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Spring/Summer 2022 Medium/Long Range Forecast Discussion.


John1122
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Meteorological Spring hits March 1st, thus begins the quiet season on the forums. This thread should suffice until fall for any long range disco. 

I doubt the last flakes have fallen this year but I don't really expect another widespread winter threat either. It was definitely a Plateau to Western Tennessee winter. Tough for Eastern areas not to do any better with virtually the entire month of January being BN for temps. 

The flood threat, as it always seems to be these days, is definitely elevated again this spring. The severe threat, I'll leave that to Jeff, Jax, and the rest of the severe gurus. 

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If the GEFS is to be believed, we will start March cool and then warm up until mid-month at least. Probably my biggest hope as we hit spring is no early long duration well AN temps in March that cause things to bloom early. Carvers report on the weeklies make that seem not so big a worry. Hopefully they verify. 

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  • Mr Bob pinned this topic

@Weathertree2, I think it is going to depend on the ENSO state.  If we switch to El Nino and don't have a Nina hangover, I think it should be tolerable with maybe a seasonable fall. The hot, dry, never-ending summers are La Nina's typically.  I will probably lean seasonal to maybe slightly above for summer, and seasonal for spring.

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It would be wild if I got more snow after March 1st than I did prior to that.  The Euro Weeklies are cold and have nearly a 6" snow mean over NE TN....not bad for portions of the state considering it is March and like 95 degrees today - hyperbole.  This cold shot could be nasty.  The GEFS MJO this morning (CPC reference) was rotating back to phases 2-3 which are cold when centered on March - the coldest phases of that cycle for this time of year.

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I could be wrong, but I think the chances of a winter storm around the 12th are increasing for at least some portion of the forum area.  The 0z Euro has a pretty good signal.  This is one of these "wave riding a front" deals.  Just too far out to get any decent handle on the details, but the setup is there on modeling - even if every run doesn't hit the jackpot.

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8 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Basically, modeling is not sure how to handle the wave that is developing on a cold depicted for March 12th.  The 6z GFS shows a best case scenario/partial phase.

That run was a serious, mid-winter type storm. It was mid 20s with heavy sleet and snow across the forum area. Backed off now, but man, that would be a sweet close to the winter season. 

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2 hours ago, John1122 said:

That run was a serious, mid-winter type storm. It was mid 20s with heavy sleet and snow across the forum area. Backed off now, but man, that would be a sweet close to the winter season. 

The 18Z GFS looks about as good for NE TN as did at any point during winter.  LOL!!!

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We have the Carter's Valley snow hole and the Hardin Valley snow hole on the 6z GFS run:

NKHx5l8.png

 

We also have a Strat split right now:

gfs_Tz10_nhem_1.png

 

With the potential for another one in the long range. 

Convection from last weeks western Pac kind of puttered out so we never saw the big SOI drop I thought we would, but I was pretty impressed by how the MJO just tanked into the COD this week. 

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Th 6z GFS run has system back.  It looks like models is looking at three scenarios.

1.  Cold front passage with snow showers behind the front.  0z CMC

2.  A wave of low pressure forms to our SE and allow for a bigger snow event.  6z GFS

3.  Cutter through E TN which allows for snow in middle and west forum areas. 0z Euro

 

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