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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly


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6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

This winter felt very short to me, but whatever, it appears to be over. 

It was...mostly just January and a few fleeting periods in February. I'm still annoyed at December where the pattern wasn't that far from being really good. We just somehow managed to get a -20 sigma PNA when a merely solidly negative PNA would have been fine.

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mm  there's a Miller b out there on the GEFs mean ... sort of there in the 00z, but more coherent in the 12z, looks like late on the 24th through the 25th.  

not a lot of support for it suggestive of the numerical telecon, but the latter was calculated off the 00z, ... so there that.  but also, the wave lengths are shorter, so those may not be as dependable - typical spring issue with those.

We'll have to see... i was a proponent of this sort of relaxed flow/curvature having a window for a couple of weeks between the 15th and the April Fools... 

It's interesting that the MJO desk is speculating a warm anomaly.  If they're onto something with that forcing ( strong Phase 4-6 constructively overlaying a warm La Nina spring climo...) than this stuff might get rudely usurped by a force the operational runs merely have not yet detected in the physics just yet.   Somethong to keep in mind, too.

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm  there's a Miller b out there on the GEFs mean ... sort of there in the 00z, but more coherent in the 12z, looks like late on the 24th through the 25th.  

not a lot of support for it suggestive of the numerical telecon, but the latter was calculated off the 00z, ... so there that.  but also, the wave lengths are shorter so the those may not be as dependable - typical spring issue with those.

We'll have to see... i was a proponent of this sort of relaxed flow/curvature having a window for a couple of weeks between the 15th and the April Fools... 

It's interesting that the MJO desk is speculating a warm anomaly.  If they're onto something with that forcing ( strong Phase 4-6 constructively overlaying a warm La Nina spring climo...) than this stuff might get rudely usurped by a force the operational runs merely have not yet detected in the physics just yet.   Somethong to keep in mind, too.

The larger scale features are interesting on the 12z runs....you have the massive PV lobe acting as the 50/50 low in Labrador/New Foundland and a trough ejecting out of the central CONUS. I'd like the trough to be a little more organized....seems kind of disjointed a little and positively tilted, but those are details we know can change easily at this lead time

 

 

Mar17_12zGEM156.gif

Mar17_12zGFS156.gif

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51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Like Will said earlier, no loss this time of year. 

Oh no absolutely no loss..agreed. Just throwing it out there, that it will fail to produce, at least for SNE.  It’s the tenor…something will sabotage it. No science behind it, just going on what has been happening all winter…abs I know things/wavelengths are changing and all, but I’m sticking with the tenor. 

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2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

61 here. Winter is dead to me. I have shifted mentally to spring mode now. Melt it all. 

Probably one of the earliest I've seen 1,500ft here get to this patchy cover point.  South facing is just getting obliterated, north facing still solid cover but man the Spruce Peak south facing slopes are getting hammered.  2012 was similar melt out time at 1500ft during 5 days of 70s with lows like 40s and even 50s.

Still really fun spring skiing with the stake at 54" on the north/east facing aspects.  

276173375_10104753964793310_730951701161

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