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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly


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Op ed: No one asked ...but my personal opinion is that this "freak" cold, is another example of that seasonal precession(autumn), and later at the other end, the lag(spring) phenomenon we've been seeing over the last 20 years.  All those petty snows in October and May ?  ( some more than petty)   They are caused by changing the mechanics of atmospheric circulation engine of the planet ...  Most obviously attributed to CC

Snark: But we have our own brand of denial here.  We don't deny because we are preserving our right to profligate the environment and protect ( usually for money ) special interests that are directly or indirectly dependent upon that exploitation - no.  We deny because acceptance means facing the reality that winters are declining in all metrics.   

Muse: Which it is a freak occurrence ... The significance of it is merely masked by two principles. 

One, it's still early enough in spring to sort of look sideways at its significance.  But the principle of it ... this cold is vastly superior in standard deviation to anything that took place between Thanks Giving and St Patty's Day this last season - relativity is where this story is told.  So it waits until almost the turn of April and the way end of March to deliver this. That's the lag - I have strong hypothesis why these late cold displays take place in this era, too.

Two, we've been saturated with the phenomenon of 'record breaking,' in general over the spectrum of all metrics under the sun, for more than a decade.  So having so deeply negative below previous records ... some dating 100 years or more at synoptic instructive cold, might slip past people's attention.  Particularly when they are in heated homes and cars and no sooner, Thursday, the region's apt to bathe in a 70 F afternoon   

 

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42 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Low at 15°, at least the wind is not as bad today. Walking the dog I barely saw any signs of green up.

Any Green up is done for a while….killed!  There was Very lil green here to start anyway, so really no loss,  we start trying from the next mild days. 
 

Peepers frozen like peepsicles…

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10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Any Green up is done for a while….killed!  There was Very lil green here to start anyway, so really no loss,  we start trying from the next mild days. 
 

Peepers frozen like peepsicles…

It starts tomorrow lol. All you need is sun and 50. 

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56 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Any Green up is done for a while….killed!  There was Very lil green here to start anyway, so really no loss,  we start trying from the next mild days. 
 

Peepers frozen like peepsicles…

I was out splitting some kindling at dusk last night, it felt like the middle of winter with the wind and not a single "peep" out of those critters that had been so loud for the past week

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Tomorrow could be a sneaky big diurnal day... We are definitely deep in the cold heading into tonight... But the present cold/CAA pattern abruptly ends and we go calm overnight. 

Over the top of the decoupling meat locker ( ugh)  ..the high pressure shifts south and east, and puts us in a west/SW drift above the deck.  It may not even drop as low tonight at elevations ... ORH warm than FIT.   Then tomorrow, the sun is strong enough this time of year to destroy inversion, no question - the question is whether the advance of WAA clouds caps us.  If not and the wind gone light and d-slope under higher the Equinox sun angle, we'll beat MOS.  If clouds... ignore this post.  ha.   

By 00z tomorrow night, the 850s have surged from -10 C at dawn, all the way +4C by dark.  We'll mix overnight with more SW wind establishing.. We're apt to be warmer at dawn on Thursday than we are at sun down tomorrow evening, a d(t) exaggerated by a potent warm front between 06 and 12z Thursday morning.   Hard to say how warm Thurs gets... The GGEM is engineering all these needling ways to punch holes in the warm up potential.  The GFS looks cleaner as does the Euro. Climate favors spring/warm enthusiasts enduring sore butts so the GGEM can't be ignored...

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Tomorrow could be a sneaky big diurnal day... We are definitely deep in the cold heading into tonight... But the present cold/CAA pattern abruptly ends and we go calm overnight. 

Over the top of the decoupling meat locker ( ugh)  ..the high pressure shifts south and east, and puts us in a west/SW drift above the deck.  It may not even drop as low tonight at elevations ... ORH warm than FIT.   Then tomorrow, the sun is strong enough this time of year to destroy inversion, no question - the question is whether the advance of WAA clouds caps us.  If not and the wind gone light and d-slope under higher the Equinox sun angle, we'll beat MOS.  If clouds... ignore this post.  ha.   

By 00z tomorrow night, the 850s have surged from -10 C at dawn, all the way +4C.  In fact, we're apt to be warmer at dawn on Thursday than we are at sun down tomorrow evening, a d(t) exaggerated by a potent warm front between 06 and 12z Thursday morning.   Hard to say how warm Thurs gets... The GGEM is engineering all these needling ways to punch holes in the warm up potential.  The GFS looks cleaner as does the Euro. Climate favors spring/warm enthusiasts enduring sore butts so the GGEM can't be ignored...

Fascinating stuff...sometimes I forget why I check out the moment that it stops snowing, said me never-

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13 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I'm just going off of reports ive seen so far today. 3" was the highest report today that ive seen. And 2" the highest from yesterday evenings squalls in W CT in Litchfield, Fairfield and New Haven counties. So, i was just basing it on any overlap and including both events from yesterday and today. 

I'll figure it out tomorrow morning when the next day of cocorahs reporting comes out. 

March 27th reports were

0.5" New Milford/Oxford/Shelton

1.0 Newtown

2.0" Warren

March 28th 

1.7" Seymour

2.5" Bethany

3.0" Southbury

 

 

1.5 for Branford. A friend in New Haven right by exit 8 on 91 where the big crash was measured 2.2 inches. 

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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Hmmm, I wasn’t really seeing lots of 60s on the models.  Looks like lots of low 50s with plenty of chances for clouds and showers. 

Thursday/ Friday 60’s . And at least 1-2 days next week. Fropas with showers but no soaking rains. It’s a spring pattern after this nonsense . No big warmth but no cold 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Thursday/ Friday 60’s . And at least 1-2 days next week. Fropas with showers but no soaking rains. It’s a spring pattern after this nonsense . No big warmth but no cold 

Trust me, I’m rooting for warmth,  it’s just easy to be pessimistic this time of year when the pattern is so-so. 

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17 hours ago, weathafella said:

1966 showing in some of those records.   That was a very hot summer!

Hottest summer of my experience, especially July 2-4 (Sat/Sun/Mon) when EWR had highs of 102/105/100.  (NYC a modest 100/103/98, LGA 101/107/99)  Obscenely hot next to the griddle at Curtiss-Wright's private lake resort in NNJ.  On Sunday, the busiest day of my 2 summers working there, it was Death Valley plus - the cheap coil thermometer 10-12 feet from the griddle rotated well past the 120° top of its scale.  We couldn't do our usual bun-browning beneath the griddle flame - they would go straight to black, with maybe a nanosecond of brown stage.

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I'd take Superstorm93's Euro numbers in a heart beat under April sun.  

Obviously it won't be sunny every day of that. But having a "climo" look, while all numbers are actually a pube flopped over the warmer side, is both appealing if/when it is sunnier, ...but also is typical of CC era. 

Aside:  It just bothers me how I go look at the climate page at NWS Boston near the end of every month going back many years... and 80 or 90% of the months since 2000 ...some 260 month's worth, are always positive.  

These 30-years mean methods are belying "rate of change" as a significance.   It's not so much that it is above normal, it's the acceleration of it that is the tell.  

The last hope for any snow this season ( synoptic ) appears to end via telecon spread ... roughtly the 5th of April.  We're going to toast up a bit this week ..balancing out the 'soothing' nadir we're caressing our way through yesterday and today...  But after that, we slip into a more typical early April kind of marginal atmosphere, where it can be 62 and sunny, but inject any theta-e into the column with UVM and it's wet snow.  That lasts perhaps 5 days...  The operational runs that go out longer than that don't really reflect the extent of warming S of the Canadian border, suggestively offered by the GEFs -based numbers.    The NAO having neutralized and tending positive; the PNA is negative and going down.  I have seen a couple of GFS runs that are attempting to flat ridge east of 100W across the country in the la la range - it could be an early attempt.  

 

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