Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: How do you like my tongue Finish him! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Here is why that area in interior NE MA and adjacent SNH could do very well. Notice the low level temp gradient near Ray. Now look at those 850 winds out of the east and north of the 850 front. That's kind of what Will and Chris were saying. There is also still weak WAA at 850, so you have a mechanism for some lift. That could be a nice spot with the combo of a CF and that cold, erly flow at 850. Yeah there is going to be some CF enhancement on this storm too....The combo of CF enhancement and wherever the mid-level WF slows down and starts to slide east is where they could get smoked...like a 12-16" spot....and right now the best spot for that looks like NE MA and SE NH....maybe back down 495 to near ORH assuming we don't see any northward ticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 14.1 That would be my biggest storm since December 2020. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Finish him! Ginxy jackn would explain the constant smiles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: That would be my biggest storm since December 2020. That’s 14 months. You make it sound like 5 years.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, HinghamBoss said: Wow, feels like I am going to be living right on the edge of advisory vs warning snows. A few days ago I would have laughed off the possibility of 6"+ here. Now I sit here and look at the models and wonder...is 6-8" possibility? What's your take for our area, @CoastalWx Earlier this morning I thought 4-7....5-8ish. I more confidence in the middle to higher end. I'd probably wait until after 00z runs to up anything. Still some things that need to be worked out. East winds eventually will warm us up to probably 33 if/when it does turn to sleet. But still cold aloft, and there maybe an additional inch or more in the evening as it cools off and the flow aloft is still NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Boy Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 After viewing the 12z suite, I’d say Tip FTW. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Replaced by the GRAF which has been way too cold. But since the weenies asked.... That's actually more realistic than earlier runs. That likes my area down to near Shrewsbury, like you and Will mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah there is going to be some CF enhancement on this storm too....The combo of CF enhancement and wherever the mid-level WF slows down and starts to slide east is where they could get smoked...like a 12-16" spot....and right now the best spot for that looks like NE MA and SE NH....maybe back down 495 to near ORH assuming we don't see any northward ticks. What if we see south ticks? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, Sunny Boy said: After viewing the 12z suite, I’d say Tip FTW. At 48 hours out? Premature Boy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Looks good for at least 6" and probably all snow here. Early start to NH school vacation for the kids. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 I'll sell the HRRR thermals. That ain't getting warmer air past KCON. So Friday aftn is sold on the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Tickle down another inch or two late day/ evening of fluff Boy how quickly you've changed your tune. I guess youve decided to throw away good ole Namy. Lololol I can't with you man. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 14.4 Thanks. That will put me well above climo avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What if we see south ticks? Then the jackpot zone would prob shift to like metro-west along 128 down into N RI just on the cold side of the CF and you can add 2-4" to your totals in N CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, Sunny Boy said: After viewing the 12z suite, I’d say Tip FTW. He does feel like he has been at the front of this for many pages of this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Forgive me but all the “jackin’ talk” reminds me of this hilarious episode: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 18 minutes ago, weathafella said: That’s 14 months. You make it sound like 5 years.... It feels like five years tho’ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 18z NAM coming in with stronger confluence....shocker I know. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 18z NAM big jump south... no surprise As the anomaly in this setup, it was useless 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Still warmest of all guidance, but it did correct a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, wxsniss said: 18z NAM big jump south... no surprise As the anomaly in this setup, it was useless Not as big a jump as expected from confluence, but a definite trend south Still on the much warmer end of the spectrum Good hit for SNH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 I don't know if i would label that a big jump, It looked like a couple tics south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, wxsniss said: Not as big a jump as expected from confluence, but a definite trend south Still on the much warmer end of the spectrum Good hit for SNH It still looks bizarre, and its behavior is changed not much from the last run. Needless to say what it suggests deviates entirely from the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: I don't know if i would label that a big jump, It looked like a couple tics south. For the pike region it’s a big difference in sensible wx though. Delays taint 3 hours and by then things are starting to shut down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2022 Author Share Posted February 23, 2022 heh... jackpot could very well be where I'm located here in Ayer. In fact, I could see 15 or so mi either side of a line from Petersham, me, Lowell, Methuen maxing... Still time to wiggle S(N) but for now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Still warmest of all guidance, but it did correct a bit. Yeah it went south and is still the warmest....tells you how much of an outlier it was at 12z. I'll bet it comes south again at 00z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: I don't know if i would label that a big jump, It looked like a couple tics south. Agree A tick south and still synoptically has that vort max further north than other guidance. Not yet the cave that other guidance supports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, wxsniss said: Agree A tick south and still synoptically has that vort max further north than other guidance. Not yet the cave that other guidance supports. Yes, In the end, The secondary was almost identical to 12z over 42/68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it went south and is still the warmest....tells you how much of an outlier it was at 12z. I'll bet it comes south again at 00z. Yeah I would agree. Especially if Reggie holds or ticks south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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