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February 25th Wintry Mix OBS THREAD


The 4 Seasons
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3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Wow, no kidding. South Weymouth wins again, awwwweeee shucks 

It's a joke, but I don't live in S wey lol.  And no aww shucks. I was thinking 5-7 in thump.  Total 5-8. We'll see what later on brings as the pings are arriving shortly.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I had to sneak one in there.

 

Hopefully you get something later this afternoon to top it off.

Hey .. the sleet capital of SNE has reclaimed its title. Swfe always deliver. 
 With 4-5” OTG now , much of it sleet.. it will take a long time to melt next week . So I’ll take solace in that .

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BTV morning discussion.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 904 AM EST Friday...Interesting morning acrs our fa as
widespread moderate to localized heavy snow continues acrs most
of our cwa. Did get a report from NWS employee in Williston of
some sleet mixing with the snow and sure enough radar shows 35
to 40 dbz pocket in this area, not sure why as soundings are -8C
or colder at all levels. Maybe combination of unsaturated DGZ
and weak instability btwn 15kft and 20kft.

Watching water vapor is pretty neat this morning, as mid lvl
dry slot is quickly pushing into central/northern NY ahead of
potent 5-7h short wave trof over the central Great Lakes. Within
this dry slot KBUF sounding is indicating some steepening lapse
rates within the 700 to 500mb layer, which is closely tied
within the favorable snow growth region. So anticipating as
better dynamics arrive btwn 15z-21z today, a period of moderate
snowfall with embedded heavy snowfall still looks very
reasonable from a SLK to BTV to MVL line. Snowfall rates of 1 to
2 inches per hour with localized up to 3 inches is possible,
given the convective potential per soundings. Just noted a cloud
to ground lighting strike btwn Massena and Ottawa. Heaviest
snowfall should arrive in the btwn area btwn 16z-18z, before
shifting east. Expect very poor visibilities and hazardous
driving conditions. The limiting factor to higher snowfall
amounts wl be quick movement of system and moisture decreasing
aft 21z. Did tweak snow ratios a bit this morning based on obs,
which did make some minor adjustments to the snowfall. Still
anticipating a widespread 6 to 12 inches. Snow ends by 00z this
evening acrs most of the fa.
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1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Will--is later today/this evening anyuthing of note?  Looks like perhaps just a coating.

A little sleet mixed in with the flakes now.

Prob not much, but there's a chance we could get 1-2" of fluff. The lift is low around 800mb, but it actually lines up well with the lower part of the SGZ....temps are like -11C at 800mb where the lift is centered. So an inch or two of blower fluff wouldn't be that surprising.

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