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Potential of Widespread Snow/ Mixed Precipitation 2/25


sferic
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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

This system has loads of issues tbh. Look at RGEM storm track before secondary takes over, thats to Jamestown.  :lol:And look at dry slot alleghany to Syracuse. 

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_74.png

That's pretty much how I described it earlier. Precip waning away as it moves towards Syracuse and then bands refiring to the South and east as secondary takes over. I have seen it over and over and over here. This setup sucks for Syracuse and is why our totals have been so low these past several years. I fully intend for this area to underachieve...and that's not me being "negative." It is what it is...and that is still frustrating.

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9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Those maps are never accurate with the warm air above surface. You can take those maps and move the sleet line 50-75 miles north. Its happened with every event this year. That's unless the secondary takes over quicker which would limit the warm air intrusion with primary. 

That still leaves most of us safe. Why so worried? I agree with you about 25-50 miles with the 850

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5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

He is probably just stating his concerns. These systems are not clear cut and dry. Lots of messy dry layers and warm layers. They tend to have very inconsistent snowfall totals spread throughout a region as a result of this.

SWFE are actually known for the uniform snow totals, this looks like the case here.  Also always get a late bump NW and warm air in the mid levels tends to outperform

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6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

SWFE are actually known for the uniform snow totals, this looks like the case here.  Also always get a late bump NW and warm air in the mid levels tends to outperform

They have been quite inconsistent in these parts this year. Maybe consistent within a long, narrow band...but like I said, they've been accompanied by lots of different layers leading to varying totals within short distances.

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