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March 2022 General Discussion


SchaumburgStormer
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Looks like some classic pseudo spring weather settling in for awhile.

I’ve been too uninterested to make an updated post in the spring thread, but another pattern change has occurred.

This pattern will be heavily influenced by a -NAO, leading to a mean trough axis across the N Plains, Midwest, Lakes and Northeast.
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Kitchen sink winter storm here.  Had freezing rain/sleet all night and then a changeover to snow around 11 this morning.  Temps barely cold enough but still a decent amount of ice accretion on things. Could see a few inches of slushy snow through this evening, then remaining unsettled with snow/mix chances through Saturday.

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8 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:


I’ve been too uninterested to make an updated post in the spring thread, but another pattern change has occurred.

This pattern will be heavily influenced by a -NAO, leading to a mean trough axis across the N Plains, Midwest, Lakes and Northeast.

:axe: Only way to save this is a jacked clipper somewhere.

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Just heard some thunder with the temp being 1.5C or 35F, that might be a new personal record as the previous lowest with lightning/thunder was 2.5C or so. Never had it below freezing around here. I've been getting bursts of heavy rain starting late afternoon and I'm sitting at 17mm/0.67" so far today.

Dundalk ON continues to have freezing rain at times heavy; I'd hate to be a resident there today. Another inch or so of that forecast.

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Way out there but oh lord, the 18z GFS has an unwelcome visitor around April 5.

Regardless of whether or not that happens, this isn't exactly a nice springtime pattern, as has already been alluded to.  But I suppose you usually don't get a perfectly clean transition out of winter anyway.

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Way out there but oh lord, the 18z GFS has an unwelcome visitor around April 5.
Regardless of whether or not that happens, this isn't exactly a nice springtime pattern, as has already been alluded to.  But I suppose you usually don't get a perfectly clean transition out of winter anyway.
Looks great.
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14 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Way out there but oh lord, the 18z GFS has an unwelcome visitor around April 5.

Regardless of whether or not that happens, this isn't exactly a nice springtime pattern, as has already been alluded to.  But I suppose you usually don't get a perfectly clean transition out of winter anyway.

Please start the thread, so we can kill it. Thanks in advance.

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As I posted in Central/Western regarding next Wednesday, when we may (at least briefly) get into the warm sector of an intense surface low ahead of another one of those excessively amplified, meridional flow troughs:

00Z and 06Z GFS have rather paltry instability throughout the warm sector despite upper 50s dewpoints all the way to southern Wisconsin (equal to or greater moisture as the model was forecasting to reach this latitude on March 5th at this range). That's probably a factor of the sheer amount of convection the model breaks out.

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Front moving through with light snow. Gusty NW winds should pick up later. Looks like chilly winter-like weather the next few days. GFS likes to keep a significant system at the end of the month, and I do have something for April 1st in the Holiday 2022 thread. But that's few days off yet.  

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2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

As I posted in Central/Western regarding next Wednesday, when we may (at least briefly) get into the warm sector of an intense surface low ahead of another one of those excessively amplified, meridional flow troughs:

00Z and 06Z GFS have rather paltry instability throughout the warm sector despite upper 50s dewpoints all the way to southern Wisconsin (equal to or greater moisture as the model was forecasting to reach this latitude on March 5th at this range). That's probably a factor of the sheer amount of convection the model breaks out.

I took a peek at that system.  Regardless of the progged paltry instability, I would expect at least a modest/lower end severe threat to materialize in the sub given such a dynamic system w/robust forcing.  And obviously even a little bit of instability could ratchet up the threat given the other favorable factors.

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49 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Later on could get a little interesting from a squally perspective.  SPC even has a general thunder area.

I threw up a Facebook post on our EMA page this morning warning of quickly changing visibility with some squalls. Fortunately, it will be in the late evening/AM hours down here, so will hopefully be low impact.

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Let's do it

 

mcd0337.gif

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0337
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0218 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Iowa through southern
   Wisconsin and northern Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 251918Z - 252145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Showers and isolated thunderstorms will overspread the
   region through late afternoon, some accompanied by a mix of frozen
   precipitation, strong wind gusts approaching severe limits, and
   occasional sharply reduced visibilities.

   DISCUSSION...An intensifying cyclonic, northwesterly jet streak is
   in the process of digging across and southeast of the Upper Midwest.
   This includes speeds within its core increasing in excess of 90 kt
   around 500 mb and 50 kt around 850 mb.  Within the exit region of
   this jet streak, strong lower/mid tropospheric cooling is ongoing
   (including temps of -16 to -32C in the 700-500 mb layer),
   contributing to pronounced steepening of low-level lapse rates. 
   This is currently becoming most prominent across parts of
   northeastern Iowa and southwestern Wisconsin into northern Illinois,
   aided by insolation, where deepening convective development is
   underway. 

   Rapid Refresh forecast soundings suggest that the destabilizing
   thermodynamic profiles may become supportive of convection reaching
   15-20 thousand plus foot depths, and perhaps becoming capable of
   occasionally producing lightning.  Given the cold nature of these
   profiles, including rather low freezing levels within a couple
   thousand feet above ground level, the well-mixed sub-cloud boundary
   layer probably will allow for a transition from rain to melting
   frozen precipitation ranging from graupel to snow in the stronger
   showers/downdrafts.  This may also enhance the downward mixing of
   potentially damaging wind gusts to the surface, as activity develops
   southeastward through 22-00Z.

   ..Kerr.. 03/25/2022
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