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March 2022 temperature forecast contest


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  • Rjay pinned this topic

Table of forecasts for March 2022

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

 

wxallannj _________________+3.3 _+3.1 _+2.6 __ +2.2 _+3.6 _+2.8 ___+0.6 _-0.5 _-1.0

RJay _____________________ +3.0 _+2.8 _+2.0 __+0.5 _+4.2 _+2.5 ___+0.5 _-1.0 _+0.8

DonSutherland 1 _________+3.0 _+2.3 _+1.8 __ +1.8 _ +3.8 _+2.4 ___+1.7 _+1.8 _-0.7 

Tom ______________________+2.6 _+2.8 _+2.8 __ +1.9 _+2.7 _+0.6 ___-0.5 _-0.6 _-0.9

BKViking _________________+2.6 _+1.9 _+1.4 __ +0.2 _+2.9 _+2.0 ___+0.9 _+1.4 _+0.2

Stormchaser Chuck (-2%)_+2.5_+2.0_+1.5 __ -3.0 _ +3.0 _+3.0 ___+2.5 _+3.5 __0.0

___ Consensus ____________+2.3 _+2.0 _+1.5 __+0.7 _+3.0 _+2.1 ___ +0.6_ +0.4 _-0.6

so_whats_happening _____+2.1 _+1.7 _+1.2 __ +1.1 __+3.4 _+2.4 ___+1.2 _ +1.3 _-0.6

hudsonvalley21 ___________+2.1 _+1.6 _+1.2 __ +1.3 _+3.0 _+2.2 ___ +0.8 _+0.5 _-0.5

RodneyS __________________+1.9 _+1.4 _+1.0 __ +0.2 _+4.2 _+1.3 ___-0.6 _+0.3 _-1.4

wxdude64 ________________+1.7 _+2.1 _+1.5 __ +0.8 _+2.2 _+1.6 ___ +0.3 _-0.4 _-1.2

Scotty Lightning __________+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 ___ 0.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _+0.5

____ Normal _______________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0

Roger Smith ______________ -1.3 _ -1.5 _ -1.7 __ -2.2 _ -1.0 _ -2.0 ___ -3.0 _ +1.0 _ -0.7

==============================================

color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts. 

Consensus is median value (mean of 6th and 7th ranked of 12). 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Anomalies and projections updated ... 

_______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

11th __ (10d anom) ___ +5.3 _ +3.1 _ +2.5 __ +3.0 _ +7.8 _ -1.1 ___ -5.5 _ -1.6 _ -1.7

21st __ (20d anom) ___+5.0 _ +5.0 _ +4.3 __ +3.0 _ +2.8 _ -3.2__ -3.9 _ -0.5 _ -1.2

 

11th __ (p20d anom) _ +3.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 __ +1.5 _ +4.0 __ 0.0 ___ -3.0 _ -1.0 _ -1.0

11th __ (p27d anom) _  +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ +0.5 _ +2.0 _ +0.5 ___ -2.0 _ -0.5 _ -0.5

21st __ (p31d anom) _ +4.0 _ +4.0 _ +3.5 __ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ -2.0 ___ -2.0 _ +0.5 _ -0.5

29th __ (p31d anom) _ +3.0 _ +3.0 _ +3.0 __ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ -2.0 ___ -1.5 _ +1.0 _ 0.0

1st Apr _ final anoms _ +2.8 _ +2.5 _ +3.1 __ +1.7 _ +2.5 _ -1.8 ___ -2.2 _ +0.6 _ -0.2

(the above are now all final values)

------------------

(11th) _ The projections in general are towards normal from both the currently warm east and the cold west, as a less distinct pattern emerges with various rather unspectacular temperature regimes indicated. In the east there looks to be a tendency for the storm track to be rather far south to sustain much warmth, but at the same time the next large cold outbreak after the coastal storm on the weekend seems to be the last one for a while. Expecting a lot of days not that far from average in all regions. 

(21st) _ The anomalies have remained fairly static and the projections recognize that this trend is fairly resistant to change although some much colder air is shown for ORD at times next week. Final monthly anomalies are generally on the same side of normal as current ones, with slight reductions. DEN and IAH should approach normal. 

(29th) _ End of month projections updated for preliminary scoring. 

( 1st ) _ Final anomalies posted. 

The snowfall amounts are updated to April 10th ...

Updated winter snowfall totals ... to Apr 10th 

DCA _ 13.2"

NYC _ 17.9"

BOS _ 54.0"

ORD _ 32.6"

DTW _ 44.8"

BUF _ 95.3"

DEN _ 47.1"

SEA _ 9.2"

BTV _ 66.5"

 

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Snowfall Forecast Contest Departures (errors)
 
This table will track the departures of each forecaster, those which are in italics and underlined are forecasts already passed by actual amounts; those departures (errors) can only increase with more snow. All other departures (errors) can be reduced by new snowfalls. The actual snowfalls are the latest available for each station. A reminder, our contest is based on total winter snowfall, not any portion such as Dec to Mar, so it includes anything that might fall in April and May. 
 
The table is now in order of least total departures.  
 
_________________________________ DCA __NYC __BOS ___ ORD __DTW __BUF __ DEN __SEA __BTV ___ Total dep
 
(to date -- April 28) _____________ 13.2 __ 17.9 __ 54.0 ___ 32.8 __ 47.1 ___ 97.4 __47.1 __ 9.2 __70.7 
 
 
RodneyS ________________________ 12.8 __ 25.0 __ 45.0 __ 54.0 __ 42.0 __ 91.0 __ 48.0 __12.0 __ 75.0 
RodneyS _________________________ 0.4 ___ 7.1 ____ 9.0 ___ 21.2 ___ 5.1 ____ 6.4 ___ 0.9 __ 2.8 ___ 4.3 ______ 57.2
 
DonSutherland 1 __________________9.4 __ 27.3 __ 44.9 __ 35.1 __ 28.3 __ 84.0 __ 43.4 __ 9.5 __ 71.5 
DonSutherland 1 __________________3.8 ___ 9.4 ___ 9.1 ____ 2.3 __ 18.8 ___13.4 ____ 3.7 __ 0.3 ___ 0.8 ______ 61.6 
 
Roger Smith ______________________17.5 __ 32.5 __ 50.7 __ 44.8 __ 49.5 __107.2 __ 52.0 __10.5__ 82.2
Roger Smith ______________________ 4.3 __ 14.6____ 3.3  __ 12.0 ___ 2.4____ 9.8 ___ 4.9 ___ 1.3 __ 11.5 ______ 64.1 
 
wxallannj ________________________12.0 __ 28.0 __ 36.0 __ 38.0 __ 36.0 __ 92.0 __ 41.0 __11.0 __ 95.0 
wxallannj ________________________ 1. 2 __ 10.1 ___ 18.0  ___ 5.2 ___ 11.1  ___ 5.4 ____6.1 ___1.8 __ 24.3 ______ 83.2
 
RJay _____________________________ 5.0 __ 20.0 __ 42.0 __ 40.0 __ 34.0 __ 90.0 __ 50.0 __13.0 __100.0 
RJay _____________________________ 8.2 ____ 2.1 __ 12.0 ____ 7.2___13.1 ____ 7.4 ___ 2.9 ___ 3.8 __ 29.3 _____ 86.0
 
hudsonvalley21 __________________11.6 __ 30.3 __ 33.8 __ 32.7 __ 32.4 __ 94.0 __ 45.0 __10.2 __108.8 
hudsonvalley21 __________________ 1.6 __ 12.4 __ 20.2 ____ 0.1 ___14.7 ____3.4 ____2.1 ___ 1.0 ___ 38.1 ______93.6  
 
so_whats_happening _____________16.0 __ 34.0 __ 62.0 __ 41.0 __ 45.0 __ 74.0 __ 36.0 __11.0 __ 91.0 
so_whats_happening ______________2.8 __ 16.1 ____ 8.0 ___ 8.2 ____2.1 __ 23.4 ___ 11.1 ___1.8 __ 20.3 ______ 93.8
 
Deformation Zone ________________ 8.0 __ 18.0 __ 36.0 __ 38.0 __ 44.0 __ 70.0 __ 24.0 __ 4.0 __ 86.0 
Deformation Zone ________________ 5.2 ____ 0.1 __ 18.0 ____5.2 ___ 3.1 ___ 27.4 __ 23.1 __ 5.2 __ 15.3 _____ 102.6
 
wxdude64 _______________________20.0 __ 38.0 __ 54.0 __ 52.0 __ 47.0 __104.0__ 58.0 __13.0 __105.0 
wxdude64 ________________________ 6.8 __ 20.1 ____0.0 __ 19.2 ____ 0.1 ___ 6.6 __ 10.9 ___3.8 __ 34.3 _____ 102.8
 
Tom ______________________________17.7 __ 36.9 __ 46.1 __ 48.7 __ 47.8 __ 94.4 __ 65.2 __ 8.1 __102.2 
Tom ______________________________ 4.5 __ 19.0 ___ 7.9 ___ 15.9 ___ 0.7 ___ 3.0 ___18.1 ___ 1.1 ___ 31.5 ______ 103.7  
 
BKViking _________________________ 8.0 __ 28.0 __ 42.0 __ 44.0 __ 25.0 __ 88.0 __ 55.0 __22.0__ 85.0 
BKViking _________________________ 5.2 ___ 10.1 ___12.0 __ 11.2 __ 22.1 ____ 9.4 ____ 7.9 __ 12.8 __ 14.3 _____ 105.0  
 
 
Scotty Lightning _________________10.0 __ 23.0 __ 38.0 __ 44.0 __ 38.0 __106.0 __ 49.0 __ 7.0 __129.0 
Scotty Lightning _________________ 3.2 ___ 5.1 ____16.0 __ 11.2 ____ 9.1 ____ 8.6 ___ 1.9 ___ 2.2 __ 58.3 ______ 115.6 
 
 
mean of forecasts _______________12.3 __ 28.4 __ 44.2 ___ 42.7 __ 39.1 __ 91.2 __ 47.2 __10.9 __ 94.2
mean of forecasts _______________ 0.9 __ 10.5 ____ 9.8 ____ 9.9 ____8.0 ___ 6.2 ___ 0.1 ___ 1.7 ___23.5 _______ 70.6 (3rd-4th)
 
====================================
 
These departures will continue to be updated. 
Will be a close finish if DEN and BUF add more snow (current leaders will lose ground if so)
 
   
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  • 3 weeks later...

Final Scoring for March 2022

Scoring is based on final anomalies (two posts back also shown in table).  

 

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL

 

___ final anomalies ______+2.8 _+2.5 _+3.1 _____ +1.7 _+2.5 _-1.8 ____________ -2.2 _+0.6 _-0.2

 

Tom ______________________96 _ 94 _ 94 __ 284 __96 _ 96 _ 52 __ 244 __528 __ 66 _ 76 _ 86 __ 228 ____ 756

___ Consensus ____________90 _ 90 _ 68 __ 248 __ 80 _ 90 _ 22 __ 192 __440 __ 44 _ 96 _ 92 __ 232 ____ 672

hudsonvalley21 ___________86 _ 82 _ 62 __ 230 __ 92 _ 90 _ 20 __ 202 __ 432 __ 40 _ 98 _ 94 __ 232 ____ 664

wxdude64 ________________78 _ 92 _ 68 __ 238 __ 82 _ 94 _ 32 __ 208 __ 446 __ 50 _ 80 _ 80 __ 210 ____ 656

BKViking __________________96 _ 88 _ 66 __ 250 __ 70 _ 92 _ 24 __ 186 __ 436 __ 38 _ 84 _ 92 __ 214 ____ 650

wxallannj _________________ 90 88 _ 90 __ 268 __ 90 _ 78 _ 08 __ 176 __ 444 __ 44 _ 78 _ 84 __ 206 ____ 650

DonSutherland 1 __________ 96 _ 96 _ 74 __ 266 __ 98 _ 74 _ 16 __ 188 __ 454 __ 22 _ 76 _ 90 __ 188 ____ 642 

RodneyS __________________ 82 _ 78 _ 58 __ 218 __ 70 _ 66 _ 38 __ 174 __ 392 __ 68 _ 94 _ 76 __ 238 ____ 630

so_whats_happening ______86 _ 84 _ 62 __ 232 __ 88 _ 82 _ 16 __ 186 __ 418 ___32 _ 86 _ 92 __ 210 ____ 628

RJay ______________________ 96 _ 94 _ 78 __ 268 __ 76 _ 66 _ 14 __ 156 __ 424 __ 46 _ 68 _ 80 __ 194 ____ 618

Scotty Lightning __________ 64 _ 70 _ 48 __ 182 __ 66 _ 70 _ 44 __ 180 __ 362 __ 46 _ 82 _ 86 __ 214 ____ 576

____ Normal _______________ 44 _ 50 _ 38 __ 132 __ 66 _ 50 _ 64 __ 180 __ 312 __ 56 _ 88 _ 96 __ 240 ____ 552

Stormchaser Chuck (-2%) _ 92*_ 88*_67*__247 __ 06 _ 88*_ 04 __ 098 __345 __ 06 _ 41*_ 94*__141 ____ 486

Roger Smith _______________18 _ 20 __ 04 __ 042 __ 22 _ 30 _ 96__ 148 __ 190  __ 84 _ 92_ 90 __266 ____ 456

--------------------------------------------------------

 

Extreme forecast report

DCA (+2.8) borderline, four scores higher than warmest forecast (+3.3), 2nd-3rd (+3.0) and 4th-5th warmest (+2.6) all tied at 96, will count this using the fractional 0.25 win in the table. Wxallannj takes a loss on this one.  

_ NYC (+2.5) finished just outside the criteria with 4th warmest forecast high score.

_ BOS (+3.1) is a win for Tom with warmest forecast (+2.8). 

_ ORD (+1.7) not quite in the extreme forecast range with third warmest forecast (+1.8) top score.

_ ATL not in range with consensus close to high score.

_ IAH (-1.8) a win for Roger Smith coldest (-2.0).

_ DEN (-2.2) another win for Roger Smith cold ramping at -3.0. 

_ PHX (+0.6) not in range with consensus close to high score.

_ SEA (-0.2) also not in range, four forecasts warmer and eight colder. 

Overall, just four extreme forecasts, two warm and two cold. 

 

(forecasts)

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

 

wxallannj _________________+3.3 _+3.1 _+2.6 __ +2.2 _+3.6 _+2.8 ___+0.6 _-0.5 _-1.0

RJay _____________________ +3.0 _+2.8 _+2.0 __+0.5 _+4.2 _+2.5 ___+0.5 _-1.0 _+0.8

DonSutherland 1 _________+3.0 _+2.3 _+1.8 __ +1.8 _ +3.8 _+2.4 ___+1.7 _+1.8 _-0.7 

Tom ______________________+2.6 _+2.8 _+2.8 __ +1.9 _+2.7 _+0.6 ___-0.5 _-0.6 _-0.9

BKViking _________________+2.6 _+1.9 _+1.4 __ +0.2 _+2.9 _+2.0 ___+0.9 _+1.4 _+0.2

Stormchaser Chuck (-2%)_+2.5_+2.0_+1.5 __ -3.0 _ +3.0 _+3.0 ___+2.5 _+3.5 __0.0

___ Consensus ___________+2.3 _+2.0 _+1.5 __+0.7 _+3.0 _+2.1 ___ +0.6_ +0.4 _-0.6

so_whats_happening _____+2.1 _+1.7 _+1.2 __ +1.1 __+3.4 _+2.4 ___+1.2 _ +1.3 _-0.6

hudsonvalley21 ___________+2.1 _+1.6 _+1.2 __ +1.3 _+3.0 _+2.2 ___ +0.8 _+0.5 _-0.5

RodneyS __________________+1.9 _+1.4 _+1.0 __ +0.2 _+4.2 _+1.3 ___-0.6 _+0.3 _-1.4

wxdude64 ________________+1.7 _+2.1 _+1.5 __ +0.8 _+2.2 _+1.6 ___ +0.3 _-0.4 _-1.2

Scotty Lightning __________+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 ___ 0.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _+0.5

____ Normal _______________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0

Roger Smith ______________ -1.3 _ -1.5 _ -1.7 __ -2.2 _ -1.0 _ -2.0 ___ -3.0 _ +1.0 _ -0.7

==============================================

==============================================

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_<<< ____________ Annual Scoring Report (Jan-Mar 2022) _______________>>>_

Total scores for each location, region ... best scores for locations in red, for regions in bold type.

Tom advanced from 8th to 5th after taking high score in March. Those who had been 5th to 7th are now

6th to 8th. Consensus moved into a tie for 4th (had been below 4th last month). These are the only

changes to ranks

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA __west __ TOTAL

 

wxdude64 ______________205 _237 _257 __ 699__241 _247_ 120 __608 _1307 __176 _212 _ 261 __649 ____1956

so_whats_happening ____202 _214 _214 __ 630 __253 _230_ 84 __567 _1197 __ 140 _236 _274 __650 ____1847

wxallannj ________________184 _196 _216 __ 596 __238 _224 _130__592 _1188 __184 _220 _230 __634 ____1822

hudsonvalley21 __________190 _204 _188 __ 582 __246 _218 _100 __564 _1146 __170 _254 _250 __674 ____1820

 

___ Consensus ___________190 _204 _198 __ 592 __230 _222 _ 96 __548 _ 1140 __180 _248 _252 __680 ____1820

 

Tom _____________________ 166 _170 _186 __ 522 __240 _192 _210 __642 _ 1162 __212 _240 _176 __628 ____1792

DonSutherland1 _________ 204 _216 _220 __ 640 __252 _180 _ 82 __514 _ 1154 __160 _234 _220 __614 ____1768

BKViking _________________188 _194 _194 ___ 576 __210 _222 _ 66 __498 _ 1074 __172 _250 _248 __670 ____1744

RodneyS _________________166 _158 _168 ___ 492 __178 _208 _126 __512 _ 1004 __206 _254 _248 __708 ____1712

 

_____ Normal _____________134 _154 _162 ___ 450 __146 _180 _180 __506 __ 956 __168 _254 _222 __644 ____1600

 

Scotty Lightning _________154 _174 _182 ___ 510 __128 _180 _100 __408 __ 918 __ 148 _238 _212 __598 ____1516

RJay _____________________176 _188 _192 ___556 __206 _196 _ 46 __448 _ 1004 __138 _ 170 _156 __464 ____1468

Roger Smith ______________ 66 _ 78 _ 58 __ 202 __ 88 _ 136 _156 __380 __ 582 __ 236 _210 _220 __666 ____1248

Stormchaser Chuck (2/3) _184 _180 _147 __ 511 __ 64 _ 174 _ 84 __ 322 __ 833 __ 100 _ 109 _ 118 __327 ____1160

===========================================

Best Forecasts _ 

* tied for high score with one other forecaster __ ^ tied for high score with three others (Mar). 

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA _west _ total

wxdude64 _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Jan

so_whats_happening ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*____ 0

wxallannj ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

hudsonvalley21 __________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1*____ 0

___ Consensus ___________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

Tom ______________________ 1^___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Mar

DonSutherland1 __________ 2^___ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____1 ____ 1 ____ 1 __ Feb

BKViking _________________ 1^___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

RodneyS _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

___ Normal ________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0

Scotty Lightning __________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

RJay ______________________ 1^___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

Roger Smith ______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0

Stormchaser Chuck _______ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 0

=========================

EXTREME FORECAST SCORING 

(second total in brackets adjusts for tied wins which are indicated by * in monthly logs only -- so far this has occurred once for SEA in Feb.)

(in March, four shared a win for DCA shown by ^ -- this counts as 0.25 in the second bracketed total).

(wins for Normal are in addition to forecaster wins and do not replace them)

So far, 17 of 27 forecasts qualify, 6 warmest and 11 coldest; Jan 0-5, Feb 4-4, Mar 2-2.

FORECASTER ____________ Jan _Feb _Mar _ _TOTAL

DonSutherland1 __________ --- _ 4-0*_ 1-0^____5-0 (3.75 - 0)

wxdude64 ________________1-0 _ 3-0*_ --- ____4-0 (3.5 - 0)

Tom ______________________ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 2-0^___ 4-0 (3.25 - 0)

Roger Smith ______________ --- _ 1- 1 _ 2-0 ___ 3-1

Stormchaser Chuck _______2-1 _ --- _ --- ____ 2-1

RodneyS __________________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- ___ 1-0

so_whats_happening _____ 1-0 _ --- _ --- ____ 1-0

____ Normal _______________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- ____ 1-0

RJay ______________________ --- _ --- _ 1-0^____ 1-0 (0.25 - 0)

BKViking __________________ --- _ --- _ 1-0^____ 1-0 (0.25 - 0)

hudsonvalley21 ___________ --- _ --- _ --- ____ 0-0

Scotty Lightning __________ --- _ --- _ --- ____ 0-0

wxallannj __________________--- _ --- _ 0-1 ____ 0-1

===============================

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