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Feb 24-25, 2022 Ice/Sleet/Rain/Snow (yeah sure) Storm Thread


WinterWxLuvr
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6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Just saw what the Euro spit out . Pretty nuts . Doesn't get northern tier above freezing till 11am or so on Friday.  Half of that zrain would be a significant event on trees and power lines . All guidance appears  onboard for possible significant icing in the favored areas. 

Agreed, first it was the GFS was on it's own.  Then the high resolutions were thrown out because of range.  NOW, the formally warm Euro is fully on board for the Norther tier, as is the Canadian.  This could be very bad up here overnight Thursday.

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Pretty straightforward .Strong Banana high .Temps go below freezing Wed evening and stay at or below in many favored areas till mid to late  morning Friday verbatim. Roughly 36 hours. Most precip is over by then. Tomorrow's 12z runs should settle in on the specifics more hopefully. 

Guidance has definitely zeroed in on most of Pennsylvania getting a really hard hit with ice . It's almost a lock for them . Far northern tier of Md  is gaining support fast to join them imo. 

Don’t think you got the joke. 

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4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Hell, I don’t know how many there are supposed to be lol. 
 

No worries about it being right outside of an hour or two

Real talk, I think this might be a decent event for your neck of the woods and points NNW of you.  I mean, it's not going to be a world ender, but hey...it's activity I guess.

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The high does have staying power though... it fades but doesn't run off the to the east with rapid return flow.  Typically, these trend colder as we near game time.  I know my local climo though, 33.8 with rain is most likely. Just a little elevation to the the north could be in for a nasty icing event, imo.

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     I think I'm buying on sleet and freezing rain for at least a while in much of the area.     Even if the sfc temps are too cold in the NAMs (and I'm not convinced that they are), it's pretty clear that there will be a fairly deep layer below freezing just above.    Shows up really well on the NAM Nest:

 

nam3km_2022022300_fh51_sounding_38.80N_77_06W.thumb.png.e75f9d7b7b55c0e748358aa23432dc0d.png

 

        Even the GFS has the same idea - the cold layer isn't as cold or as deep, but it's there.     The winds in that cold layer are southeast, so it won't be able to hold in for the whole night (until you get further north), but I think that the idea of a cold layer near the ground during the late afternoon and evening could very well be correct.     The biggest wild card is actual precip, as there is still limited agreement on the QPF details.

    

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

On a more serious note -- I'm somewhat skeptical it accretes that perfectly at 30-32 degrees and moderate/heavy precip. Timing has "improved" so it has that going for it.

        This is a fair point.     None of these accumulation computations is making any attempt to determine how efficiently the ice can accrete.    They're just looking for freezing rain as the precip type at the top of the hour, and if that is found, all of the QPF from the past hour (or in some cases, 3 or 6 hours!) goes into the freezing rain bucket.    In fact, only the RAP/HRRR actually have a true tallies of freezing rain and sleet.

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