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Potential of Widespread Snow/ Mixed Precipitation 2/25


sferic
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14 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Check out that narrow jackpot zone and that cutoff to the south. Would be a nice hit for the parched areas.

image.thumb.png.e900b36b6942437c47bf4712a2f076dc.png

I’m in that northern edge of the red zone here in the extreme southern dacks. It’s actually still snowing here in that frame so I imagine the map would be even more if it went out further.

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..Winter Headlines Possible Thursday Night through Friday...

Thursday will be mainly dry as a light northerly wind persists
across the region. Flow in the mid-levels becomes southerly and warm
air advection begins from south to north across the region Thursday.
Temperatures remain cold at the surface with highs in the low to mid
20s and low 30s across the far western Southern Tier. The pattern
becomes amplified Thursday night as a shortwave trough tracks across
the Plains. A dual upper level jet structure will aide in further
development of surface low pressure over the central/southern
Appalachians while a secondary low forms off the east coast late
Thursday night. Increasing moisture will occur across New York State
while warm air advection increases. A widespread snow fall will move
into western NY late Thursday evening and become widespread across
western NY overnight. Snow will likely reach the North Country late
Thursday night. As warm air continues to surge northward 850mb
temperatures will approach 0C across the far western Southern Tier
by Friday morning. The primary surface low will move into western
Pennsylvania while the 850mb low is over Lake Erie. There might be a
window of a few hours that mixed precipitation moves into locations
near the NY/PA border Friday morning. For Thursday night, a
widespread 1-3 inches of snow is possible across the North Country
to the Finger Lakes and Niagara Frontier and 2-5 inches south in the
western Southern Tier Thursday night. Lower confidence in snow
totals across the western Southern Tier due to the chance of a
changeover to a wintry mix. More precipitation expected into Friday,
see below.

The approaching shortwave trough will move overhead Friday while the
primary surface low over western Pennsylvania phases rapidly with
the coastal low. An intensifying upper level jet over northern New
England and phasing surface lows will shift deeper moisture and
large scale ascent rapidly to the coast. Snow will continue Friday
as an easterly moisture fetch persists across the region. Cold air
will wrap around the surface low resulting in lake enhancement by
Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Any chance of a wintry mix
across the western Southern Tier Friday morning will quickly end as
cold air moves into the region later Friday. Additional snowfall
accumulation of a few inches is possible Friday-Friday evening.
Winter Weather Headlines are possible from Thursday night through
Friday night. Temperatures will reach the 20s across most of the
region Friday with some low to mid 30s near the NY/PA border. Cold,
Friday night with temperatures in the single digits across the
region.

Lake effect snow will continue on the backside of this system
Saturday and Saturday night. Snow showers will likely start south-
southeast of the Lakes Saturday and move northward into Saturday
night. Another shortwave trough may move into the Great Lakes Sunday
into Monday resulting in another chance for snow showers across the
region
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1 hour ago, yankees102110 said:

I’m in that northern edge of the red zone here in the extreme southern dacks. It’s actually still snowing here in that frame so I imagine the map would be even more if it went out further.

 

17 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

I'm within the jack zone, so toss all guidance.

 

7 minutes ago, CoolMikeWx said:

We're right outside the jack zone so please send guidance 50 miles south. We haven't gotten a 12 inch event down here in the HV this year.

Thanks!



On a side note, this should setup next weekend to be a good riding weekend (the 4th) along with the few other potential events for next week.
 

It's looking good for all you guys. 

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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:
..Winter Headlines Possible Thursday Night through Friday...

Thursday will be mainly dry as a light northerly wind persists
across the region. Flow in the mid-levels becomes southerly and warm
air advection begins from south to north across the region Thursday.
Temperatures remain cold at the surface with highs in the low to mid
20s and low 30s across the far western Southern Tier. The pattern
becomes amplified Thursday night as a shortwave trough tracks across
the Plains. A dual upper level jet structure will aide in further
development of surface low pressure over the central/southern
Appalachians while a secondary low forms off the east coast late
Thursday night. Increasing moisture will occur across New York State
while warm air advection increases. A widespread snow fall will move
into western NY late Thursday evening and become widespread across
western NY overnight. Snow will likely reach the North Country late
Thursday night. As warm air continues to surge northward 850mb
temperatures will approach 0C across the far western Southern Tier
by Friday morning. The primary surface low will move into western
Pennsylvania while the 850mb low is over Lake Erie. There might be a
window of a few hours that mixed precipitation moves into locations
near the NY/PA border Friday morning. For Thursday night, a
widespread 1-3 inches of snow is possible across the North Country
to the Finger Lakes and Niagara Frontier and 2-5 inches south in the
western Southern Tier Thursday night. Lower confidence in snow
totals across the western Southern Tier due to the chance of a
changeover to a wintry mix. More precipitation expected into Friday,
see below.

The approaching shortwave trough will move overhead Friday while the
primary surface low over western Pennsylvania phases rapidly with
the coastal low. An intensifying upper level jet over northern New
England and phasing surface lows will shift deeper moisture and
large scale ascent rapidly to the coast. Snow will continue Friday
as an easterly moisture fetch persists across the region. Cold air
will wrap around the surface low resulting in lake enhancement by
Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Any chance of a wintry mix
across the western Southern Tier Friday morning will quickly end as
cold air moves into the region later Friday. Additional snowfall
accumulation of a few inches is possible Friday-Friday evening.
Winter Weather Headlines are possible from Thursday night through
Friday night. Temperatures will reach the 20s across most of the
region Friday with some low to mid 30s near the NY/PA border. Cold,
Friday night with temperatures in the single digits across the
region.

Lake effect snow will continue on the backside of this system
Saturday and Saturday night. Snow showers will likely start south-
southeast of the Lakes Saturday and move northward into Saturday
night. Another shortwave trough may move into the Great Lakes Sunday
into Monday resulting in another chance for snow showers across the
region

I’d like to say I’ve never seen the NWS so confused but I’d be lying…

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17 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

I speak for @yankees102110when I say we support this solution.

Climo out this way for a SWFE is fairly similar to much of New England, with a pretty straightforward 6-10" for most.  Quick in and quick out, unless the Mohawk-Hudson convergence can set up, depending on low level winds and when/where the secondary takes over.  It would easily be the best event of the season for most of us in Eastern areas however.  

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