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Feb 24-25th Event -- Generators for some, pre-emerg for others


JTA66
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3 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

So as of now all guidance showing at least some sort of icing situation out this way Berks LV area? I guess we still have a couple days to move this North  

That signal has been pretty consistent for all the models today.  It seemed to be more sleety up that way and then some kind of atmospheric warming that would change it to rain but the temps would be much colder up there too compared to down here in Philly metro, south and east, so the ZR issue.

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Looks like each side remains in their corners. GFS/EC with some kind of precip through the storm and NAM doing the dryslotting (although the NAM has some kind of antecedent brushes with some precip before the main low comes into play).  I think the message is that there will be some kind of overrunning event that will be impacted by whereever the freezing line sets up.

floop-gfs-2022022306.prateptype_cat.conus-6z-feb25-26-storm-animated-02232022.gif

floop-ecmwf_full-2022022300.prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus-0z-feb25-26-storm-animated-02232022.gif

floop-nam-2022022306.ref1km_ptype.conus-6z-feb24-26-storm-animated-02232022.gif

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Just my opinion, but I think this will be mainly rain for the 95 corridor. Don't think it will accrete too much even if the temp hovers around 31-32. Temps going to be 70 today and we don't fall below freezing until the event really starts and even then it's going to be 30-32F. Add in the heavy precip rates, and I just don't see much ice accretion on anything but especially pavement. Lehigh Valley/Pocono's is a different story, I'd be concerned if I lived up there.

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17 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Just my opinion, but I think this will be mainly rain for the 95 corridor. Don't think it will accrete too much even if the temp hovers around 31-32. Temps going to be 70 today and we don't fall below freezing until the event really starts and even then it's going to be 30-32F. Add in the heavy precip rates, and I just don't see much ice accretion on anything but especially pavement. Lehigh Valley/Pocono's is a different story, I'd be concerned if I lived up there.

100%

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29 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Just my opinion, but I think this will be mainly rain for the 95 corridor. Don't think it will accrete too much even if the temp hovers around 31-32. Temps going to be 70 today and we don't fall below freezing until the event really starts and even then it's going to be 30-32F. Add in the heavy precip rates, and I just don't see much ice accretion on anything but especially pavement. Lehigh Valley/Pocono's is a different story, I'd be concerned if I lived up there.

Agreed. First, it's late Feb, not mid January. Second, we don't have cold air established. The combination of warm ground and heavy rates aren't ideal. Not saying there won't be some accretion on trees and cooler surfaces, but I think we'll be okay down here. LV and Pocono's the threat is more serious.

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46 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Just my opinion, but I think this will be mainly rain for the 95 corridor. Don't think it will accrete too much even if the temp hovers around 31-32. Temps going to be 70 today and we don't fall below freezing until the event really starts and even then it's going to be 30-32F. Add in the heavy precip rates, and I just don't see much ice accretion on anything but especially pavement. Lehigh Valley/Pocono's is a different story, I'd be concerned if I lived up there.

Generally we do switch from a mix to rain down this way but we have a number of members who are from up there and even the closer-in NW 'burbs, so I definitely wouldn't dismiss this.  I don't think it will get to be 70 outside of maybe the most southern parts of the CWA (e.g., Delmarva, etc) and that warmth is ahead of the down-sloping caused by an incoming cold front with some serious (but modified as it moves east) cold from the upper MW.  Right now, the cold air has just moved across the western PA border from OH (image from NCEP's 9:30 am surface temp obs) and the front is supposed to come through later this afternoon.  The high tomorrow is going to be in the low to mid 30s before the event actually starts (which is supposed to be in the afternoon and go overnight).  It will be a thread the needle thing depending on where the freezing line sets up.

sfcgif14Z_small.gif

 

current-surface-temps-14-UTC-Feb-23-2022-annotated-02232022.PNG

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I absolutely disagree with todays MT Holly discussion.  Again, with  almost a million people in the Lehigh Valley metro area and the most heavily traveled truck corridor in the northeast, why are they being so laissez faire? When did weather forecasting become a non- physical geographical science?  No where is the LV mentioned as having a even a  potential significant ice accretions, yet the lower Delaware Valley and NJ is mentioned in the discussion as getting less than .1 of in of ice? You know , there are people who live north of the fall line and we are no longer in hicksville.

 

Why is the LV split in half with a winter storm watch when the entire LV is covered by hills and mountains with many of the highest elevations along South Mountains in Lehigh County? I am so tired of the forecast discussions leaving out the LV region but being thrown in as an afterthought.  Its time for a change guys as there are more  people in the LV than in some states,  We are geographically pinned  by the Appalachian Mts on one side and South Mountains on the other side and the valley base elevations are  hundreds of feet higher than even lower than Bucks County. PLease, Please, Stop talking about interstates as dividing lines for the types of precip but start talking about the mountain ranges. Man made - Interstates are being substituted for physical geography features. Stop dumbing it down. When you mention north of I-78, I-78 lies between two mountain ranges plus the interstate lies at the bottom of the Valley.  If you are going to separate regions for precip amounts, please use South Mountains/Blue Mts or even the fall line as you basis for determining precip types, not 1-78.  When in doubt , err on the cautionary  side when issuing watches/warnings  and list  the entire Valley as a watch/warning. In otherwards, it physically does not snow and ice five  inches in Bethlehem but not in Allentown since both cities border each other by one simple street. Do you even know that Lehigh University lies directly on top of  South  Mountain but both counties go through Lehigh University?  Did you know that Salisbury Township in Lehigh County  lies directly on top of South Mountain as well as Upper Saucon Township in Lehigh County?  Did you guys know that huge PPL transmission lines cross the S Mountain and there are major electric substations located on this mountain range and  that if the ice accretion on these facilities is severe, the power will go out for residents as far south as Telford PA?  Its time for a visit out of the MT Holly office in NJ to see the physical geography of the  LV  when forecasting weather and not behind a  computer screen looking up confidence levels. 

 

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Really no significant changes to the forecast for the Thursday and
Friday storm system as model agreement and consistency remain fairly
strong. With this, we were able to issue a Winter Storm Watch for
the northern parts of our forecast area where warning-level total
snowfall is possible. This watch is in effect from 7 pm
Thursday through 6 pm Friday. For other portions of the area,
there is growing confidence for impactful freezing rain, but
opted to refrain from issuing a watch for these areas with more
advisory-level conditions likely. Will continue to message these
concerns through the HWO and social media.

Low pressure will track out of the Tennessee Valley and up the
western side of the Appalachians into the headwaters of the Ohio
over western Pennsylvania. With high pressure to our north over
Ontario and Quebec, the warm front ahead of the system will remain
mostly shunted to our south, though warm air will nudge northward as
the front finally lifts through the Delmarva Peninsula Friday and a
new coastal low forms over our area. The new 06Z run of the NAM has
become a little more progressive and shifted north a touch with the
storm, favoring the western parent low a little longer and spawning
the new low over southern New Jersey rather than a little offshore.
This slight shift kept enough uncertainty to not issue a watch any
further south at this time.

Continued to favor a Canadian and NAM blend for the low-level
temperatures through this period to capture the CAD. QPF amounts
remain steady so snowfall and ice amounts haven`t changed much with
this new forecast cycle. With the slight northward shift, am
thinking there may be a little more freezing rain rather than sleet
over much of southeastern PA and central NJ. Other guidance sounding
slam the higher terrain where the watch has been issued with heavy
sleet Friday morning and early afternoon. Am not quite as confident
in how far the freezing rain line will stall over our northern
portions of the CWA, but think this may be around the I-80 corridor.
A good thud of snow is likely to start the event as a weak vort max
moves east along and north of the warm front. There may be a little
lull before precip fills back in as the surface low moves closer
from the west early Thursday night.

Total snowfall amounts range from a few tenths of an inch over the
urban corridor to 4-6 inches in the Poconos and Sussex County, NJ.
Ice amounts still remain from one to two tenths of an inch across
much of southeastern PA and into central New Jersey. These amounts
area little lower over the Poconos and Sussex County, NJ with sleet
and snow holding on a little longer in these places. Total liquid
precipitation amounts range from a half to one inch south of
Philadelphia to one to one and a quarter inches north of the city
over the Lehigh Valley and into northern New Jersey.

Travel will be impacted from the combination of wintry precip,
especially Friday morning. Cannot rule out power outages and minor
tree damage, but the system looks progressive enough that ice totals
aren`t quite high enough for Ice Storm Warnings and those
significant threats.

&&
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21 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

Mr NAM doubles ZR in LV with .50”

 

16 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

I absolutely disagree with todays MT Holly discussion.  Again, with  almost a million people in the Lehigh Valley metro area and the most heavily traveled truck corridor in the northeast, why are they being so laissez faire? When did weather forecasting become a non- physical geographical science?  No where is the LV mentioned as having a even a  potential significant ice accretions, yet the lower Delaware Valley and NJ is mentioned in the discussion as getting less than .1 of in of ice? You know , there are people who live north of the fall line and we are no longer in hicksville.

 

Why is the LV split in half with a winter storm watch when the entire LV is covered by hills and mountains with many of the highest elevations along South Mountains in Lehigh County? I am so tired of the forecast discussions leaving out the LV region but being thrown in as an afterthought.  Its time for a change guys as there are more  people in the LV than in some states,  We are geographically pinned  by the Appalachian Mts on one side and South Mountains on the other side and the valley base elevations are  hundreds of feet higher than even lower than Bucks County. PLease, Please, Stop talking about interstates as dividing lines for the types of precip but start talking about the mountain ranges. Man made - Interstates are being substituted for physical geography features. Stop dumbing it down. When you mention north of I-78, I-78 lies between two mountain ranges plus the interstate lies at the bottom of the Valley.  If you are going to separate regions for precip amounts, please use South Mountains/Blue Mts or even the fall line as you basis for determining precip types, not 1-78.  When in doubt , err on the cautionary  side when issuing watches/warnings  and list  the entire Valley as a watch/warning. In otherwards, it physically does not snow and ice five  inches in Bethlehem but not in Allentown since both cities border each other by one simple street. Do you even know that Lehigh University lies directly on top of  South  Mountain but both counties go through Lehigh University?  Did you know that Salisbury Township in Lehigh County  lies directly on top of South Mountain as well as Upper Saucon Township in Lehigh County?  Did you guys know that huge PPL transmission lines cross the S Mountain and there are major electric substations located on this mountain range and  that if the ice accretion on these facilities is severe, the power will go out for residents as far south as Telford PA?  Its time for a visit out of the MT Holly office in NJ to see the physical geography of the  LV  when forecasting weather and not behind a  computer screen looking up confidence levels. 

 

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Really no significant changes to the forecast for the Thursday and
Friday storm system as model agreement and consistency remain fairly
strong. With this, we were able to issue a Winter Storm Watch for
the northern parts of our forecast area where warning-level total
snowfall is possible. This watch is in effect from 7 pm
Thursday through 6 pm Friday. For other portions of the area,
there is growing confidence for impactful freezing rain, but
opted to refrain from issuing a watch for these areas with more
advisory-level conditions likely. Will continue to message these
concerns through the HWO and social media.

Low pressure will track out of the Tennessee Valley and up the
western side of the Appalachians into the headwaters of the Ohio
over western Pennsylvania. With high pressure to our north over
Ontario and Quebec, the warm front ahead of the system will remain
mostly shunted to our south, though warm air will nudge northward as
the front finally lifts through the Delmarva Peninsula Friday and a
new coastal low forms over our area. The new 06Z run of the NAM has
become a little more progressive and shifted north a touch with the
storm, favoring the western parent low a little longer and spawning
the new low over southern New Jersey rather than a little offshore.
This slight shift kept enough uncertainty to not issue a watch any
further south at this time.

Continued to favor a Canadian and NAM blend for the low-level
temperatures through this period to capture the CAD. QPF amounts
remain steady so snowfall and ice amounts haven`t changed much with
this new forecast cycle. With the slight northward shift, am
thinking there may be a little more freezing rain rather than sleet
over much of southeastern PA and central NJ. Other guidance sounding
slam the higher terrain where the watch has been issued with heavy
sleet Friday morning and early afternoon. Am not quite as confident
in how far the freezing rain line will stall over our northern
portions of the CWA, but think this may be around the I-80 corridor.
A good thud of snow is likely to start the event as a weak vort max
moves east along and north of the warm front. There may be a little
lull before precip fills back in as the surface low moves closer
from the west early Thursday night.

Total snowfall amounts range from a few tenths of an inch over the
urban corridor to 4-6 inches in the Poconos and Sussex County, NJ.
Ice amounts still remain from one to two tenths of an inch across
much of southeastern PA and into central New Jersey. These amounts
area little lower over the Poconos and Sussex County, NJ with sleet
and snow holding on a little longer in these places. Total liquid
precipitation amounts range from a half to one inch south of
Philadelphia to one to one and a quarter inches north of the city
over the Lehigh Valley and into northern New Jersey.

Travel will be impacted from the combination of wintry precip,
especially Friday morning. Cannot rule out power outages and minor
tree damage, but the system looks progressive enough that ice totals
aren`t quite high enough for Ice Storm Warnings and those
significant threats.

&&

 

6 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

I agree , Northampton under a watch but nothing mentioned for Lehigh?

 

 

whatever, it’s pretty common with them the past few years

 

Here is a link to Mt. Holly's Winter Weather Criteria for Warnings/Advisories (the page uses a mouse-over feature to show the regions and it will display the criteria legends at the bottom but I snap-shotted them to make it easier) - https://www.weather.gov/phi/criteria-winter

Each region within the CWA has different criteria for what triggers use of each product.

Screenshot 2022-02-23 102546-winterstormwarning-02232022.png

Screenshot 2022-02-23 102752-winterweatheradvisory-02232022.png

Screenshot 2022-02-23 102844-snowsquallwarning-02232022.png

Screenshot 2022-02-23 102928-icestormwarning-02232022.png

Screenshot 2022-02-23 103013-blizzardwarning-02232022.png

Screenshot 2022-02-23 103059-windchillwatch-warning-02232022.png

Screenshot 2022-02-23 103148-windchilladvisory-02232022.png

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19 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

Yes, however Northampton is the same criteria as Lehigh….. 

 

the last few years they’ve gotten very weird with the Lehigh valley. 

I think that Watch up there was aimed at snow for up that way (since the early morning and current AFDs) -

Quote
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Really no significant changes to the forecast for the Thursday and
Friday storm system as model agreement and consistency remain fairly
strong. With this, we were able to issue a Winter Storm Watch for
the northern parts of our forecast area where warning-level total
snowfall is possible. This watch is in effect from 7 pm
Thursday through 6 pm Friday. For other portions of the area,
there is growing confidence for impactful freezing rain, but
opted to refrain from issuing a watch for these areas with more
advisory-level conditions likely. Will continue to message these
concerns through the HWO and social media.

I think they are going to throw a WWA up for the LV and maybe have a SPS for the northern portions of the next set of counties below that and then nothing for Philly metro S/E where a mix/rain would not have much of an impact outside of nuisance stuff.

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