.7	0.4	0.0	53.8
2008-2009	0.0	T	10.4	8.9	3.3	13.6	T	36.2
2007-2008	0.0	0.0	2.6	0.8	7.3	T	0.0	10.7
2006-2007	0.0	T	0.0	1.0	4.2	3.8	T	9.0
2005-2006	0.0	0.5	7.6	4.7	19.9	3.2	0.1	36.0
2004-2005	0.0	T	7.0	21.5	17.0	13.3	0.0	58.8
2003-2004	0.0	0.0	15.5	19.1	1.1	5.7	0.0	41.4
2002-2003	0.0	1.0	16.0	2.6	26.3	3.7	5.0	54.6
2001-2002	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.7	T	T	0.0	3.7
2000-2001	T	0.0	10.8	9.2	8.6	10.3	T	38.9
1999-2000	0.0	T	0.4	5.8	2.6	0.2	T	9.0
1998-1999	0.0	0.0	3.0	4.5	2.8	9.1	T	19.4
1997-1998	0.0	T	1.0	T	T	1.6	T	2.6
1996-1997	0.0	T	1.2	3.3	2.2	3.7	2.0	12.4
1995-1996	0.0	3.0	13.3	20.2	19.0	12.0	9.6	77.1
1994-1995	0.0	T	T	T	5.1	T	0.0	5.1
1993-1994	0.0	T	3.3	8.8	20.0	5.0	0.0	37.1
1992-1993	0.0	0.0	2.1	2.3	10.9	13.3	0.0	28.6
1991-1992	0.0	0.0	2.0	2.3	1.5	7.6	T	13.4
1990-1991	0.0	0.0	T	3.6	5.3	1.9	0.0	10.8
1989-1990	0.0	7.6	0.2	2.0	2.0	4.2	3.0	19.0
1988-1989	0.0	0.0	10.4	4.4	1.2	3.0	T	19.0
1987-1988	0.0	1.1	4.2	10.7	0.1	3.4	0.0	19.5
1986-1987	0.0	T	3.4	8.8	8.6	1.7	0.0	22.5
1985-1986	0.0	T	2.1	2.6	10.4	0.1	T	15.2
1984-1985	0.0	T	4.7	9.3	5.8	T	T	19.8
1983-1984	0.0	T	2.6	11.9	T	8.2	0.0	22.7
1982-1983	0.0	0.0	3.2	1.5	26.1	T	1.1	31.9
1981-1982	0.0	0.0	1.0	18.1	0.3	T	16.0	35.4
1980-1981	0.0	T	0.5	13.2	T	7.1	0.0	20.8
1979-1980	T	0.0	1.5	4.0	1.5	2.0	0.0	9.0
1978-1979	0.0	4.0	T	6.9	17.2	T	T	28.1
1977-1978	0.0	0.8	0.2	27.7	28.9	10.4	T	68.0
1976-1977	0.0	T	6.2	11.2	6.6	4.0	0.0	28.0
1975-1976	0.0	T	11.0	7.8	7.5	3.9	0.0	30.2
1974-1975	0.0	0.5	T	1.8	11.0	1.2	T	14.5
1973-1974	0.0	0.0	T	9.0	17.0	8.0	T	34.0
1972-1973	T	0.0	T	1.5	3.0	T	T	4.5
1971-1972	0.0	T	T	2.1	12.5	1.0	T	15.6
1970-1971	0.0	0.0	2.1	11.3	2.0	1.0	2.5	18.9
1969-1970	0.0	T	12.0	7.0	7.0	1.0	T	27.0
1968-1969	0.0	T	3.0	T	19.5	11.0	0.0	33.5
1967-1968	0.0	2.5	5.0	9.1	3.0	3.0	0.0	22.6
1966-1967	0.0	0.0	8.6	1.0	19.5	21.7	T	50.8
1965-1966	0.0	0.0	T	12.1	3.6	0.0	0.0	15.7
1964-1965	0.0	0.0	2.0	24.6	7.4	4.5	1.0	39.5
1963-1964	0.0	T	11.0	11.7	16.0	1.0	0.0	39.7

 

 

 

Can we check this against Upton's snowfall record? I think 1966-67 was the snowiest season on record on Long Island before 1995-96, Upton recorded 75 inches, so that 50.8 at Islip is definitely undermeasured.

 

[bluewave]

32 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Can we check this against Upton's snowfall record? I think 1966-67 was the snowiest season on record on Long Island before 1995-96, Upton recorded 75 inches, so that 50.8 at Islip is definitely undermeasured.

 

Sharp gradient that month. Lower totals further NW. Higher totals across Eastern Suffolk. But ISP did better in 17-18. So banding can make a dramatic effect across 25 miles. You can see an even another big spread in 95-96. Lower years like this one can be more uniform. ISP was way above Upton in 13-14. So it’s all a matter of where the best banding sets up.

Data for October 1, 1966 through April 30, 1967
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
BNL	COOP	74.9
SETAUKET STRONG	COOP	42.6
ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	50.8
RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	56.9
PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	62.8
WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	66.1
BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	68.9

 

Data for October 1, 2017 through April 30, 2018
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW	CoCoRaHS	72.0
NESCONSET 1.4 SSW	CoCoRaHS	71.8
ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	65.9
PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW	CoCoRaHS	59.2
CENTERPORT	COOP	58.5
UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK	COOP	55.2

 

 

Data for October 1, 1995 through April 30, 1996
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	84.0
GREENPORT POWER HOUSE	COOP	80.0
ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	77.1
PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	92.0
RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	78.8
BNL	COOP	90.8

 

Data for October 1, 2022 through April 30, 2023
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
ORIENT POINT STATE PARK	COOP	7.4
NESCONSET 1.4 SSW	CoCoRaHS	7.4
RIDGE 1.8 SE	CoCoRaHS	6.6
UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK	COOP	6.5
PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW	CoCoRaHS	6.0
CENTER MORICHES 0.5 N	CoCoRaHS	5.5
CENTERPORT	COOP	5.4
BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	5.1
CENTEREACH 1.3 NE	CoCoRaHS	5.1
ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	5.0

 

Data for October 1, 2013 through April 30, 2014
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	63.7
BAITING HOLLOW	COOP	62.7
CENTERPORT	COOP	60.8
RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	57.3
MOUNT SINAI	COOP	55.8
ROCKY POINT 2.0 N	CoCoRaHS	51.4
UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK	COOP	47.3

[raindancewx]

Here is a better way to look at what I was saying. Look at the temperature grid v. the snowfall pattern nationally. The lightest green area is 55-60F average annual temperature. The lighter greens for snow are generally in the same spots.

[michsnowfreak]

One of the common assumptions about snowfall is that it in places where it is increasing due to more moisture it is melting faster. Just thought Id throw in my Detroit stats, thats really not the case. I only have snowcover data since 1913. Obviously while the snowy period last decade was crazy in many places - and NOT the norm - I dont think Boston has to worry anytime soon about losing snow/winter. 

I cant even speculate what the future of Great Lakes snowfall will do, but there have been no longterm negative trends. The 2010s were the snowiest decade on record. The 1930s-60s were a bad time for heavy snowfalls in this area.

Avg seasonal snow per decade

 Snow  1”+ dpth    3”+ dpth   6”+ dpth  10”+ dpth     

1880s   43.1”

1890s   43.2”

1900s   46.3”

1910s   39.6”

1920s   46.1”  51 days  23 days   8 days   1 day

1930s   32.9”  42 days  16 days   4 days   1 day

1940s   27.8”  49 days  22 days   3 days   0 days

1950s   37.8”  47 days  19 days   5 days   1 day

1960s   31.8”  57 days  24 days   5 days   1 day

1970s   45.6”  57 days  35 days  13 days   2 days

1980s   45.2”  47 days  29 days  12 days   2 days

1990s   37.9”  37 days  20 days   8 days   2 days

2000s   45.3”  51 days  31 days  12 days   2 days

2010s   49.9”  53 days  38 days  18 days  10 days

2020s*  43.7”  46 days  24 days   4 days   2 days

 

*only thru 2022

[bluewave]

Less ice means more lake effect snow for the Great Lakes.

https://glisa.umich.edu/resources-tools/climate-impacts/great-lakes-ice-coverage/

The number of days per winter with lake ice coverage has declined since the start of record in 1973. ¹

In most areas, ice cover declines were a sudden shift as opposed to a gradual decline.  For Lakes Michigan, Erie, and Ontario the shift occurred in the mid-1980s, but for Lakes Superior and Huron the shift occurred during the 1997/98 winter. ^2 3

Ice cover has decreased the most in the north (i.e., Lake Superior, Northern Lake Michigan and Huron) and in coastal areas

Ice cover on the Great Lakes will likely continue to decrease in the future, however, these decreases are expected to be interrupted by high-ice winters associated with cold air outbreaks.

Reduced ice cover results in more winter lake-effect precipitation and increased winter wave activity.

https://glisa.umich.edu/resources-tools/climate-impacts/lake-effect-snow-in-the-great-lakes-region/

Overall, snowfall has increased in northern lake-effect zones in the Great Lakes basin even as snowfall totals in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio have declined with rising temperatures. Warmer Great Lakes surface water temperatures and declining Great Lakes ice cover have likely driven the observed increases in lake-effect snow. 

[bdgwx]

On 2/24/2022 at 9:21 PM, bdgwx said:

The entirety of the conclusion from the Frank 2010 publication boils down to this series of calculations.

(1a) σ = 0.2 "standard error" from Folland 2001

(1b) sqrt(N * 0.2^2 / (N-1)) = 0.200 where N is the number of observations (2 for daily, 60 for monthly, etc.)

(1c) sqrt(0.200^2 + 0.200^2) = 0.283

(2a) σ = 0.254 gaussian fit based on Hubbard 2002

(2b) sqrt(N * 0.254^2 / (N-1)) = 0.254 where N is the number of observations (2 for daily, 60 for monthly, etc.)

(2c) sqrt(0.254^2 + 0.254^2) = 0.359

(3) sqrt(0 283^2 + 0 359^2) = 0.46

I had a pretty insightful conservation with Dr. Frank recently. I now know more about his methodology.

First, he revealed that he used Bevington 4.22 for steps (1b) and (2b). This is a problem for two reasons. 1) It is not the uncertainty of anything and is only the weighted average variance of the data. 2) It is an intermediate step intended to be used in conjunction with 4.23. Furthermore, Dr. Frank told me that 4.22 is used for systematic error while 4.23 is used for random error. That is just patently false. Bevington says no such thing. And, in fact, Bevington seems to say the opposite. Section 4 like most of the work is for random error. Nevermind that 4.22 does not even compute uncertainty in the first place.  Steps (1b) and (2b) are completely wrong.

Second, he is using the summation in quadrature rule sqrt[a^2 + b^2] for steps (1c) and (2c). It is important to note that this rule is only valid for random uncorrelated error. The problem here is that he is trying to assess the uncertainty of the anomaly which is a subtraction of the baseline from the observation both of which share the same systematic error. That means there is correlation between the two values. For example, if the observation is biased by +0.2 C then the baseline will also be biased by +0.2 C as well and so when you do the subtraction the bias cancels since 0.2 - 0.2 = 0 C. To assess uncertainty when there is correlation you must use the law of propagation of uncertainty which Bevington describes in section 3 and presents as equation 3.13. Note that this also appears as equation 16 in JCGM 100:2008.

Their other problems with his methodology. I was only focused on the equations he used in my most recent conversation with him.

Anyway, I hope to have more content related to the global average temperature and our level of confidence in its estimation. The release of STARv5 is interesting so I hope to be able to post about it and UAH/RSS in the not too distant future. I've also been able to acquire more datasets for study. I've also been experimenting with predictive models using machine learning to estimate what these various datasets are going to report before they publish.